[Rumour] UPD: Friedman: Thinks a deal will get done between Gaudreau and the Flames in the next week

[nik-]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

There's more to this than one stat and you know it. Gaudreau is the type of player that elevates others, Tarasenko is more of a trigger man, and a great one at that. Two different types of players, but both in the same tier. Not sure why you're trying to reduce this to such simplistic terms. I'd guess it's nothing more than you trying to score some 'thanks' as per usual.

Pure goals has always been valued more with contracts. If you don't think that's the way it should be, that's fine, but that's the way it is.

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Sure, but are 7 goals worth more than 12 assists? I think its close, I'd lead towards the 12 assists being more valuable.

Of course you would, but GM's historically haven't.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

He signed his deal before he scored 40 goals, after his 37 goal 73 point season. Are you telling me that a 30 goals 78 point season is objectively worse than that?

I swear we went over this about a month ago.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I want to open this with "I was probably the first person on CP to suggest Tarasenko money for Gaudreau, way back in October". So do not get me wrong. I value Gaudreau.

But there are a few issues you are brushing under the rug.

Players with a greater AAV than Tarasenko currently (all commentary is from the time of their signing):

Patrick Kane - 2 time cup champ, Conn Smythe
Jonathan Toews - 2 time cup champ, Conn Smythe, Selke, Center
Anze Kopitar - 2 time cup champ, Conn Smythe, Center
Alex Ovechkin - Rocket Richard, Art Ross, Hart etc
Evgeni Malkin - See Ovy + Add Center + Add Stanley Cup
P.K. Subban - Norris Trophy
Sidney Crosby - ... Sidney Crosby
Corey Perry - Hart Trophy, Rocket Richard
Steven Stamkos - Rocket Richard
Henrik Lundqvist - Henrik Lundqvist
Claude Giroux - Center, 3rd place Hart Finish
Ryan Getzlaf - Center, 2nd place Hart Finish
Jakub Voracek
Phil Kessel
Shea Weber - Defenseman
Rick Nash
Dustin Byfuglien - Defenseman
Ryan Suter - Defenseman
Zach Parise
Ryan O'Reilly - Center
Pavel Datsyuk - Selke, Stanley Cup etc center

Now I have bolded the players who are remotely comparable to Gaudreau. What is the common theme? They are overpaid. No Ifs and Or Buts. Those teams are hamstrung by those contracts. Kessel is the sole exception - because Toronto retained 1.2M of his 8.0M cap hit (so for Pitt, he is a 6.8M winger which is fair competitive value). Yes even Patrick Kane is overpaid despite winning all of this year's trophies. The Blackhawks window probably closed the minute they had to trade away Patrick Sharp due to the new extensions Kane/Toews signed - both players are overpaid BTW not just Kane. There is exactly one winger in the league who is worth this kind of money and it's not even Ovechkin - it is Jamie Benn because he impacts the game like a centre.

If you are paying a player this kind of money they better be the best goalie in the world, one of the best two-way centres in the world, or one of the best defensemen in the world. Period. Else you are setting your team up to be uncompetitive. It's nothing wrong with Gaudreau but at his position he is unable to impact the game the amount he needs to be worth that pay.

Despite that, I understand that the market dictates value, not competitiveness. The Tarasenko deal is fair market value even if it is in all likelyhood going to be a handcuff. But that does not mean Gaudreau is a better player than Vladimir Tarasenko was when he signed his deal.

Prorating both players' final ELC seasons to an 82 game season here's why Tarasenko holds more value:

2014-15 Tarasenko vs 2015-16 Gaudreau
78 non 3v3 points vs 73 non 3v3 points
39 non 3v3 goals vs 28 non 3v3 goals
2.86 5vs5 Points per 60 vs 2.28 5vs5 Points per 60
0 3vs3 Points vs 8 3vs3 points(3G / 5A)

Now let's explore that last one. 3vs3...does that make a team more competitive in the playoffs? Answer honestly.

Probably not.

So what then is Gaudreau's value-added over Tarasenko? Increased likelyhood at winning a President's Trophy? Is a President's Trophy more valuable than a Stanley Cup?

You ask me, given the fact that Tarasenko scored 39% more goals (let's dock 5% from Gaudreau's AAV for that) and overall 7℅ more non 3-on-3 points (and let's dock another 7% from Gaudreau for that) but was one year older (let's add 5% to Gaudreau for that) with a 3.5% lower cap ceiling at the time, Gaudreau's real cap hit should be ~7.25M (Or 58M over 8Y)

However for pride sake, you can give him a 7.575x8Y cap hit to show him we value him more than Tarasenko.

But to say he's worth a 7.8M cap hit for example, that means he's probably overpaid by $550k - that almost is an entire entry level or veteran minimum salary he would be overpaid by. Suddenly you've lost a roster player in terms of value subtracted.

Yes. Yes we did.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

I take it you think a 8yr 6.38M - 6.75M AAV offer is equitable and fair? That's an insult. Its no wonder the two sides aren't talking.

Flames have the full right to offer that, just like JG side has full right to demand $8MM. That is how you negotiate.

If the term and salary doesn't work you ask for a bridge deal. Then you prove it by playing at the same level for 4 years. Then the world is yours.

Again if the Flames are basically sticking to "8yr 6.38M - 6.75M AAV offer" no negotiation at all then they risk losing the very player they covet while he sits this year, and when his bridge is over. I highly doubt the Flames want that, but hey anything I guess is possible.

I think what many others have pointed out is probably closer to the truth. That JG is an elite young talent who is very much loved and appreciated by this city. That he is being give advice from an agent who wants to maximize a pay check for his client. That the Flames would gladly pay him what he wants if the cap issues didn't exist.

It is a game of chicken, JG is trusting his agent. I see no fault in that. However as the deadline nears I think both sides need to relent a bit. Especially the side that is over playing their hand, but hey I am not an agent. So if JG signs a 8 x 8 deal in a month I am sure that side will be laughing. Somehow I don't see that happening however.

Anyways, JG camp shouldn't take insult with anything. People respect the guy. They just are left scratching their heads why a deal one way or another hasn't happened.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

I'm sorry you feel that way. I was just responding to multiple requests for me to cite instances of people making negative comments about Johnny.

Sure, just ignore the fact that every one of the comments you quoted were made AFTER your initial "poor Johnny" comments.

[Table 5]

I have a feeling this holdout will go into the regular season, and the biggest enemy of the Gaudreau camp will not be Brad Treliving, but the duo of Brian Elliot and Chad Johnson.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

He signed his deal before he scored 40 goals, after his 37 goal 73 point season. Are you telling me that a 30 goals 78 point season is objectively worse than that?

Yes. Goals > Assists

Ovechkin had a much better season than Johnny scoring 50 goals with less points. Brad Marchand's 37 goals is much more impressive than Ryan Spooner's 36 assists.

[Hockeyguy15]

The funny thing about goals vs assists is that for each goal there can be double the amount of assists.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

The funny thing about goals vs assists is that for each goal there can be double the amount of assists.

There can be, but there can also be no assists. Isn't the average goal:assist ratio like 1.5 or something?

If you are attempting to use that relationship, 7 goals would equate to roughly 10.5 assists.

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by nik-

Pure goals has always been valued more with contracts. If you don't think that's the way it should be, that's fine, but that's the way it is.

You're mostly right, goals are worth more than assists but not by as much as you seem to be insinuating. My problem is you are dismissing other factors to prove a point. Is Tarasenko's 5-10 extra goals per year really worth $1m difference in salary when Gaudreau is likely to get 10-15 more assists? The extra year of RFA is the biggest difference between the two. The fact that Gaudreau is a proven 30 goal scorer probably means the Flames aren't using his goal totals to leverage a lower deal. 30 goals is awesome in this day and age.

[Lord Carnage]

Originally Posted by Lanny'sDaMan

Seriously and I mean this, Turn off your computer, push away from the desk, and go outside for a while. Play in the leaves, smoke a big fat bowl, feed the ducks, I don't care. But do anything healthier than continuing to obsess about Johnny and what CP thinks is a fair offer.

LOL... I roll my eyes at Gaudreauvertime as much as the next guy (I seriously don't understand where he comes from at all without him being the player agent), but I think this advice is something we should ALL follow.

Just log off and NOT come back into these Gaudreau threads until there is REAL news, and not just, "Nothing new yet". It would do all of us a world of good!

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Yes. Goals > Assists

Ovechkin had a much better season than Johnny scoring 50 goals with less points. Brad Marchand's 37 goals is much more impressive than Ryan Spooner's 36 assists.

It really depends on the circumstance. For example, I would argue that for half the goals Rob Brown scored on the Pens, the Lemieux or Coffey assist was the biggest factor. A bit of a dated example, but I think Gaudreau is that type of player. He will turn 20 goal scorers into 30 goal scorers.

(Not a knock on Mony. I think he produces on his own just fine).

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Please, show me all these players that have similar stats and career trajectory that signed ~6.5M deals at term. The only guy who has come close? Tarasenko, but even his numbers were pretty significantly worse, and he signed a 7.5M deal last year.



Do you think offering ~6.5M for 8 years is at all equitable? Because that is what the reports indicate is being offered, and CroFlames is certain their offer is fair and equitable.

Like I have said in the past, 7.25M for 6 or 7 years seems equitable.

Just curious as to which reports. I have only heard that both teams want a long term deal not that it is 8 years, that has been pure speculation by hockey boards or media. The Flames want it to be sub 7M on the AAV (so the reports say) that doesn't mean that that sub 7M is on a 8 year deal.

Everything is speculation because no one knows all the details. It very well could be the Flames want 6.5AAV for 6 years and Gross is asking 8AAV for 8 years. Both are long term deals, which is the only thing that has been confirmed by each side publicly.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Just curious as to which reports. I have only heard that both teams want a long term deal not that it is 8 years, that has been pure speculation by hockey boards or media. The Flames want it to be sub 7M on the AAV (so the reports say) that doesn't mean that that sub 7M is on a 8 year deal.

Everything is speculation because no one knows all the details. It very well could be the Flames want 6.5AAV for 6 years and Gross is asking 8AAV for 8 years. Both are long term deals, which is the only thing that has been confirmed by each side publicly.

Good points, I assumed (possibly incorrectly) that the AAV ranges that were reported were for the same contract term. While I think that is likely, I haven't seen anyone explicitly report that.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Flames have the full right to offer that, just like JG side has full right to demand $8MM. That is how you negotiate.

If the term and salary doesn't work you ask for a bridge deal. Then you prove it by playing at the same level for 4 years. Then the world is yours.

Again if the Flames are basically sticking to "8yr 6.38M - 6.75M AAV offer" no negotiation at all then they risk losing the very player they covet while he sits this year, and when his bridge is over. I highly doubt the Flames want that, but hey anything I guess is possible.

I think what many others have pointed out is probably closer to the truth. That JG is an elite young talent who is very much loved and appreciated by this city. That he is being give advice from an agent who wants to maximize a pay check for his client. That the Flames would gladly pay him what he wants if the cap issues didn't exist.

It is a game of chicken, JG is trusting his agent. I see no fault in that. However as the deadline nears I think both sides need to relent a bit. Especially the side that is over playing their hand, but hey I am not an agent. So if JG signs a 8 x 8 deal in a month I am sure that side will be laughing. Somehow I don't see that happening however.

Anyways, JG camp shouldn't take insult with anything. People respect the guy. They just are left scratching their heads why a deal one way or another hasn't happened.

Solid post. Of course, the Flames can offer whatever they'd like, the question is whether or not they are offering "fair and equitable" value. At this point, I agree there is room for movement on both sides.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Table 5

I have a feeling this holdout will go into the regular season, and the biggest enemy of the Gaudreau camp will not be Brad Treliving, but the duo of Brian Elliot and Chad Johnson.

Conversely if the Flames get off to a good start and are winning games without Johnny then his position somewhat weakens as the Flames can sit on their hands and wait for the player to blink. Personally I don't think Gaudreau will be very happy watching the NHL from the outside and at the end of the day the agent answers to him.

[Lord Carnage]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Do you think offering ~6.5M for 8 years is at all equitable? Because that is what the reports indicate is being offered, and CroFlames is certain their offer is fair and equitable.

Like I have said in the past, 7.25M for 6 or 7 years seems equitable.

Actually, yes, I do believe it is fair and equitable. In my personal opinion, I believe 7M (or just BARELY over), is where they should end up, so 500k low is still fair.

On the other hand, I believe asking 1M or 1.5M above is less than fair and equitable...

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

I want the lowest cap hit possible, but I want that to be balanced with the player being happy as well. Obviously there is a point where those two interests can't be aligned. If Gaudreau is dead set on 8.5m then there isn't much that can be done. However, there is nothing to suggest that is the case besides musings from less than reputable sources. Aside from who is actually in the room, no one actually knows what's going on so I find taking sides to be pointless at this juncture.

Are you on management's side for cap reasons or do you just think players make too much money and that's why you're on their side? Honestly curious. Personally, I don't care about how millionaires and billionaires divvy up billions. They are both super rich so I find it hard to side with either. I only care to the point where the Flames remain competitive.

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Cap reasons.

Anyone who cares about how much someone else makes in a non capped world is a tool. It's not my money so whatever.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Conversely if the Flames get off to a good start and are winning games without Johnny then his position somewhat weakens as the Flames can sit on their hands and wait for the player to blink. Personally I don't think Gaudreau will be very happy watching the NHL from the outside and at the end of the day the agent answers to him.

Yeah, that's what he was saying.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Yeah, that's what he was saying.

Yeah I misread that. I think there's enough talent on the roster for this team to be competitive without Johnny providing they get better than average goaltending. Time will tell.

[MarkGio]

I would be alright if we started the season without Gaudreau. A few messily games isn't as important as the years to come. I don't even know of the Flames are true competitors as it stands with Gaudreau, so it's not like there's any loss. If anything, we'll see how Monahan and some wingers pan out without Gaudreau