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Old 03-20-2017, 01:08 PM   #1441
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Theoretically I'm in lock step here, but the caveat is that unlike many other measurements of the importance of the economy, for most Albertans, it can't get much worse than it already is. A massive budget deficit is, in my opinion, not necessarily as big of a problem as traditional conservatives might feel.

You and I can fret about the idea of such a massive debt, but most people are so politically illiterate that I don't think it's going to trickle down that much if people aren't feeling the pain directly.

Many albertans have already absorbed significant pain from the decline of energy revenue, I am not sure they are interested in having their public services impacted to the same degree they've been impacted personally.

That's the big difference between 80s/90s albertans and 00/10 albertans. When Klein was making massive cuts people in the province were largely still doing ok. I don't think the population has the appetite these days to put up with public service cuts at the same time they are cutting budgets in their own homes.

I honestly just don't think the electorate cares that much anymore about the economy in the terms traditional conservatism care about it. The economy is no longer something that needs stewardship, it's always just sort of there and no one feels the boom or the bust as significantly anymore without breadlines.
Obviously you kept your job and didn't have anyone around you lose theirs​? Otherwise the economy absolutely has had an impact on people! I have no idea how you could conclude it doesn't.

But regardless, if a party gets over half of the votes Cowboy89 suggests, they win in a complete landslide. That's going to be an enormous majority.
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Old 03-20-2017, 01:08 PM   #1442
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Old 03-20-2017, 01:10 PM   #1443
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I think we should be more concerned about how poor the PC Propaganda machine is at sock-puppeting. It's a pretty high-level of incompetence to not know Google Image Search exists.
Random people do a kinds of silly things online. One MLA had some questionable images on her account, not all that long ago for example.
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Old 03-20-2017, 01:11 PM   #1444
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Random people do a kinds of silly things online. One MLA had some questionable images on her account, not all that long ago for example.
"Over-zealous staffer"
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Old 03-20-2017, 01:15 PM   #1445
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But more importantly, this all ignores that just five years ago, nearly 80% of this province voted for a conservative party.
They voted for a PC party that had moved squarely to the centre. That's how the PCs stayed in power so long - they adapted and shifted to the centre of political gravity in the province, and for the last 10-15 years that movement was steadily to the left. Alison Redford won the PC leadership, and the election, with the backing of teachers, nurses, and soccer moms. The central plank of her platform was building dozens of new schools.

Those centrist PCs supporters are who handed the last election to the NDP. If they're looking for a political home now, I have a hard time imagining them shifting to the PC/WR.

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You're still trapping yourself into thinking the NDP rise was the result of a sudden change in demographics rather than acknowledging the NDP got in on a protest vote. The NDP did not win because everyone suddenly started thinking like you Cliff, they won because the Redford/Prentice PCs sucked and everyone wanted a change.
Yes, they wanted a change. They wanted a change of government/party, but the didn't want a dramatic change in policy. The right wing of the old PC party will be happy to merge with the WR. The centre-left won't. You're underestimating how big that latter group is.
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Old 03-20-2017, 01:21 PM   #1446
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Those centrist PCs supporters are who handed the last election to the NDP. If they're looking for a political home now, I have a hard time imagining them shifting to the PC/WR.
You'd think... but as you just said, they handed the last election to the PCs. This is a bloc of voters who lean slightly to the right, by this province's political spectrum of measurement. The journey to the right from there to the PC/WR from there is a shorter trip than it is to the left to joint the NDP, and well, that happened. If they didn't want a "dramatic change in policy", they were probably a touch surprised. I suspect the platform of this new united party will be closer to what the PCs were doing than the NDP's government strategy has been.

The lesson from that last election seems to be that when people's vote is cast for "anyone but these guys again", you're less concerned with just how closely the people you end up voting for actually reflect your politics.
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Old 03-20-2017, 01:23 PM   #1447
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Obviously you kept your job and didn't have anyone around you lose theirs​? Otherwise the economy absolutely has had an impact on people! I have no idea how you could conclude it doesn't.
I don't know how you can read my point and come to this conclusion.

This is the very first sentence:

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Theoretically I'm in lock step here, but the caveat is that unlike many other measurements of the importance of the economy, for most Albertans, it can't get much worse than it already is.
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Old 03-20-2017, 01:47 PM   #1448
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But regardless, if a party gets over half of the votes Cowboy89 suggests, they win in a complete landslide. That's going to be an enormous majority.
Plus the 20-30% NDP is highly centralized in Edm. They could easily lose every seat outside of there.

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They voted for a PC party that had moved squarely to the centre. That's how the PCs stayed in power so long - they adapted and shifted to the centre of political gravity in the province, and for the last 10-15 years that movement was steadily to the left.
Disagree, the slow shift to the left caused the Wildrose to gain support and bleed off their right flank, they lost support steadily as time went on. If they had stayed centre right the Wildrose would never have gained traction. The party lost it's way and is now going back to where it had it's highest support. The new party will get 90% of the WR vote and probably 75% of the PC voters which should be around 50% of voters.
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Old 03-20-2017, 01:51 PM   #1449
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Just got robocalled by the "Alberta NDP Caucus", it was a two question survey.
1) Is the NDP on the right track?
2) What is your postal code?

I assume because the call identified as from the caucus rather than the government that taxpayers aren't paying for that crap. Love to see their faces when they get the results.
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Old 03-20-2017, 02:07 PM   #1450
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Yes, they wanted a change. They wanted a change of government/party, but the didn't want a dramatic change in policy. The right wing of the old PC party will be happy to merge with the WR. The centre-left won't. You're underestimating how big that latter group is.
And you are overestimating it.
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Old 03-20-2017, 08:06 PM   #1451
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The right wing of the old PC party will be happy to merge with the WR. The centre-left won't. You're underestimating how big that latter group is.
The last person who thought there was a massive invisible group of centre-left voters that would carry them to victory lost to Donald Trump
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Old 03-20-2017, 08:20 PM   #1452
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The last person who thought there was a massive invisible group of centre-left voters that would carry them to victory lost to Donald Trump
This isn't America.

Last I checked, the most recent Albertan politician guilty of the same ignorance you're referencing lost to Rachel Notley.

Underestimate any political "side" and you'll wind up on the wrong side of the election results. All these staunch conservative Albertans, they're the ones who have to prove they still exist in numbers worthy of significance, not the centre-left.
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Old 03-20-2017, 08:53 PM   #1453
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All these staunch conservative Albertans, they're the ones who have to prove they still exist in numbers worthy of significance, not the centre-left.
Well that's kind of silly, if anything you might try to justify how the "centre left" is likely to win the next election. The latest polling (which is a trend) has the WR at 38% and the PC's at 29%. Obviously not every one of those voters will support the united party but even if you assume a reasonable amount do it's an easy win.

WR support is likely to go at least 80% to the new party, probably 90% but let's play it safe, that's 30% right there. PC support is likely to go at least 60% to the new party, probably 80% but again let's be safe, that's about 18% there. Combined that's 48%, that's not even close to a stretch, those are numbers that the PC's have pulled for ages before the rise of the Wildrose. The Wildrose votes that bleed off aren't going anywhere, they will either vote for a fringe party like the Alberta Party or they won't vote at all. The majority of PC votes that bleed off certainly won't be going to the NDP this time, not after this disaster. They will go back where they came from, the Liberals or maybe the Alberta Party.

Now consider that the Liberal and Alberta Party support is a mile wide and an inch deep. Also consider that the NDP are getting almost all of their vote from Edmonton, come election time when they look highly unlikely to win they might also bleed vote back to the Liberals who traditionally got that support. Add it all up and the odds of the NDP winning even a minority is pretty slim. If they did somehow manage to win a minority they would be defeated on the throne speech.
Edit: That assumes the merger doesn't happen somehow.

There is a reason the PC's held power for 40+ years, Alberta is a Conservative leaning province. If anything the performance of this disaster of a government will chase the leaners back to their traditional party.

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Old 03-20-2017, 08:58 PM   #1454
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Those centrist PCs supporters are who handed the last election to the NDP. If they're looking for a political home now, I have a hard time imagining them shifting to the PC/WR.



Yes, they wanted a change. They wanted a change of government/party, but the didn't want a dramatic change in policy. The right wing of the old PC party will be happy to merge with the WR. The centre-left won't. You're underestimating how big that latter group is.
~60% of Alberta voters who voted in the 2015 federal election voted for the conservative party of Canada. That means there's significant overlap of the PC party of Alberta vote and WR supporters. If you're to the right of Justin Trudeau, you're not voting for the Liberals, Alberta party or the NDP. Sure 60% isn't the 70% you get when you add the WR and PC party polling numbers together and therein lies your red tories, but any number above 45% is going to win the next election in a landslide and even if all of the non-conservative vote collapsed into one party it won't make a difference.
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Old 03-20-2017, 09:10 PM   #1455
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I think there are a few things that need to be done in order for a United party to win over the centre.

1) Put forward a token motion for the membership to approve that transgendered and homosexuals should be protected under the law. The lack of the WRs ability to pass this resolution has led directly to the current situation. The centre of Alberta and even the fiscal right will not tolerate the whiff of bigotry anymore.

2) Present a credible vision that is more than find efficiencies. There 2 billion in savings budget proposal is effectively get rid of the carbon tax and carbon tax spending (which doesn't fix the revenue problem) and to find 1 billion in efficicies. They need to have a credible plan to a balanced budget

3) Acknowledge that global warming exists and that there needs to be lip service paid to it for us to be credible internationally. This could just be leaving the Carbon tax as is and making it truly revenue neutral and cut the green spending and leaving the oil sands CO2 cap in place until it becomes inconvenient.

If they deliver a credible message on the 3 above items while still being fiscally conservative (wage freeze, gut management, cut business tax) They will easily get elected. However there is a very real risk that they go populist and use the Left as the out group to rally people against and try to scare the suburbs into voting for them while consolidating rural support.
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Old 03-20-2017, 09:13 PM   #1456
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Well that's kind of silly, if anything you might try to justify how the "centre left" is likely to win the next election. The latest polling (which is a trend) has the WR at 38% and the PC's at 29%. Obviously not every one of those voters will support the united party but even if you assume a reasonable amount do it's an easy win.

WR support is likely to go at least 80% to the new party, probably 90% but let's play it safe, that's 30% right there. PC support is likely to go at least 60% to the new party, probably 80% but again let's be safe, that's about 18% there. Combined that's 48%, that's not even close to a stretch, those are numbers that the PC's have pulled for ages before the rise of the Wildrose. The Wildrose votes that bleed off aren't going anywhere, they will either vote for a fringe party like the Alberta Party or they won't vote at all. The majority of PC votes that bleed off certainly won't be going to the NDP this time, not after this disaster. They will go back where they came from, the Liberals or maybe the Alberta Party.

Now consider that the Liberal and Alberta Party support is a mile wide and an inch deep. Also consider that the NDP are getting almost all of their vote from Edmonton, come election time when they look highly unlikely to win they might also bleed vote back to the Liberals who traditionally got that support. Add it all up and the odds of the NDP winning even a minority is pretty slim. If they did somehow manage to win a minority they would be defeated on the throne speech.

There is a reason the PC's held power for 40+ years, Alberta is a Conservative leaning province. If anything the performance of this disaster of a government will chase the leaners back to their traditional party.
Polls, especially this early, are completely meaningless. What's silly is you predicting the result of an election based on approval ratings two years out.

Lots of time, and I think you'd be surprised. NDP's approval rating hasn't dropped that drastically since they were elected (it's still higher than it was 6 months before they wont that election, by the way).

I think it's just a big, hilarious mistake that conservatives are bound to make again as history repeats itself and countless conservatives say "Well, the PC's held power for 40+ years! Alberta is conservative!" only to see the closest thing Alberta has to a major socialist party stroll to a majority victory. I hope it's not that mistake, but honestly, over-confident posts like yours give me zero confidence.

NDP won primarily on a protest vote, but if you believe they can't get in again based on a bad PC/WR platform, you'll get what you deserve by underestimating them and today's Albertan in general. The majority of people I know voted NDP and will vote NDP again, no hesitation. I don't know a single person who regrets their vote. I'm sure those people exist in big numbers, but as big as you imagine? Maybe not.

This isn't 1990. 40+ years of PC leadership is completely irrelevant, because the young people who started that reign are 60+ years old. Times change.

Last edited by PepsiFree; 03-20-2017 at 09:23 PM. Reason: I used the word "out" like... 5 times in a sentence
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Old 03-20-2017, 09:24 PM   #1457
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The majority of people I know voted NDP and will vote NDP again, no hesitation. I don't know a single person who regrets their vote. I'm sure those people exist in big numbers, but as big as you imagine? Maybe not.

This isn't 1990. 40+ years of PC leadership is completely irrelevant, because the young people who started that reign are 60+ years old. Times change.
I would suggest the people you know don't even come close to representing the average Albertan, I'm guessing you must be at camped out at the UofA or something. There are plenty of people in this thread who have admitted they voted NDP and wouldn't do so again. As Cowboy89 pointed out right after my post, 60% of Alberta voters voted Conservative federally in the last election, that lines right up with the combined Conservative vote provincially. This is not a one off poll, this is a long term trend. Someone else posted earlier that the average age of Albertan's really hasn't changed much so your age argument is pretty silly.

Last edited by Jacks; 03-20-2017 at 09:40 PM. Reason: deleted ageism part, I'm just as guilty in my comment.
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Old 03-20-2017, 09:30 PM   #1458
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Lots of time, and I think you'd be surprised. NDP's approval rating hasn't dropped that drastically since they were elected (it's still higher than it was 6 months before they wont that election, by the way).
Their approval rating is at 35%, that's about 20% lower than a month after the election. Not exactly a huge endorsement.
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Old 03-20-2017, 09:52 PM   #1459
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I would suggest the people you know don't even come close to representing the average Albertan, I'm guessing you must be at camped out at the UofA or something. There are plenty of people in this thread who have admitted they voted NDP and wouldn't do so again. As Cowboy89 pointed out right after my post, 60% of Alberta voters voted Conservative federally in the last election, that lines right up with the combined Conservative vote provincially. This is not a one off poll, this is a long term trend. Someone else posted earlier that the average age of Albertan's really hasn't changed much so your ageism argument is pretty silly.
Ageism? Oh brother, triggered! The average age doesn't change, but do you think a 20 year old today thinks the same as a 20 year old 40 years ago? I doubt it very much. They were raised in different eras, different formation of values, aware of different things. This isn't a comment on better or worse, but trends change because society changes and people change. The same factors that kept the PCs in for 40+ years might not exist anymore. It's not as simple as going back to the status quo.

The NDP didn't just win because the PC party needed a wake-up call, it won because the WR platform sucked to a lot of people. A portion of voters who voted PC last time did so because they didn't want to vote WR, the logical alternative if they wanted to ensure a conservative victory. If you're comfortable banking on all of those people saying "WR are joining the PCs? Come on in! My vote is the same even though I purposely didn't vote for them last time!" then, again, I think you're going to be sad in June 2019.

You can talk about the long term trend of voting Conservative all you want. Voting Social Credit was a long term trend to, until people decided to vote for the further-left PC party. But I'm sure Socreds dismissed the progressive trend right in front of their eyes as crazy people camped out at UofA too. I'm sure it made it hurt less.

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Their approval rating is at 35%, that's about 20% lower than a month after the election. Not exactly a huge endorsement.
And about 15% higher than it was 4 months before the last election, which they won. We're 26 months away from the next one. Not exactly "close enough to call" yet is it?

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Old 03-20-2017, 09:56 PM   #1460
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isnt there something to be said about the fact that Calgary is predominantly PC supporters whilst Edmonton NDP?

Given this is Calgarypuck... I wonder how many people read this site and interpret it as a reflection of the overall province's sentiment (likely not to support the NDP again).

Still, I do think the NDP are going to get destroyed, but I think it's due to their handling of the oil and gas sector overall- which impacts so many Albertans so greatly.
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