What will Sam Bennett get?

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by the2bears

Is "middling" a type of "halfling"? LotR reference?

No, he is referencing where we are now - middle earth. Granteed was trying to say that Monahan is one of the best centers on earth.

[VilleN]

Whenever I see these types of scoring lists for centers it really makes me think that Pavelski is the most underrated player in the league.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Whenever I see these types of scoring lists for centers it really makes me think that Pavelski is the most underrated player in the league.

I think Pavelski and Monahan are both vastly under-appreciated by fans league wide, and I think it is the same underlying reason. I think fans see both as really good players, but are being propped up by a line mate - Thornton for Pavelski, and Gaudreau for Monahan.

I don't agree with that assessment personally - neither is like a Lemieux-Brown situation.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by transplant99

It's not early though.

Maybe not "early," but it is certainly not "late." As you say, there is plenty of time to get a deal done, and virtually nothing to worry about today.

Yes there is plenty of time to get a deal done, but at this point it's looking very much like it will come down to a pressure point before anything happens.

Well, it could be that. Or it could be that both sides have put negotiations off until later for whatever reason.

Someone needs to blink first and knowing the way Treliving operates, it isn't likely to be the Flames.

Just because a deal has not yet been signed does not mean that both sides are entrenched.

Look at it this way;

They have had 104 days to get a deal done since the season ended.

They have 43 days (IIRC) before training camp starts.

Here is the way I look at it. The 150-or-so days that the team and the agent have within which to agree to a deal is open—that is to say that there is no mounting pressure until the last couple of days before camp.

I don't believe there is any reason to think this is a contentious negotiation. I would expect that a deal will be in place before the start of September, at which point I think it is fair to start wondering about the delay. But until then, there is absolutely no reason to be concerned, especially since we have heard nothing from either camp.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I think Pavelski and Monahan are both vastly under-appreciated by fans league wide, and I think it is the same underlying reason. I think fans see both as really good players, but are being propped up by a line mate - Thornton for Pavelski, and Gaudreau for Monahan.

I don't agree with that assessment personally - neither is like a Lemieux-Brown situation.

I think that is definitely part of it. I also think there are a couple of other reasons:
- Neither Pavelski nor Monahan play a particularly flashy game. They seem to quietly put up numbers. While someone like Gaudreau looks like a wizard out there, and that gets fans talking.
- Both Pavelski and Monahan are equally good scorers as they are play makers (meaning they get basically as many goals as they do assists), whereas a player like Thornton puts up monstrous numbers of assists. Which makes people think of him as a super elite play maker, which increases the hype and popularity of the player.

[Gaudfather]

Originally Posted by VilleN

I think that is definitely part of it. I also think there are a couple of other reasons:
- Neither Pavelski nor Monahan play a particularly flashy game. They seem to quietly put up numbers. While someone like Gaudreau looks like a wizard out there, and that gets fans talking.
- Both Pavelski and Monahan are equally good scorers as they are play makers (meaning they get basically as many goals as they do assists), whereas a player like Thornton puts up monstrous numbers of assists. Which makes people think of him as a super elite play maker, which increases the hype and popularity of the player.

This is a side bar, but it is interesting to compare Pavelski and Mony. After his first four years in the NHL Pavelski had 83g and 95a while Mony after four years has 107g and 110a.

So Pavelski was averaging about 45 pts per year his first four years vs Mony who has averaged 55 pts per year.

The most recent four year period Pavelski is averaging almost 75 pts per year, so as Mony continues to develop, if he improves on a similar curve to Joe, he could be an 80-90 points per season player in the next few years. Will be interesting to track.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

This is a side bar, but it is interesting to compare Pavelski and Mony. After his first four years in the NHL Pavelski had 83g and 95a while Mony after four years has 107g and 110a.

So Pavelski was averaging about 45 pts per year his first four years vs Mony who has averaged 55 pts per year.

The most recent four year period Pavelski is averaging almost 75 pts per year, so as Mony continues to develop, if he improves on a similar curve to Joe, he could be an 80-90 points per season player in the next few years. Will be interesting to track.

Not sure if they are a great comparison. Pavelski was a late bloomer and 6th round pick where Monahan was a pretty polished 6th overall pick.

After a great sophomore season Monahan has been consistent in the 27 goal 60pt range. Hoping for a step forward this year.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

This is a side bar, but it is interesting to compare Pavelski and Mony. After his first four years in the NHL Pavelski had 83g and 95a while Mony after four years has 107g and 110a.

So Pavelski was averaging about 45 pts per year his first four years vs Mony who has averaged 55 pts per year.

The most recent four year period Pavelski is averaging almost 75 pts per year, so as Mony continues to develop, if he improves on a similar curve to Joe, he could be an 80-90 points per season player in the next few years. Will be interesting to track.

Pavelski was playing second fiddle to Marleau/Thornton for a number of years. As he transitioned to the nuumber one guy, his numbers improved.

Monohan has been/is the number one guy so I don't see a massive uptick in his production coming.

[Moneyhands23]

Im smelling a 5/6 year contract!

[Moneyhands23]

Who thinks this deal gets done next week??

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Who thinks this deal gets done next week??

I guess its possible, but IMO doubtful. It would be nice however.

There is no pressure point for either side next week.

I honestly don't see anything getting done until camp is upon us, if not later.

Something is holding up this deal, and until that something (someone) blinks, its status quo.

[Bingo]

When you look around the league these are the toughest contracts to get done ... out of entry level and a bridge vs long term deal as the key variable that creates so many different permutations or lanes to negotiate.

Wenberg, Draisaitl, Bennett, Pasternak ... all have question marks that make the deals tough to do.

I really think the issue with these guys is the fact that the sides are negotiating up to four different types of deals at once, with moves on all four happening all the time.

[Gaudfather]

I just hope it gets done before camp starts. Bennett cannot afford the same type of slow start that Gaudreau experienced last year.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Bingo

When you look around the league these are the toughest contracts to get done ... out of entry level and a bridge vs long term deal as the key variable that creates so many different permutations or lanes to negotiate.

Wenberg, Draisaitl, Bennett, Pasternak ... all have question marks that make the deals tough to do.

I really think the issue with these guys is the fact that the sides are negotiating up to four different types of deals at once, with moves on all four happening all the time.

Which side do you think is pushing for a long term deal. Gotta figure the team is looking for term at a reduced rate.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Which side do you think is pushing for a long term deal. Gotta figure the team is looking for term at a reduced rate.

My gut says the Flames would love to put a 4x3.5M deal in place to ensure space for Backlund and effectively remove almost all of their cap concerns for the next two seasons.

Bennett probably wants a 1 year deal to prove himself.

I'm guessing the Flames don't want a two year deal to align with Tkachuk.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by Bingo

My gut says the Flames would love to put a 4x3.5M deal in place to ensure space for Backlund and effectively remove almost all of their cap concerns for the next two seasons.

Bennett probably wants a 1 year deal to prove himself.

I'm guessing the Flames don't want a two year deal to align with Tkachuk.

3.5 for Bennett would be a huge over payment. He hasn't shown any statistical reason or otherwise to be worth that kind of money. He's playing at about a 1.75 Mill a season rate last season. I believe he can improve but on a 4 year deal I see 3.5 being the high salary and 1.75 being the first years. Even at 4 years his cap should not exceed 2.5M.

When do his arbitration rights kick in?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

3.5 for Bennett would be a huge over payment. He hasn't shown any statistical reason or otherwise to be worth that kind of money. He's playing at about a 1.75 Mill a season rate last season. I believe he can improve but on a 4 year deal I see 3.5 being the high salary and 1.75 being the first years. Even at 4 years his cap should not exceed 2.5M.

When do his arbitration rights kick in?

I see it as a matrix and all of the paths being chipped away at

1x1.75
2x2.25
3x3
4x3.5
5x4

I'd have those on the table ...

If he gets paid 3.5 or 4.0 per season on a longer term deal is the Kleffbom angle ...you assume he develops into a solid 2nd line player at some time and take your chances.

If you're right you have cost certainty on another key piece. If you're wrong, you're not all that wrong.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

I just hope it gets done before camp starts. Bennett cannot afford the same type of slow start that Gaudreau experienced last year.

In fairness, a lot more than just a new contract was going on with Gaudreau:

1. Missed all of camp
2. Monahan missed all of camp
3. Monahan started the season with a bad back
4. They started the season with a new RW that they hadn't played one minute with prior
5. New head coach with a very different system
6. Terrible start for the team
7. Huge pressure for him and Monahan, with giant new contracts

When you break it down, it's actually difficult to come up with a scenario that would be much worse.

The Bennett situation has none of those variables.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

3.5 for Bennett would be a huge over payment. He hasn't shown any statistical reason or otherwise to be worth that kind of money. He's playing at about a 1.75 Mill a season rate last season. I believe he can improve but on a 4 year deal I see 3.5 being the high salary and 1.75 being the first years. Even at 4 years his cap should not exceed 2.5M.

When do his arbitration rights kick in?

You're dreaming if you think $2.5M is enough on a 4 year deal. A 2 year deal is probably going to be in the $2.25 - $2.5M range.

So 4 x $3.5M means something like $4.5M for the 3rd and 4th years. And those would be peak pre-UFA years.

That would be a great deal for the Flames.

[Machiavelli]

I'd rather a bridge deal for Bennett. Have no problem with the Flames having to pony up if the next couple of seasons are particularly productive for him.