BC Election - May 9th, 2017

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I'm assuming that they'll last long enough to get to the budget.
.


I would expect that there will be an election within the next 3 months.

A NDP/Green coalition would be a disaster for Alberta interests

They reached a "4 year agreement". That sounds a little more firm than just a passing fancy that could be defeated in 3 months. I expect they get through at least the first couple of years.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Jacks

If the NDP elect one of their own as speaker he/she may have to vote to break a tie on everything.

This will make it very interesting. There's no way the Liberals will nominate one of their own as Speaker so this scenario pretty much has to happen. Every vote will be a tie and the Speaker will need to vote on every issue. All it would take is one day for an NDP or Green MLA to miss a session and a surprise non confidence vote puts an end to the government. I bet BC goes to the polls again in the very near future.

[Tinordi]

Very difficult to have a surprise no confidence motion especially if you don't own the speaker.

[automaton 3]

Not surprising. Will be interesting to see what committments the Greens received from the NDP in exchange for their support.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by belsarius

They reached a "4 year agreement". That sounds a little more firm than just a passing fancy that could be defeated in 3 months. I expect they get through at least the first couple of years.

... unless someone dies, or is to sick to make an important vote, or get's stuck in traffic, or misses a flight, or has to resign. etc.etc. Of course maybe the Lt. Governor simply sends them back to the polls (although I would argue that they shouldn't, huge waste of money when there is a party on hand that claims it can command the support of the house).

A 1 vote margin for error (which is really a zero vote margin of error since they'll need to elect a speaker) is incredibly thin. NDP-Greens better hope nobody get's the flu.

BC Voters will be heading back to the polls in under two years I wager. Either the NDP government will be popular and won't want to have to keep providing concessions to the Greens or they'll be unpopular and the Greens won't want to be seen propping them up.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Very difficult to have a surprise no confidence motion especially if you don't own the speaker.

Yeah, those don't happen willy nilly. But all you really need is an NDP/Green to be away (and unpaired) on a Supply motion or Opposition day (and those happen regularly enough).

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by belsarius

They reached a "4 year agreement". That sounds a little more firm than just a passing fancy that could be defeated in 3 months. I expect they get through at least the first couple of years.

I'd be shocked if they last one, though mostly because of how thin the combined majority is.

100% attendance is just not possible, for any party. It won't matter for the most part as not that many bills are actually confidence motions. But, that could be one way it falls. Another is a single NDP resignation and they are done - because with an NDP speaker not voting except to break a tie, if they lose just one seat, the Liberals could try to stack the house and punt them.

Or, more likely, the Green-NDP deal will break down. At some point the NDP are going to start chafing at the fact they are the government in name only. Either they will think they can score a majority in a new election, or the Green's demands will reach a point they cannot tolerate. And that will be that.

Minorities are inherently unstable for a reason.

[automaton 3]

Of course they are going to say its a 4 year agreement. But I would be surprised if any of the parties actually expect it to last that long.

It would not surprise me if the NDP finds a way to engineer an election in pursuit of a majority, if the polling is favorable and try to punt the Greens to the curb.

[Flash Walken]

They will focus first on electoral reform. After it is passed and initiated I think the alliance could fracture along the energy portfolio.

A win for the NDP will be having site c shut down and pipelines approved. A win for the greens will mean both of those projects being shut down.

Tough to see how this plays out.

[FireGilbert]

Some of the comments about backroom deals and usurping power are pretty funny. This is exactly the correct outcome. The party that controls the majority of votes in the house is the government.

The outcome reminds me a bit of the 2010 Australian election where the Liberals and Labor tied in seats however Labor was able to run the government with the support of the Greens and Independents. The government lasted the full term however was constantly under attack for pandering to the Greens and was destroyed in the next election.

[Jacks]

People who hate party politics and whipped votes are going to hate this government.

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

They will focus first on electoral reform. After it is passed and initiated I think the alliance could fracture along the energy portfolio.

We'll have to see what their agreement contains, they are supposed to release details after caucus votes on it. The NDP supports taking any electoral reform to a referendum, you'd think that might be a sticking point but I doubt the Libs were even offering that much.

[Regorium]

The morbid part of me likes this result because it means that Trudeau might actually have to do his job on pipelines and tell BC to stfu.

Someone's going to have to take a popularity hit, whether it's Trudeau, or the BC NDP/Greens on this file. There isn't any way to scapegoat Notley on it anymore.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Jacks

People who hate party politics and whipped votes are going to hate this government.


We'll have to see what their agreement contains, they are supposed to release details after caucus votes on it. The NDP supports taking any electoral reform to a referendum, you'd think that might be a sticking point but I doubt the Libs were even offering that much.

I think you'll see the ndp bend over backwards to retain power.

A coalition with the greens actually helps quiet/quench some of their more vocal environmental components that clash internally with some of the union support coming from energy and industry.

There are lots of public sector collective bargaining agreements coming due in the next two years, it's important for the NDP base that they remain in power to see those through.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Regorium

The morbid part of me likes this result because it means that Trudeau might actually have to do his job on pipelines and tell BC to stfu.

Someone's going to have to take a popularity hit, whether it's Trudeau, or the BC NDP/Greens on this file. There isn't any way to scapegoat Notley on it anymore.

Federal funding for BC should come into jeopardy unless and until BC drops the hypocritical BS and join the rest of the nation in reality.

[Derek Sutton]

Originally Posted by Regorium

The morbid part of me likes this result because it means that Trudeau might actually have to do his job on pipelines and tell BC to stfu.

Someone's going to have to take a popularity hit, whether it's Trudeau, or the BC NDP/Greens on this file. There isn't any way to scapegoat Notley on it anymore.

Didn't Notley putting a price on carbon would get pipelines built?

EDIT: off topic

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Weitz

It seems counterintuitive that 2 groups of people that hold such different ideals that they belong to 2 different parties join forces to have power.

But seems par for the course in government.

Again, remember, they are only joining together to have power. That doesn't seem right to me.

If it makes you feel better the greens won 3 seats. In two of them the NDPs were second. In the other their was a virtual tie between the Ndp and the liberals.

[Matty81]

Going to be interesting to see Clark's approach. She has no way to win but she doesn't seem like the type to step down gracefully. Would not surprise me to see her refuse to call the leg till she has to (sept) and go down on the throne speech at the last possible moment if the lt. Governor is passive.

Whenever she does go down, the libs will have the knives out quickly. I wonder if she will leave completely since her west kelowna riding is a can't lose for the liberals anyway and she was parachuted in.

I expect this govt will last 12-18 mths until the first byelections of substance decide its longer term fate. Mlas will be vigilent on confidence motions

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by FireGilbert

Some of the comments about backroom deals and usurping power are pretty funny. This is exactly the correct outcome. The party that controls the majority of votes in the house is the government.

The outcome reminds me a bit of the 2010 Australian election where the Liberals and Labor tied in seats however Labor was able to run the government with the support of the Greens and Independents. The government lasted the full term however was constantly under attack for pandering to the Greens and was destroyed in the next election.

It's like the people weren't happy with the people making deals to have power with non-like minded other parties and voted them out. I'm utterly shocked.

Teaming up with another party you just spent months campaigning against to gain power just makes politics that much more laughable to me.

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by Weitz

It seems counterintuitive that 2 groups of people that hold such different ideals that they belong to 2 different parties join forces to have power.

But seems par for the course in government.

Again, remember, they are only joining together to have power. That doesn't seem right to me.

The BC Liberals are basically Liberals and conservatives that merged to have power.

[FireGilbert]

Originally Posted by Weitz

It's like the people weren't happy with the people making deals to have power with non-like minded other parties and voted them out. I'm utterly shocked.

Teaming up with another party you just spent months campaigning against to gain power just makes politics that much more laughable to me.

If parties are basically tied with out a majority someone has to make a deal with another party or else you are back to the polls. Even when a minority government is attempted it only survives based on deals with other parties, just on a case by case basis instead of a formal agreement. It's not laughable, it's the way the system works.