Edmonton is No Good Episode 4: New Rink, Same Stink

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Except the stats you posted prove his point (that someone other than the top guys were getting the majority of the money)

The cap has gone up by a shade over 87 percent since the first salary cap season (39 million to 73 million)

Yet for some reason the salary for the top five guys you mentioned should have been the following if the salaries of the top 5 guys had kept pace with the increase in the salary cap

1) 15.63 million
2) 14.21 million
3) 14.21 million
4) 14.21 million
5) 13.09 million

The top salaries have not kept up with the salary cap increase and likely will not keep up over time.

Except for the fact that the highest salary has also been CAPPED at 20% of the CAP in case you forgot.
So it went from $7.8 million ($39 million cap) to $15 million ($75 million cap).

Funny how a salary cap works to cap salary. Perplexing I know.

[CaptainCrunch]

Oh please force the Oilers to match 9.5.

McDaivid at 13 and Draisaitl at 9.5 22.5 or more then a quarter of your cap for two players.

Let the dismantling begin.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by nobles_point

Wrong. Your oversimplifying your narrative to support your hopes & dreams.

The NHL won the lockout. Why did you select salary before the lockout? Before the NHLPA took a rollback. Why does the NHLPA continually vote for the escalator if it doesn't care about maximizing player salary. You either didn't make or ignored these points.

The NHLPA wants as many teams as possible at the cap. The Oilers spend to the cap, the Jets don't. You think the NHLPA doesn't care if Laine gives the Jets a bargain deal next off season if he follows McDavid?

Any water your argument holds doesn't make the point that the NHLPA will maximize player salary all the time, every time & organizes player agents to carry this out.

The sweet heart deal John Tavares signed for an inept management group didn't go unnoticed. He lost out on millions.

They care about maximizing player salary.

I was debating the point that they are all about the top players. They clearly aren't.

If the NHLPA was all about getting the top players paid, there would probably be more than ZERO guys in the NHL making the max salary.

And we probably would have heard about some desire by the NHLPA to raise the max contract.

Neither of these things have happened.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think if the Oilers ultimately decide that they need Draisaitl carrying the second line, then this could be closer to a reality. Last year he scored at about a 50-point pace when separated from McDavid. I am sure he would provide solid to great second-line production, but that is not enough to warrant a +$9.0 m payout, and it will weaken the top line.

I was referring to the cap hit being unlikely, an oiler falling off the map is far from unlikely.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by IrishSpring2013

ive noticed oil stain is very sneaky in the way he debates and posts numbers.. see his talk about russells ice time in cgy and where he sat on the depth chart.. he had wideman and russel separated in two tiers.. but were within seconds of each other in ice time...

he is brutal for twisting the facts and figures to suit whatever side of the argument he is on.. this is no different.. posting top salaries the year BEFORE the major 2004-2005 lockout... so disingenuous..

I don't know how anyone could look at the NHL cap structure and not come to the conclusion that the middle class salaries have risen WAY more than the top salaries.


Iginla after the lockout. $7 million.

2107, 2 of the top players in the league (Kane, Kopitar, Toews)- $10 million.

Not much difference.



Compare that to someone like Mike Cammalleri:

In 06-07 he scored 80 points. His contract after- $3.3 million.

In 08/09 he had another big season for the Flames- 82 points. He gets $6 million.

After 5 injury plagued and relatively disappointing seasons for the Canadiens and Flames he gets signed by New Jersey for $5 million.


In 08/09 $6 million got you a first line all star.

Today it gets you 50 points.

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

They care about maximizing player salary.

I was debating the point that they are all about the top players. They clearly aren't.

If the NHLPA was all about getting the top players paid, there would probably be more than ZERO guys in the NHL making the max salary.

And we probably would have heard about some desire by the NHLPA to raise the max contract.

Neither of these things have happened.

So how exactly are the two things (maximizing avg & maximizing elite salary) mutually exclusive? They are not focused on one thing or the other, they are focused on both at the same time.

If the point you are trying to make is that they care about EVERY players salary, you are doing a poor job by focusing on a lack of elite players getting paid increasing amounts within a CBA featuring a cap on salary and elite player salary.

Your point about desire to raise the Max contract holds no water AGAIN because the players never wanted a salary cap in the first place, let alone one on % of a cap. Additionally, even if they wanted to raise max contracts in the salary cap era, (who says they didn't) they have more important components of the CBA to negotiate, such as maintaining revenue share. Every CBA negotiation since 1995 they have been in a position of weakness. Their breakdown of the NHLPA combined with the salary cap only ramps up and integrates the complexity of their weak position.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by nobles_point

So how exactly are the two things (maximizing avg & maximizing elite salary) mutually exclusive? They are not focused on one thing or the other, they are focused on both at the same time.

If the point you are trying to make is that they care about EVERY players salary, you are doing a poor job by focusing on a lack of elite players getting paid increasing amounts within a CBA featuring a cap on salary and elite player salary.

My point is that their primary position is not maximizing the elite salaries first and foremost. I thought I was pretty clear about that.

If they did care about maximizing elite salaries at the expense of others, then they are doing the worst job ever.

[You Need a Thneed]

Another team getting Drai to sign an offer sheet at something like $9.5 million would pretty much make it impossible for Edmonton to be a true contender, they would have to shed so much salary over the next two off seasons that They would be the least deep team in the league. All they have to do is get Edmonton to match.

And the management's policy of getting McD signed before Drai guarantees that other GMs will have the chance to do exactly that.

[united]

I think the sweet spot for most teams with Draisaitl would be $7.85 million x 5. Enticing to the player, Oilers overpay by at minimum $1 million/season, and you save a 1st-round pick in the unlikely scenario the Oilers decline to match. Either that or go $9.8 million x 5 and hope to hell the Oilers stick to their word by matching.

Average annual value Compensation
$1,295,571 or below Nothing
Over $1,295,571-$1,962,986 Third-round pick
Over $1,962,986-$3,925,975 Second-round pick
Over $3,925,975-$5,888,960 First and third-round picks
Over $5,888,960-$7,851,948 First, second and third-round picks
Over $7,851,948-$9,814,935 Two firsts, second and third-round picks
Over $9,814,935 Four first-round picks

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by united

I think the sweet spot for most teams with Draisaitl would be $7.85 million x 5. Enticing to the player, Oilers overpay by at minimum $1 million/season, and you save a 1st-round pick in the unlikely scenario the Oilers decline to match. Either that or go $9.8 million x 5 and hope to hell the Oilers stick to their word by matching.

Average annual value Compensation
$1,295,571 or below Nothing
Over $1,295,571-$1,962,986 Third-round pick
Over $1,962,986-$3,925,975 Second-round pick
Over $3,925,975-$5,888,960 First and third-round picks
Over $5,888,960-$7,851,948 First, second and third-round picks
Over $7,851,948-$9,814,935 Two firsts, second and third-round picks
Over $9,814,935 Four first-round picks

No one would sign him in the hopes it got matched. That's bad business. But I do think teams see that as a worthwhile consolation prize, like a win-win kind of scenario. And yes, I believe that screwing over Edmonton in particular has some currency around the league. 9 is the sweet spot where you can justify the contract and also may actually get him.

[Da_Chief]

If you're Carolina, why not? You have a young and upcoming team with goaltending you believe in, top young defence, up front you have Aho, Lindholm, Staal, Skinner, Rask..and 24 mill in cap space and only needing a 4th line (Ward/Lack/Stempniak/Wiesnewski buyout freeing up another $10 mill the year after to re-sign the young D-core). Why not throw 9.79 mill at Draisaitl and make them match if not you have a stud forward and likely finishing top 10 in the league for next few years.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by AC

I have a source that works with the Oilers in some capacity.

He said that the "Oilers are bracing for Draisaitl offer sheets along the lines of $9.5M x 7 years, and see McDavid signing $12-$13M."

That would be a crippling amount of cash tied up in 2 players.

I initially thought that Vegas may be a candidate to offer sheet him but they are clearly tanking for draft picks in upcoming drafts which removes them from the equation. Canucks badly need a top line center to replace Henrik but they are so rudderless you don't know if they are trying to accomplish month to month. Red Wings maybe?

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by united

I think the sweet spot for most teams with Draisaitl would be $7.85 million x 5. Enticing to the player, Oilers overpay by at minimum $1 million/season, and you save a 1st-round pick in the unlikely scenario the Oilers decline to match. Either that or go $9.8 million x 5 and hope to hell the Oilers stick to their word by matching.

Average annual value Compensation
$1,295,571 or below Nothing
Over $1,295,571-$1,962,986 Third-round pick
Over $1,962,986-$3,925,975 Second-round pick
Over $3,925,975-$5,888,960 First and third-round picks
Over $5,888,960-$7,851,948 First, second and third-round picks
Over $7,851,948-$9,814,935 Two firsts, second and third-round picks
Over $9,814,935 Four first-round picks

Personally when you look at his stats when not playing with McDavid I find that a pretty steep price to pay for a guy that is clearly a good player but maybe more complementary than franchise player.

[puckedoff]

Draisatl is going to be better than Koptiar, I don't see why teams wouldn't want to try and lock him up for $9.5.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Personally when you look at his stats when not playing with McDavid I find that a pretty steep price to pay for a guy that is clearly a good player but maybe more complementary than franchise player.

shh

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by united

I think the sweet spot for most teams with Draisaitl would be $7.85 million x 5. Enticing to the player, Oilers overpay by at minimum $1 million/season, and you save a 1st-round pick in the unlikely scenario the Oilers decline to match...

I think it will be unlikely that Draisaitl signs for under $7.5 m. Tarasenko's second contract has a cap hit of $7.5 m. He scored 73 points the year he signed it, but at the time he was 23-years-old and he plays RW. At the time, his contract was worth 10.5% of the salary cap. Draisaitl scored 77-points this past season, is a centre, and is only 21-years-old until the start of the season. $7.5 m is worth 10% of the salary cap.

Draisaitl is getting +$7.5 from whichever team that signs him.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Personally when you look at his stats when not playing with McDavid I find that a pretty steep price to pay for a guy that is clearly a good player but maybe more complementary than franchise player.

Draisatl was an absolute beast in the playoffs away from McDavid.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by puckedoff

Draisatl is going to be better than Koptiar, I don't see why teams wouldn't want to try and lock him up for $9.5.

I don't think he will be better than Kopitar. Draisaitl has had his numbers propped up quite a lot the past two years playing first with Hall, and then with McDavid. He has not been nearly as good when carrying his own line.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Draisatl was an absolute beast in the playoffs away from McDavid.

In one game.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by united

I think the sweet spot for most teams with Draisaitl would be $7.85 million x 5. Enticing to the player, Oilers overpay by at minimum $1 million/season, and you save a 1st-round pick in the unlikely scenario the Oilers decline to match. Either that or go $9.8 million x 5 and hope to hell the Oilers stick to their word by matching.

Average annual value Compensation
$1,295,571 or below Nothing
Over $1,295,571-$1,962,986 Third-round pick
Over $1,962,986-$3,925,975 Second-round pick
Over $3,925,975-$5,888,960 First and third-round picks
Over $5,888,960-$7,851,948 First, second and third-round picks
Over $7,851,948-$9,814,935 Two firsts, second and third-round picks
Over $9,814,935 Four first-round picks

9.5M x 5 will put the Oilers in trouble.
7.5 should be the number Draisatl gets as is, and they shouod be expecting that.
I don't know if the Habs have room, but I want them to offer sheet him at 9.5