Edmonton is No Good Episode 4: New Rink, Same Stink
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Originally Posted by N-E-B
My guess for McDavid has always been about $11milAAV. I don't see him making it to RFA, I think he'll tell the Oilers what he wants and they'll just give it to him.
I can't see him signing for less than $12.0 m. Weber's deal was the result of a crippling offer sheet. The threat of multiple +$13 m offer sheets paints the Oilers into a corner.
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Originally Posted by woob
"...harem warfare? like all your wives dressup and go paintballing?"
What I want to see is any of the top dozen or so teams offer sheet him max dollars and 4 year term. If the oilers match, that's the worst possible contract for them, as he is a UFA as early as possible. If they don't, the oilers get some late 1sts and begin the rebuild again. The good thing from my point of view is all it takes is one of the top dozen teams to have the cap space and believe adding McDavid can win them a couple cups in the 4 years to make this happen.
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The best part of this whole thing is looking at their current cap structure. When it comes time to re-signing him, there is no way they can add 10mil onto their roster without significant changes to their major players. There are already so many roster players on 0.6 - 1.8 mil contracts. And the contracts that expire by the time his ELC is up are not all that terrible of contracts; they will need to be replaced, and cannot be replaced with equal talent and major savings.
I won't even talk about replacing players coming off the books on contracts under 1 mil, because they will be replaced by essentially the same price tag. That leaves:
Matt Hendricks 1.85
Mark Letestu 1.8
Patrick Maroon 1.5
Zach Kassian 1.5
Mark Fayne 3.625
Kris Russell 3.1
Brandon Davidson 1.425
That's a total of 14.8 mil coming off the books. If they went to the hockey thrift-shop and only replaced these players with 1 mil players, that's 7.8 mil in gained cap space.
Again, these are not exceptional players, but a good secondary is key (especially when your cap structure is heavily front-loaded!) and I can't imagine this team being able to lose these players for barely-NHLers. In particular, losing those 3 defencemen would be a huge step backwards for that team.
So at this point, by replacing those expiring contracts with farm kids, they have gained 7.8 million in cap space. They already have about 3.38 million in cap space. If you add on the yearly cap limit growth, that will add up to the total amount needed to re-sign him.
Things not yet considered: re-signing players who might be in line for a raise. Those would include players like: Draisaitl, Nurse, Benning, Simpson, Musil, Slepyshev, Caggiula, Pitlick, Parakinen, Gryba, Gustavsson. A few of those (Drai, Nurse) will certainly chip away at their cap space, and might force them into unwanted bridge contracts.
In summary, they either need to lose valuable top-end players, or lose too many secondary-role players. The end result is the replacement of several current established NHLers for kids on entry-deal contracts, the question is how big of a step down those replacements will be.
This means that that the Edmonton Oilers of 2018-19 are going to have a real tough time being better than the current group. Their window is the current season and next season. The only way they extend that window is by developing players to contribute to their team on cheap contracts.
And it all comes down to that. The Oilers needing to develop players.
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What I want to see is any of the top dozen or so teams offer sheet him max dollars and 4 year term. If the oilers match, that's the worst possible contract for them, as he is a UFA as early as possible. If they don't, the oilers get some late 1sts and begin the rebuild again. The good thing from my point of view is all it takes is one of the top dozen teams to have the cap space and believe adding McDavid can win them a couple cups in the 4 years to make this happen.
The best part is that many other teams are in much better positions to absorb a major contract than the Oilers. That kind of leverage will certainly be reflected in offer-sheets
I forgot about the Weber deal. If I'm McDavid's agent I sell it from the standpoint that he's only one of two true generational players in the game so I want the max dollar if you want a long term deal. But I'll accept 12 for 5 years, or I'll hold my player out, which Edmonton can't afford to happen.
At the same time if I'm the GM of any other team I'm willing to pay the 4 first round draft picks and punishing team addicted to top draft picks so I'm offering 4 years 14.5 mill knowing that there's no way that edmonton can afford to let McDavid go and hope to keep their new building full.
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...so I'm offering 4 years 14.5 mill knowing that there's no way that edmonton can afford to let McDavid go and hope to keep their new building full...
Really? That is a ridiculous offer. 4 years still leaves McDavid as a RFA, and the Oilers in control. Why would anyone make that offer? One more year and McDavid is an UFA. Makes no sense what so ever.
Really? That is a ridiculous offer. 4 years still leaves McDavid as a RFA, and the Oilers in control. Why would anyone make that offer? One more year and McDavid is an UFA. Makes no sense what so ever.
No, he'd be a UFA after a four-year second contract (3 year ELC + 4 years = 7).
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So after the Oliers miss the playoffs this season they are officially the worst franchise in NHL history right?
Longest streak out of the playoffs.
NHL had to change the draft rules because they ruined so many #1 picks.
A generational player forced to be captain, and already showing behavior issues as a result.
A complete unawareness by owners, management, and fans of how embarassing they are?
Built a new complex for their billionare owner on the Taxpayer dime during an economic downturn
I mean, its one thing for a team to move or go out of business. But to linger for so long and try to capitalize on that ineptitude while maintaining the arogance as though anything has been accomplished in a recent generation...
...my god, it would be less shaming to the NHL if they just pretended the Oilers folded after Pronger was run out of town.
Better to strike them from history than allow future generations to see hockey conducted like this.
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"Isles give up 3 picks for 5.5 mil of cap space.
Oilers give up a pick and a player to take on 5.5 mil."
-Bax
So after the Oliers miss the playoffs this season they are officially the worst franchise in NHL history right?
Longest streak out of the playoffs.
NHL had to change the draft rules because they ruined so many #1 picks.
A generational player forced to be captain, and already showing behavior issues as a result.
A complete unawareness by owners, management, and fans of how embarassing they are?
Built a new complex for their billionare owner on the Taxpayer dime during an economic downturn
I mean, its one thing for a team to move or go out of business. But to linger for so long and try to capitalize on that ineptitude while maintaining the arogance as though anything has been accomplished in a recent generation...
...my god, it would be less shaming to the NHL if they just pretended the Oilers folded after Pronger was run out of town.
Better to strike them from history than allow future generations to see hockey conducted like this.
I believe they already are the worst franchise in NHL history. Sure teams have been worse for a season or two but over a 10 year period no team has been as bad as the Oilers.
I would also say they are currently the 2nd worst team in all of NA pro sports behind the Timberwolves. Yes I know a few teams such as the Bills and Mariners have longer playoff droughts but it is more difficult to make the playoffs in the NFL and MLB.
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Listen, no one is saying McDavid has to fight Manning, except for the fact that HE called him out in the interview saying HE wasn't 'man enough' to fight one of Edmonton's goons...
Don't want to fight? Then keep your yap shut above the ##### that gets said on the ice...Especially calling out someone YOU weren't willing to drop the mitts against... I mean how naive are you?
last i checked, i never heard a PEEP out of Gaudreau about the slash that broke his finger... and absolutely nothing where he was crying to the media about how so and so wouldn't fight any of the guys on our squad...
McDavid came off as a petulant child... pretty sad actually... wonder what those vets in the room thought about that display by their "captain"?
Last edited by oldschoolcalgary; 12-10-2016 at 10:55 PM.
The larger imperative with him signing a long term deal is also, what happens if the cap stays flat or drops. Once the existing TV deals are up will they be increased? This is what Treliving was aware of when he resigned Johnny & Gio. Hopefully the Oilers throw caution to the wind... again.
I don't think it is a coincidence that we pass the oilers and this hell freezing cold snap is starting to break. Thanks Oilers for the freezing weather, but we have had enough.
I think the past examples to follow for McDavid's next contract negotiations are Crosby and Ovechkin. Neither of those two made it to UFA (yet), nor did their teams leave them offer sheet eligible.
Edmonton is No Good Episode 4: New Rink, Same Stink
