The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

One thing that may or may not make you feel better about that: it's estimated that as many as 40% of voters may already have cast their ballots by Election Day. As of this morning, 5.6 million Americans have already voted.

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Traditionally the GOP has had an advantage among early voters, but that changed in 2008 and 2012. This year is shaping up to be the same, I think--though it is hard to know what to make of these numbers, and (I think) dangerous to read too much into them. But I think if an "October surprise" happens around Halloween, there is a good chance it will simply be too late to make any difference.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

One thing that may or may not make you feel better about that: it's estimated that as many as 40% of voters may already have cast their ballots by Election Day. As of this morning, 5.6 million Americans have already voted.

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Traditionally the GOP has had an advantage among early voters, but that changed in 2008 and 2012. This year is shaping up to be the same, I think--though it is hard to know what to make of these numbers, and (I think) dangerous to read too much into them. But I think if an "October surprise" happens around Halloween, there is a good chance it will simply be too late to make any difference.

Also of note, in the swing states, the early vote has stayed about the same for the Dems or slightly increased, while the total for the Republicans has fallen off the face of the earth. In North Carolina, the Dems had about 17000 at this time last time. They are at 17500 now. Not a big deal. The Republicans had over 34000 and are now at 16000+. It's the same story in the other states as well.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

ABC released a new poll today, which apparently will be a daily tracker between now and the election:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clint...ry?id=42993821

The news isn't good for Trump: a 12 point deficit and a huge enthusiasm gap.

[octothorp]

That one caused a relatively big shift in the 538 projection (1.5 points movement in Clinton win probability this morning, which is be far the largest swing I've seen any release of polls recently).

[ernie]

The enthusiasm gap is showing up in early voting. It will likely persist to Election Day and because of that you may end up seeing those swing states and states within poll margins start to turn blue. I think the GOP badly underestimated how much worse the demographics could get for them. Despite the obvious needs to reach out to hispanics and other minorities they all but ignored that and now because of Trump they are going to lose more. They will not win back all the women who will vote democratic for the first time for instance.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by ernie

The enthusiasm gap is showing up in early voting. It will likely persist to Election Day and because of that you may end up seeing those swing states and states within poll margins start to turn blue. I think the GOP badly underestimated how much worse the demographics could get for them. Despite the obvious needs to reach out to hispanics and other minorities they all but ignored that and now because of Trump they are going to lose more. They will not win back all the women who will vote democratic for the first time for instance.

You cannot tell anything from early voting

[ernie]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

You cannot tell anything from early voting

Yes and no. I'm not drawing huge conclusions from it but I read something a week or so ago thatdiscussed a trend through this election cycle. And that is dropping requests for mail in ballots for republicans compared to democrats which matches up with poor Trump debate performances. And I would think election to election comparison has some validity. Not necessarily who is winning but what base is more motivated to get their vote in. Campaigns certainly look to that to see how they are doing and direct resources accordingly.

while flawed to use personal observation those things line up with that. I know so many people that started out as never Hillary Go Trump to never either of the. No one the other way around. Trump is losing that battle and it shows in the numbers. People are losing desire to vote for him and to vote at all.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Imagine Trump wins Florida, NC, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but loses the election because he drops Texas.

FL: Clinton 46, Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 2 (CBS/YouGov)
TX: Trump 46, Clinton 43, Johnson 5, Stein 1 (CBS/YouGov)

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Hillary Clinton has opened up a 12-point advantage over Donald Trump following their final debate last week and has reached the critical 50-percent mark, according to a new poll released Sunday.

Clinton’s 50-percent-to-38-percent lead over Trump in the first ABC News tracking poll, which is based on interviews conducted Thursday through Saturday, represents a swing from an ABC News/Washington Post poll following the second Clinton-Trump debate, which showed Clinton ahead by just 4 points, 47 percent to 43 percent.
Story Continued Below

Support for the two third-party candidates on the ballot in most states, Libertarian Gary Johnson (5 percent) and Green Party nominee Jill Stein (2 percent), is unchanged from the previous poll.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/1...bc-news-230199

[photon]

More interesting stuff on 538's models and assumptions and how it would change if they changed their assumptions.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...hers-on-trump/

[Drak]

CNN only wants to grant Clinton a 5 point lead. Keeps the story more interesting.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Drak

CNN only wants to grant Clinton a 5 point lead. Keeps the story more interesting.

Yup, still two weeks to go. Gotta keep those ratings up.

[ernie]

Keep in mind CNN has a republican lean so the 538 corrected number is +7 Clinton.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by photon

More interesting stuff on 538's models and assumptions and how it would change if they changed their assumptions.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...hers-on-trump/

There Friday podcast discusses this as well along with McMullin

[troutman]

Trump's betting odds dropped over 3% in the last day to 13.7%, even with UT, AZ and IA.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

[bob-loblaw]

Originally Posted by ernie

Keep in mind CNN has a republican lean so the 538 corrected number is +7 Clinton.

I watched Nate Silver on Colbert's show last week. Holy that poor guy was uncomfortable. I felt uncomfortable just watching.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by bob-loblaw

I watched Nate Silver on Colbert's show last week. Holy that poor guy was uncomfortable. I felt uncomfortable just watching.

He's not the most camera ready guy in the world. He was on The Daily Show and the Colbert Report and seems much more comfortable in that environment. But he knows his stuff.

[photon]

Early voting results in Florida don't look good for Republicans. They're already behind, if past early voting patterns hold true Republicans have already lost.

https://countyballotfiles.elections....ts/PublicStats

In the past Republicans have gone into election day with an advantage in early voting and have still lost the state, they're already behind in the second day of early voting.

EDIT: http://www.politico.com/states/flori...y-votes-106693

[Fuzz]

Are those actual results? What kind of half-assed democracy doesn't seal the ballots until election day?

[GGG]

Those are the affliction of the person the ballot was mailed to.


538 says be careful with the numbers because most early voters would have voted on Election Day as they are generally high propensity voters. So while this is a sign of Clinton vs Trump ground game it may not be a sign of results.