11-21-2014, 03:11 PM
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#1
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Franchise Player
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The Flames and the cap over the next three years
I had nothing to do this morning, so I had a look at our capgeek page. For reference, we entered the season with the 2nd lowest payroll in the league, and $15.3M in cap space.
At the end of this year, our free agent situation is really manageable.
2014-15 UFA/RFAs
UFA: Glencross, Ramo, Diaz, Setoguchi, Big Ern.
RFA: Backlund, Baertschi, Bouma, Byron Jooris, Reinhart, Ferland.
Potential UFA Cap relief: $7.5M
Glencross and Ramo are the biggest names of our UFAs, clearly. I can't imagine the management wants to have Glencross around for another four or five years at $4+, which is what he'll receive on the open market. Ramo can still grab the starting job back as far as I'm concerned, but if he's not the clear cut guy by the deadline he's probably traded. Hiller is a starting goalie in this league, and a good stop-gap.
Backlund is the only RFA who should receive a significant raise over his current deal. Currently has a cap hit of 1.5M, I can't see him back for less than 4.5M.
Baertschi, Bouma, and Jooris are all still very much in a 'show me' stage, and benefit more from contracts that aren't prohibitive to keeping them up on the big club. Bouma I could see getting around $1.5, everyone else hovers around the 1M mark.
In 2015-16, things get really interesting.
UFA: Jiri Hudler, David Jones, Mark Giordano, Kris Russell
RFA: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Joe Colborne, Markus Granlund.
Potential UFA cap relief: $14.62M
Ho Lee ****. Murray Edwards, get your good pen ready.
Obviously Gio stays. My guess is he gets a 4 year deal worth $8M/per, or thereabouts. Close to market value for an early 30s star player. By letting Hudler and Jones walk, Gio's raise ends up having a net zero effect on our cap. Russell I would like to keep as well, maybe something in the 4x4 range?
The RFAs are fascinating - I get the sense Monahan and Gaudreau will sport Toews/Kane style identical contracts for the rest of their careers, but I have no idea how their deals will look. Hopefully they both take 2-year bridge contracts, but the way things are going, they're going to get PAID. Granlund and Colborne probably get 2-year $2.5M/per deals if they continue to trend upward. Maybe a little more for Colborne.
2016-17 is the year of defensive salary relief.
UFA: Mason Raymond, Brandon Bollig, Dennis Wideman, Deryk Engelland, Ladislav Smid.
RFA: Nobody currently on the roster.
Potential UFA cap relief: $16.05M
Between Wideman, Engelland and Smid, we have a total of 11.65M coming off the books. Throw in Raymond, who seems like our annual 'winger being pushed out by younger talents' candidate, and that number comes up to $14.8M in cap space without factoring in any increases to the ceiling.
This team should arguably begin looking to load up after the 2015/16 season. Stay the course for now - I think most of us would agree, this season is found money. The focus should remain on seeing what our prospects are at this level. So far, they're really effin good.
After 2015/16, we should see the team step up and add an impact player. Either a veteran top 4 D a la Brent Seabrook, or a top line veteran forward. Preferably both. If we can't have both, bolster the D - the forwards may be able to take care of themselves.
Hope springs eternal. Don't really have a conclusion. But conversely, I didn't have much else to do, either.
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Mom and Dad love you, Rowan - February 15, 2024
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11-21-2014, 03:24 PM
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#2
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: CowTown
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4.5 for Backlund seems really really high.. im thinking maybe 3
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11-21-2014, 03:27 PM
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#3
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Papi34
4.5 for Backlund seems really really high.. im thinking maybe 3
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I'd be more comfortable at that number, for sure. But market factors being what they are, and considering his age and his position, I don't see him coming cheap, even as an RFA.
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Mom and Dad love you, Rowan - February 15, 2024
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11-21-2014, 03:32 PM
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#4
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Franchise Player
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Will be pinned to the Cap again in 3-4 years.
The post bridge contracts will be huge for some of these players.
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11-21-2014, 03:36 PM
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#5
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Badgers Nose
Will be pinned to the Cap again in 3-4 years.
The post bridge contracts will be huge for some of these players.
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Yes, but I'd much rather be up against the cap with Gaudreau and Monahan being 24 and 23 as opposed to Iggy and Kipper being 30 and 31.
The only core piece over 30 is Gio. I hope the post-bridge deals for our guys are insane - in all likelihood, it means they've earned their money.
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Mom and Dad love you, Rowan - February 15, 2024
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11-21-2014, 03:42 PM
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#6
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Franchise Player
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most of the league is pinned to the cap so yeah better with a young team than an old one
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GFG
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11-21-2014, 04:29 PM
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#7
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Fearmongerer
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Wondering when # became hashtag and not a number sign.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814
I'd be more comfortable at that number, for sure. But market factors being what they are, and considering his age and his position, I don't see him coming cheap, even as an RFA.
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What leverage does he have though?
No one is going to offer sheet him at any price the Flames cant match and because every team will have their own issues when the cap stays somewhat stagnant, he is injured more than he isn't, and he simply doesn't have the offensive stats to demand a whole lot....I doubt he even sees 3 million.
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11-21-2014, 05:06 PM
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#8
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Franchise Player
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2015-2016 looks really interesting.
We need to resign our #1 and #3 defensmen, our #1 goalie (I think Hiller is also UFA that year), and 4-5 top 6 forwards.
I think it will be the most key defining moment of this team(in terms of the roster). We will either praise this summer for a long time, or there will be a lot of what ifs connected with it.
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11-21-2014, 05:37 PM
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#9
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Papi34
4.5 for Backlund seems really really high.. im thinking maybe 3
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It will depend a lot on how Backlund plays when he is back from injury. Unlike Brodie he won't be signed until the off-season imo. If he comes back and plays like he did last season I would offer 5 years $4 million/yr easily. If he struggles I would offer 3 years at $3.25/yr.
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11-21-2014, 05:40 PM
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#10
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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I am more worried about what beer I am going to have tonight more than the Flames cap situation in 3 years.
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11-21-2014, 05:45 PM
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#11
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Papi34
4.5 for Backlund seems really really high.. im thinking maybe 3
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Really think the Flames trade him at the trade deadline or the draft
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11-21-2014, 05:45 PM
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#12
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan
I am more worried about what beer I am going to have tonight more than the Flames cap situation in 3 years.
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Village Blacksmith, now you have no worries.
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11-21-2014, 05:46 PM
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#13
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lil Pedro
Really think the Flames trade him at the trade deadline or the draft
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Agreed. Backlund is now expendable. Also, made of glass.
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11-21-2014, 05:46 PM
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#14
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814
Yes, but I'd much rather be up against the cap with Gaudreau and Monahan being 24 and 23 as opposed to Iggy and Kipper being 30 and 31.
The only core piece over 30 is Gio. I hope the post-bridge deals for our guys are insane - in all likelihood, it means they've earned their money.
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Agreed. It's a good problem to have for a contender, which this will be in 3-4 years.
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11-21-2014, 05:49 PM
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#15
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gvitaly
2015-2016 looks really interesting.
We need to resign our #1 and #3 defensmen, our #1 goalie (I think Hiller is also UFA that year), and 4-5 top 6 forwards.
I think it will be the most key defining moment of this team(in terms of the roster). We will either praise this summer for a long time, or there will be a lot of what ifs connected with it.
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I knew I was forgetting someone...
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Mom and Dad love you, Rowan - February 15, 2024
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11-22-2014, 09:07 AM
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#16
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Franchise Player
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1) Brodie just signed an RFA extension for 5 years at 4.6 .... Backlund has had 20 or so games playing at a top 6 forward level. He was on Burke's short list of trades less than one year ago. Over the last 3 years Brodie at his worst has been better than Backlund at his best.
With Monahan and Bennett and Granlund in the Flames system Backlund has a significant challenge remaining as one of the Flames top 2 centres,
2) Glencross is one of the Flames top 3 forwards and arguably their best forward Whatever line he is on is the #1 line. Monahan is playing even better in his 2nd year than his first.... Glencross has been a significant part of the process. Glencross has been a Flame first signing a hometown discount his last contract. The Flame culture is the strongest it has been since 2004. Glencross is an assistant Captain. He deserves to be in a Flames playoff series.
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11-22-2014, 09:52 AM
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#17
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
1) Brodie just signed an RFA extension for 5 years at 4.6 .... Backlund has had 20 or so games playing at a top 6 forward level. He was on Burke's short list of trades less than one year ago. Over the last 3 years Brodie at his worst has been better than Backlund at his best.
With Monahan and Bennett and Granlund in the Flames system Backlund has a significant challenge remaining as one of the Flames top 2 centres,
2) Glencross is one of the Flames top 3 forwards and arguably their best forward Whatever line he is on is the #1 line. Monahan is playing even better in his 2nd year than his first.... Glencross has been a significant part of the process. Glencross has been a Flame first signing a hometown discount his last contract. The Flame culture is the strongest it has been since 2004. Glencross is an assistant Captain. He deserves to be in a Flames playoff series.
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He does - so I really hope we make it this year.
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Mom and Dad love you, Rowan - February 15, 2024
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11-22-2014, 09:55 AM
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#18
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Crash and Bang Winger
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Appreciate the analysis
..of course it all goes up in smoke if Flames win the cup this year.
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11-22-2014, 11:45 AM
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#19
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gord Wappel
Appreciate the analysis
..of course it all goes up in smoke if Flames win the cup this year.
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