That poll shows a 12 point bounce on the head to head and a 13 point bounce on the 4 party. That's based on the bounce being Hillary's gain plus Donald's losses so the increase in spread not just the increase in Hillary.
Link to the detailed and historical results for the poll
That's not quite right because coin flips are independent events. Whereas any error in the polling is more likely to be in the same direction then random.
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One of Trump's bigger problems isn't the states he has to win to become President, it's that it looks like he's going to have to play defense in states he shouldn't, and that ties up resources that he needs for the must win states. Missouri and Georgia appear most likely to be in play for the Dems if early polls are to be believed, and maybe Arizona even will be too. And with Trump likely to have less SuperPAC cash than Romney did, let alone what Hillary will have this year, and this is where his poor organization could really hurt him, and why he is basically forced into pursuing the FLA, OH, PA strategy. Sure it's the easiest, but it leaves zero room for error elsewhere. But he might not have the money to afford any other strategy.
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While I do agree that's a problem for Trump, I think if places like Georgia and Missouri are legitimately in play down the stretch, then the election can no longer be won for the Republicans on a state level, he's got to do something majorly disruptive (moreso than anything he's already done) to try and swing it at a national level. You can only play defense so much before you need to pull the goalie.
I have my doubts as to Georgia being "in play." I know there are some polls showing Trumo leading by just 4 or 5 points (one came out today from SurveyUSA), but I feel like it may be a bit of a mirage. Michigan is a state that always seems to be "in play" and once in a while a poll or two shows it being close--but the truth is that unless we are in a landslide scenario I don't see Michigan going red.
Conversely, if Clinton wins Georgia, we are in landslide territory the other way I think.
NBC/SurveyMonkey: Clinton 50, Trump 42 (42, 38, 9, 4 in a 4-way race)
Economist/YouGov: Clinton 46, Trump 43 (41, 36, 8, 4 in a 4-way race)
State polls:
Oklahoma (Sooner): Trump 53, Clinton 29 (nothing to see here)
Utah (Hinckley/Salt Lake Tribune): Clinton 36, Trump 35 (whaaaaaaa?)
Before we get all in a tizzy over this, it's a single poll and doesn't show that Utah is a battleground--but it may show Trump's difficulties with Mormon voters, which is an issue that could bleed over into a real swing state, Nevada.
NBC/SurveyMonkey: Clinton 50, Trump 42 (42, 38, 9, 4 in a 4-way race)
Economist/YouGov: Clinton 46, Trump 43 (41, 36, 8, 4 in a 4-way race)
State polls:
Oklahoma (Sooner): Trump 53, Clinton 29 (nothing to see here)
Utah (Hinckley/Salt Lake Tribune): Clinton 36, Trump 35 (whaaaaaaa?)
Before we get all in a tizzy over this, it's a single poll and doesn't show that Utah is a battleground--but it may show Trump's difficulties with Mormon voters, which is an issue that could bleed over into a real swing state, Nevada.
Mormons have shown themselves to be remarkably Trump-resistant. Strong relational communities and families, religious service attendance, and fairly high youth employment are part of the cure to Trumpism.
Mormons have shown themselves to be remarkably Trump-resistant. Strong relational communities and families, religious service attendance, and fairly high youth employment are part of the cure to Trumpism.
This is something that has shown pretty consistently with polling and Trump, that he does well with those who identify as religious, but who do not attend church regularly. Which is why he's doing so poorly with Mormons who for the most part do attend regular services. I still don't think it'll ultimately hurt him, but it's another potential problem out there that will make his life more difficult.
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New Fox News poll that is pretty much post-Khan has Trump down 10% in a straight up against Hillary, and down 9% all the way back at 35% in the three way (nice bump for Gary Johnson to 12%). Every single group disapproves of his Khan handling, and only "Republicans" are even close to a split at 41/40 disapprove. This single event may not cost him the election, but it shows that his inability to check himself over the next 3 months leaves him little hope. Also the questions about temperament, qualification and knowledge to be President give overwhelming advantages to Hillary
Univision Florida poll shows just how difficult Trump's path to winning is: He's only getting 13% of the Latino vote. Even if that doubles nationwide, he's well behind Romney who obviously lost handily. It is an online poll, but even if you wanna apply a 150% margin of error that still puts Trump well behind Romney's pace with Latinos.
Also strongly working against Trump is Obama's net approval might hit double digit positive if the trends continue. Almost all pollsters have him with a high single digit net approval. With Obama likely to be a crucial campaign weapon, he's even more devastating to Trump with strong numbers.
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New Fox News poll that is pretty much post-Khan has Trump down 10% in a straight up against Hillary, and down 9% all the way back at 35% in the three way (nice bump for Gary Johnson to 12%). Every single group disapproves of his Khan handling, and only "Republicans" are even close to a split at 41/40 disapprove. This single event may not cost him the election, but it shows that his inability to check himself over the next 3 months leaves him little hope. Also the questions about temperament, qualification and knowledge to be President give overwhelming advantages to Hillary
Univision Florida poll shows just how difficult Trump's path to winning is: He's only getting 13% of the Latino vote. Even if that doubles nationwide, he's well behind Romney who obviously lost handily. It is an online poll, but even if you wanna apply a 150% margin of error that still puts Trump well behind Romney's pace with Latinos.
Also strongly working against Trump is Obama's net approval might hit double digit positive if the trends continue. Almost all pollsters have him with a high single digit net approval. With Obama likely to be a crucial campaign weapon, he's even more devastating to Trump with strong numbers.
There comes a certain tipping point when the undecided just want to get on board with the clear winner while the losers supporters start to get to the 'ah screw it, what's the point?' place, it all goes downhill real fast after that.
I think that may be where we're at.
We are also hitting a few peaks here, max convention bounce, the decline of trumps convention bounce, and the start of khan outrage showing up in the polls. If results weren't showing Hillary up substantially you'd be really concerned.
It will be interesting to watch the sticky news of these numbers. Even big convention bounces fade a bit and if Trump just stays quiet for a week the Khan stuff will blow over and the polls would tighten. Post olympics we'll see how much of this has stuck.
New state polls and they are predictably awful for Trump. Down 15 points in New Hampshire, down 11 in Pennsylvania, down 9 in Michigan. That Pennsylvania number is obviously the big concern for Trump, a lot of people thought that was easily his best chance to flip a blue state red from the Romney map. Still a long time to go but you do wonder if he hasn't already inflicted too much damage.
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Yeah those numbers are ugly. New Hampshire is a state that I had sort of mentally pencilled in for Trump.
There was, just to provide a counterpoint, a Civitas/SurveyUSA poll yesterday that showed Trump ahead 46-42 in North Carolina.
Rasmussen has new numbers this morning, and shows Clinton ahead by 4 nationally. Given Rasmussen's history of showing (for whatever reason) very good numbers for Republicans over the years, it is tempting to see that as a very good number for Clinton.
I think the next few weeks will tell an important story. Do these numbers tighten, or does Clinton's lead stick around? I think the Olympics actually provide a good time-out for the Trump campaign, and a chance to reboot.
I was playing with the CNN electoral map tool this morning, and the significance of those state polls really started to sink in.
If Clinton wins New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia--that is game over. She is at 273, and doesn't even need Florida. That is assuming Colorado and Michigan are in her column too, which they seem to be.
Trump needs to start seeing some encouraging numbers soon, or his narrow electoral college path will become no path at all.
