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Old 11-21-2014, 03:11 PM   #1
GreenLantern2814
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icon53 The Flames and the cap over the next three years

I had nothing to do this morning, so I had a look at our capgeek page. For reference, we entered the season with the 2nd lowest payroll in the league, and $15.3M in cap space.

At the end of this year, our free agent situation is really manageable.

2014-15 UFA/RFAs

UFA: Glencross, Ramo, Diaz, Setoguchi, Big Ern.
RFA: Backlund, Baertschi, Bouma, Byron Jooris, Reinhart, Ferland.

Potential UFA Cap relief: $7.5M

Glencross and Ramo are the biggest names of our UFAs, clearly. I can't imagine the management wants to have Glencross around for another four or five years at $4+, which is what he'll receive on the open market. Ramo can still grab the starting job back as far as I'm concerned, but if he's not the clear cut guy by the deadline he's probably traded. Hiller is a starting goalie in this league, and a good stop-gap.

Backlund is the only RFA who should receive a significant raise over his current deal. Currently has a cap hit of 1.5M, I can't see him back for less than 4.5M.

Baertschi, Bouma, and Jooris are all still very much in a 'show me' stage, and benefit more from contracts that aren't prohibitive to keeping them up on the big club. Bouma I could see getting around $1.5, everyone else hovers around the 1M mark.


In 2015-16, things get really interesting.

UFA: Jiri Hudler, David Jones, Mark Giordano, Kris Russell
RFA: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Joe Colborne, Markus Granlund.

Potential UFA cap relief: $14.62M


Ho Lee ****. Murray Edwards, get your good pen ready.

Obviously Gio stays. My guess is he gets a 4 year deal worth $8M/per, or thereabouts. Close to market value for an early 30s star player. By letting Hudler and Jones walk, Gio's raise ends up having a net zero effect on our cap. Russell I would like to keep as well, maybe something in the 4x4 range?

The RFAs are fascinating - I get the sense Monahan and Gaudreau will sport Toews/Kane style identical contracts for the rest of their careers, but I have no idea how their deals will look. Hopefully they both take 2-year bridge contracts, but the way things are going, they're going to get PAID. Granlund and Colborne probably get 2-year $2.5M/per deals if they continue to trend upward. Maybe a little more for Colborne.

2016-17 is the year of defensive salary relief.

UFA: Mason Raymond, Brandon Bollig, Dennis Wideman, Deryk Engelland, Ladislav Smid.

RFA: Nobody currently on the roster.

Potential UFA cap relief: $16.05M

Between Wideman, Engelland and Smid, we have a total of 11.65M coming off the books. Throw in Raymond, who seems like our annual 'winger being pushed out by younger talents' candidate, and that number comes up to $14.8M in cap space without factoring in any increases to the ceiling.

This team should arguably begin looking to load up after the 2015/16 season. Stay the course for now - I think most of us would agree, this season is found money. The focus should remain on seeing what our prospects are at this level. So far, they're really effin good.

After 2015/16, we should see the team step up and add an impact player. Either a veteran top 4 D a la Brent Seabrook, or a top line veteran forward. Preferably both. If we can't have both, bolster the D - the forwards may be able to take care of themselves.

Hope springs eternal. Don't really have a conclusion. But conversely, I didn't have much else to do, either.
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Old 11-21-2014, 03:24 PM   #2
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4.5 for Backlund seems really really high.. im thinking maybe 3
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Old 11-21-2014, 03:27 PM   #3
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4.5 for Backlund seems really really high.. im thinking maybe 3
I'd be more comfortable at that number, for sure. But market factors being what they are, and considering his age and his position, I don't see him coming cheap, even as an RFA.
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Old 11-21-2014, 03:32 PM   #4
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Will be pinned to the Cap again in 3-4 years.

The post bridge contracts will be huge for some of these players.
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Old 11-21-2014, 03:36 PM   #5
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Will be pinned to the Cap again in 3-4 years.

The post bridge contracts will be huge for some of these players.
Yes, but I'd much rather be up against the cap with Gaudreau and Monahan being 24 and 23 as opposed to Iggy and Kipper being 30 and 31.

The only core piece over 30 is Gio. I hope the post-bridge deals for our guys are insane - in all likelihood, it means they've earned their money.
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Old 11-21-2014, 03:42 PM   #6
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most of the league is pinned to the cap so yeah better with a young team than an old one
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Old 11-21-2014, 04:29 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814 View Post
I'd be more comfortable at that number, for sure. But market factors being what they are, and considering his age and his position, I don't see him coming cheap, even as an RFA.
What leverage does he have though?

No one is going to offer sheet him at any price the Flames cant match and because every team will have their own issues when the cap stays somewhat stagnant, he is injured more than he isn't, and he simply doesn't have the offensive stats to demand a whole lot....I doubt he even sees 3 million.
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Old 11-21-2014, 05:06 PM   #8
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2015-2016 looks really interesting.
We need to resign our #1 and #3 defensmen, our #1 goalie (I think Hiller is also UFA that year), and 4-5 top 6 forwards.

I think it will be the most key defining moment of this team(in terms of the roster). We will either praise this summer for a long time, or there will be a lot of what ifs connected with it.
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Old 11-21-2014, 05:37 PM   #9
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4.5 for Backlund seems really really high.. im thinking maybe 3
It will depend a lot on how Backlund plays when he is back from injury. Unlike Brodie he won't be signed until the off-season imo. If he comes back and plays like he did last season I would offer 5 years $4 million/yr easily. If he struggles I would offer 3 years at $3.25/yr.
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Old 11-21-2014, 05:40 PM   #10
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I am more worried about what beer I am going to have tonight more than the Flames cap situation in 3 years.
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Old 11-21-2014, 05:45 PM   #11
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4.5 for Backlund seems really really high.. im thinking maybe 3
Really think the Flames trade him at the trade deadline or the draft
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Old 11-21-2014, 05:45 PM   #12
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I am more worried about what beer I am going to have tonight more than the Flames cap situation in 3 years.
Village Blacksmith, now you have no worries.
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Old 11-21-2014, 05:46 PM   #13
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Really think the Flames trade him at the trade deadline or the draft
Agreed. Backlund is now expendable. Also, made of glass.
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Old 11-21-2014, 05:46 PM   #14
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Yes, but I'd much rather be up against the cap with Gaudreau and Monahan being 24 and 23 as opposed to Iggy and Kipper being 30 and 31.

The only core piece over 30 is Gio. I hope the post-bridge deals for our guys are insane - in all likelihood, it means they've earned their money.
Agreed. It's a good problem to have for a contender, which this will be in 3-4 years.
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Old 11-21-2014, 05:49 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by gvitaly View Post
2015-2016 looks really interesting.
We need to resign our #1 and #3 defensmen, our #1 goalie (I think Hiller is also UFA that year), and 4-5 top 6 forwards.

I think it will be the most key defining moment of this team(in terms of the roster). We will either praise this summer for a long time, or there will be a lot of what ifs connected with it.
I knew I was forgetting someone...
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Old 11-22-2014, 09:07 AM   #16
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1) Brodie just signed an RFA extension for 5 years at 4.6 .... Backlund has had 20 or so games playing at a top 6 forward level. He was on Burke's short list of trades less than one year ago. Over the last 3 years Brodie at his worst has been better than Backlund at his best.


With Monahan and Bennett and Granlund in the Flames system Backlund has a significant challenge remaining as one of the Flames top 2 centres,

2) Glencross is one of the Flames top 3 forwards and arguably their best forward Whatever line he is on is the #1 line. Monahan is playing even better in his 2nd year than his first.... Glencross has been a significant part of the process. Glencross has been a Flame first signing a hometown discount his last contract. The Flame culture is the strongest it has been since 2004. Glencross is an assistant Captain. He deserves to be in a Flames playoff series.
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Old 11-22-2014, 09:52 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
1) Brodie just signed an RFA extension for 5 years at 4.6 .... Backlund has had 20 or so games playing at a top 6 forward level. He was on Burke's short list of trades less than one year ago. Over the last 3 years Brodie at his worst has been better than Backlund at his best.


With Monahan and Bennett and Granlund in the Flames system Backlund has a significant challenge remaining as one of the Flames top 2 centres,

2) Glencross is one of the Flames top 3 forwards and arguably their best forward Whatever line he is on is the #1 line. Monahan is playing even better in his 2nd year than his first.... Glencross has been a significant part of the process. Glencross has been a Flame first signing a hometown discount his last contract. The Flame culture is the strongest it has been since 2004. Glencross is an assistant Captain. He deserves to be in a Flames playoff series.
He does - so I really hope we make it this year.
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Old 11-22-2014, 09:55 AM   #18
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Appreciate the analysis
..of course it all goes up in smoke if Flames win the cup this year.
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Old 11-22-2014, 11:45 AM   #19
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Appreciate the analysis
..of course it all goes up in smoke if Flames win the cup this year.
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