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Old 07-23-2017, 08:23 PM   #541
GaiJin
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I don't understand your point. Who the ########## runs out of fuel? Morons?

Stupid people?

Who?

When we had propane vehicles, we had even higher tow bills because Gas station attendants didn't know how to properly refuel propane... And the gas guage that's on a propane vehicle is notoriously unreliable.

I would take electric in a heartbeat over propane.
The fuel gauge on our propane forklifts are dead accurate but people just fail at reading them.The % left of battery on our electric forklifts are far more inaccurate, it will be at 75%,load some paper bails and its at 40%. Load a couple of more, and suddenly its stuck in a van trailer at the dock, no where near linear discharge. If you run out of propane, its 2 minute tank change, we just chain tow the electrics off to the charger.
The electrics are all our newer machines, but as drivers, we prefer the propane power, as the power of the machine is always constant. I haven't driven an EV, but on the forklifts, you can really notice the performance drop off as the battery starts to discharge and the response, capability and control of the machine changes constantly. I would hope EV's would be more refined than forklifts in regard to power delivery, especially in winter conditions.
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Old 07-23-2017, 10:20 PM   #542
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I think the point of the comparison with Kodak is that technology isn't always incrementally improved within one paradigm, sometimes one utterly dominant technological solution is completely replaced by another in a short period of time. It's also apt because this quick replacement is much more likely if the technology in question has large support costs to use, as the cost of film and developing did for cameras, and gas and maintenance do for ICE-based cars.

If you can reduce the cost of ownership of a car by a few hundred a month with an electric, almost everyone will change over, and you could indeed have a large majority of electrics on the road by 2030. This is especially likely as the operation of an electric is pretty much like a combustion-engined car; you press one pedal to make it go, you press another to make it stop, and you turn the wheel to steer it. Despite it being utterly different technology underneath, it operates the same way for the end user - again, much like anyone who could operate a film camera could operate a digital one.
Yes of course, if the technology presents a better mouse trap, the better mouse trap will be adopted. No one (at least no one who is rational) is disputing that.

That is not what happened with Kodak. They arrogantly believed that they had the power to stand in the way of progress. And it was their doom.

That's not what is happening with ICEs. There are countless participants with a full spectrum of goals and an obscene amount of potential profits available. The technological change is coming. The only question that is being debated is: how quickly?

And so far, that technological change is still mostly hope and expectation.

But yes, a game-changing advancement would, well, change the game.
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Old 07-27-2017, 03:56 AM   #543
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Britain banning gasoline and diesel cars starting in 2040, this follows news that France said they are considering the same ban in 2040 as well.

No mention of allowing hybrids or banning gas powered motorcycles which probably have about the same emissions.
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The decision to phase out the internal combustion engine heralds a new era of low-emission technologies with major implications for the auto industry, society and the environment.

"We can't carry on with diesel and petrol cars," U.K. environment secretary Michael Gove told the BBC on Wednesday. "There is no alternative to embracing new technology."

Almost 2.7 million new cars were registered in the U.K. in 2016, making it the second biggest market in Europe after Germany.

Meeting the 2040 deadline will be a heavy lift. British demand for electric and fuel cell cars, as well as plug-in hybrids, grew 40% in 2015, but they only accounted for less than 3% of the market.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/news...040/index.html
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Old 07-27-2017, 06:16 AM   #544
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Britain banning gasoline and diesel cars starting in 2040, this follows news that France said they are considering the same ban in 2040 as well.

No mention of allowing hybrids or banning gas powered motorcycles which probably have about the same emissions.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/news...040/index.html
I shouldn't be surprised, I'm just a little amazed that 2 posters omit the exact same word in 2 different stories. A rather important word. Again, they are banning the sale of, not the use of petroleum cars.
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Old 07-28-2017, 07:08 PM   #545
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I shouldn't be surprised, I'm just a little amazed that 2 posters omit the exact same word in 2 different stories. A rather important word. Again, they are banning the sale of, not the use of petroleum cars.
So how many years after the ban should we start to see gas stations close and gas powered automobiles become the minority's?
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Old 07-28-2017, 07:36 PM   #546
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So how many years after the ban should we start to see gas stations close and gas powered automobiles become the minority's?

Well assuming it's like most GHG policies the goal is to pay lip service to the issue to make it look like you are doing something then a future government is left to break the promise when it's not economically feasible. Then the answer is we will never find out as such a ban will never be implemented until after widespread adoption and not required.

Technology will 100% drive this transition not future policy proclamations 25 years out.
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Old 07-28-2017, 08:27 PM   #547
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Until someone can figure out the energy storage issue, gas is going to be the fuel of choice for the majority of people.
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Old 08-08-2017, 10:51 AM   #548
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Even Mazda, a champion of improving the ICE, believes that electrification is inevitable...
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Old 08-08-2017, 02:36 PM   #549
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until someone can figure out the energy storage issue, rotary phones will be the communication device of choice for the majority of people.
fyp
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Old 08-08-2017, 02:56 PM   #550
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fyp
Eh? Ask anyone in the industry what the biggest challenge is. It's energy storage. Motors and any of the other tech is figured out. It's the reason a Tesla can do 0-60 in under 3 seconds. But mass producing batteries? Having enough resources to do it? No. The biggest issue with the model 3 is they can't do batteries fast enough, so they aren't even offering the high capacity for the first year or more. Weight, lifespan, cost, "ingredients"...these are all big big challenges that the brightest minds have been working on for decades and we only have an OK solution for small scale deployment of electric vehicles, not global replacement of the ICE.

Nice thoughtful rotary phone joke though. Big chuckles.
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Old 08-08-2017, 03:14 PM   #551
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Bizarre take.

Batteries cost $1200 per kWh 6 years ago. They're now $200. The US Department of Energy forecasted that this price would be achieved by 2030.

Small improvements?

Your concerns on the supply chain challenges are noted. The market economy has also noted them and is in the process of doubling global battery production in 4 years.



No one's saying that BEV's are just going to replace ICE cars tomorrow. But that doesn't matter. What matters, as I've explained many times on this forum, is the change at the margin. Most people get it. Even Oil executives are starting to see the writing on the wall:

Quote:
Ben van Beurden, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, made no attempt to disguise the challenge facing “Big Oil”. Companies must become more discriminating about which oilfields to develop, he said, with only the most low-cost and productive likely to remain competitive.

“We have to have projects that are resilient in a world where demand has peaked and will be declining,” he said. “When will this happen? We do not know. But will it happen? We are certain.”

Mr van Beurden said “peak demand” could come as soon as the late 2020s in the most bullish scenarios for EV uptake. But that would require “much more aggressive” policy action on climate change and faster innovation in battery technology than seen so far.
https://www.ft.com/content/3946f7f2-...8-60495fe6ca71

Anyway, yes real scaling challenges exist. But to say that they are insurmountable show's a pretty deep pessimism toward the market economy and to recent history. It wasn't 15 years ago that the exact same arguments were being made about solar power. How did those arguments turn out? Not well. Solar and wind now dominate new capacity additions in the power sector just as EVs will dominate new vehicle adoption in the coming 15 years.
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Old 08-08-2017, 03:27 PM   #552
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Ford is changing their thinking.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-fo...15263?mod=e2tw

"Ford’s sales of hybrid and electric vehicles grew 17% last year—the genre made up 3% of company sales—and Ford plans to roll out 13 more electrified vehicles in the next five years, including hybrid versions of its Mustang sports car and top-selling F-150 truck."

It's only a matter of time. The internal combustion engine is on its way out in vehicles. Fossil fuels will still be exploited, but in plants where they can most efficiently used to generate electricity and where their wastes can be properly sequestered or reprocessed.
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Old 08-08-2017, 03:29 PM   #553
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I guess if my argument is the same one Elon Musk makes, it's bizarre? That's bizarre!

Quote:
Engineers have redesigned the software, cooling, electronics and cell layout to fit more power into the same battery pack, akin to “stuffing 11 pounds into a ten-pound bag,” said Musk. “It gets exponentially harder to increase the energy density.”
https://qz.com/764723/tesla-has-maxe...teries-can-do/
Quote:
However, the road to a promised land of zero-emission vehicles is littered with speed bumps and red lights that threaten to seriously slow the progress of the electric car. Battery makers are struggling to secure supplies of key ingredients in these large power packs – mainly cobalt and lithium. The hopes of both battery and vehicle manufacturers hang on the mining sector finding more deposits of these precious minerals.
Trent Mell of First Cobalt, a Toronto-based mining company, said: “Cobalt is tricky because of the scarcity of supply. There aren’t a lot of producers. We’re relying on more discoveries. It’s out there: we’ve just got to find it.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-cobalt-mining

I'm not saying it isn't going to happen, or that these challenges are insurmountable. I'm saying we don't have a solution, and we need a big step, not incremental improvements if electric vehicles are going to make that large scale movement to replacing the ICE. Eating away at the margins while the pie continues to grow doesn't really change the overall number of ICE vehicles on the road.
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Old 08-08-2017, 03:33 PM   #554
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Originally Posted by Tinordi View Post
Bizarre take.
Your concerns on the supply chain challenges are noted. The market economy has also noted them and is in the process of doubling global battery production in 4 years.
300 GWh is roughly the equivalent of 1 million barrels of oil with conversion losses. It's a puny amount of energy.

Quote:
No one's saying that BEV's are just going to replace ICE cars tomorrow. But that doesn't matter. What matters, as I've explained many times on this forum, is the change at the margin. Most people get it. Even Oil executives are starting to see the writing on the wall:
Shell is arguably more of a natural gas player now, and increased penetration EVs and unreliable renewables greatly benefit natural gas.

Quote:
It wasn't 15 years ago that the exact same arguments were being made about solar power. How did those arguments turn out? Not well. Solar and wind now dominate new capacity additions in the power sector just as EVs will dominate new vehicle adoption in the coming 15 years.
Capacities are misleading given their lousy capacity factors and solar and wind still remain rounding errors in human energy usage and are less important than burning wood, grasses and animal dung. And in grids where they have higher penetration, cost to the consumer and difficulties in maintaining reliability are becoming major issues.

The biggest energy story of the last 15 years has been the growth of coal (thanks to China) and fracking.
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Old 08-08-2017, 03:42 PM   #555
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Sigh. No one is arguing that BEVs are going to take over the market by 2021 or that the transition to renewable energy wont take decades. Again, it's the marginal change that matters to capital markets and investment in things like Alberta's oil sands which is what this thread's about. As I've been saying on these boards for nigh on 3 years now, the growth phase for AB's oil sector is over thanks to global mega-trends in the energy sector.
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Old 08-08-2017, 03:47 PM   #556
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Alberta's oil industry is being threatened by the global oil industry, not by BEV's. You can argue about the margins until you are blue in the face, it doesn't change the fact that oil demand is on an upward trend, and has been forever.
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Old 08-08-2017, 03:57 PM   #557
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I'm saying we don't have a solution, and we need a big step, not incremental improvements if electric vehicles are going to make that large scale movement to replacing the ICE. Eating away at the margins while the pie continues to grow doesn't really change the overall number of ICE vehicles on the road.
Just for context's sake, how would you classify a 83% decline in production costs in 6 years an incremental improvement?

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Alberta's oil industry is being threatened by the global oil industry, not by BEV's. You can argue about the margins until you are blue in the face, it doesn't change the fact that oil demand is on an upward trend, and has been forever.
What does this even mean? What is your story in this thread? Do you think EVs will impact the global oil market or not?
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Old 08-08-2017, 04:00 PM   #558
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To your last question, In short, no, not until we have something better much better than the current battery technology.

Answer this, if batteries are getting so affordable, why do we need to have thousands of dollars in government rebates to make the cars affordable(and still more than a comparable ICE)?
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Old 08-08-2017, 07:01 PM   #559
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lol, under rated post.
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Old 08-08-2017, 08:44 PM   #560
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To your last question, In short, no, not until we have something better much better than the current battery technology.

Answer this, if batteries are getting so affordable, why do we need to have thousands of dollars in government rebates to make the cars affordable(and still more than a comparable ICE)?
To incentivize adoption and change the economics of providing infrastructure
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