CP Federal Election Poll #2

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Is there any empirical evidence that boutique tax credits aimed at parents actually increases the birth rate? According to StatsCan, it looks like Harper's baby handouts didn't really have any effect at all.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...lth85b-eng.htm

Also, Japan is an incredibly insular country that allows very little immigration, but Canada is an open and multicultural society. We can easily avoid the demographic problem Japan is facing though increased immigration. I can see why that solution doesn't appeal to Harper and other Old Stock Canadians, though.

I do think it is an economic decision for many Canadians to not reproduce at a natural replacement level, but tax breaks probably miss the mark. Many adults in Canada just don't reach financial stability until their mid 30s, if at all. I bet more Canadians let things like crippling student loans affect their decision to start a family than things like taxes.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I do think it is an economic decision for many Canadians to not reproduce at a natural replacement level, but tax breaks probably miss the mark. Many adults in Canada just don't reach financial stability until their mid 30s, if at all. I bet more Canadian let things like crippling student loans affect their decision to start a family than things like taxes.

Yep affordable child care and housing do far more to encourage reproduction than tax credits.

[Codes]

Originally Posted by Smartcar

If you intend to vote strategically, I'd recommend you wait until election day.

Point is well-taken, but I may be unavailable to vote on the 19th due to work-related travel.

I was more curious if anyone had more up-to-date, local information since these predictions are based off data from previous elections. I feel like the climate surrounding this one is different, and I want to do everything I can to ensure my vote is useful.

[Drak]

Originally Posted by Codes

Point is well-taken, but I may be unavailable to vote on the 19th due to work-related travel.

I was more curious if anyone had more up-to-date, local information since these predictions are based off data from previous elections. I feel like the climate surrounding this one is different, and I want to do everything I can to ensure my vote is useful.

Have you seen this one?

http://www.votetogether.ca/

[Codes]

Originally Posted by Drak

Have you seen this one?

http://www.votetogether.ca/

Negative. Thanks for the link! Same recommendation as other websites I consulted. Anyway, I voted. We'll see how it all plays out.

[EldrickOnIce]

K

Originally Posted by rubecube

Yep affordable child care and housing do far more to encourage reproduction than tax credits.

I don't know.
Apparently nothing does

To make having children more attractive, in recent years Berlin has increased monthly government subsidies paid to families with children, benefits for parents who stay home to care for newborns, work leave payments for new fathers and an expansion of national day care services. Despite these efforts, however, the German birthrate has remained at a constant average of 1.4 children per woman for around 40 years.
On Monday, the German Federal Institute for Population Research issued a report looking into the reasons behind the failure to increase the country's birthrate.The results are sobering. For many Germans, establishing a family has taken a backseat to a career, hobbies and friends. The report concludes that "children no longer represent a central aspect of life for all Germans."

http://m.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-873635.html

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

K
I don't know.
Apparently nothing does

Why are countries disappointed when their birthrate is low? Immigration can always replenish any population reductions, and there certainly is no shortage of people would would love to immigrate to first world countries.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

K
I don't know.
Apparently nothing does


http://m.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-873635.html

That's actually really interesting. I also kind of thought that less children would be more prevalent in neoliberal economies, but Germany doesn't fit that description either.