EV's and Transportation as a Service to kill Alberta economy by 2030?
Electric vehicles will kill global oil industry by 2030, says Stanford economist Tony Seba. If Tony Seba is correct, the Texas and Alberta economies just took a metaphorical bullet to the head
Spoiler!
The approval of autonomous vehicles will unleash a highly competitive
market-share grab among existing and new Pre-TaaS (ride-hailing)
companies in expectation of the outsized rewards of trillions of dollars of
market opportunities and network effects. Pre-TaaS platform providers
like Uber, Lyft and Didi are already engaged, and others will join this
high-speed race. Winners-take-all dynamics will force them to make
large upfront investments to provide the highest possible level of service,
ensuring supply matches demand in each geographic market they enter.
In this intensely competitive environment, businesses will offer services
at a price trending toward cost. As a result, their fleets will quickly
transition from human-driven, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles
to autonomous electric vehicles (A-EV) because of key cost factors,
including ten times higher vehicle-utilization rates, 500,000-mile vehicle
lifetimes (potentially improving to 1 million miles by 2030), and far lower
maintenance, energy, finance and insurance costs.
As a result, transport-as-a-service (TaaS) will offer vastly lower-cost
transport alternatives — four to ten times cheaper per mile than
buying a new car and two to four times cheaper than operating an
existing vehicle in 2021.
Other revenue sources from advertising, data monetization,
entertainment and product sales will open a road to free transport in a
TaaS Pool model, as private and public transportation begin to merge.
Cost saving will also be the key factor in driving consumers to adopt
TaaS.
Adoption will start in cities and radiate outward to rural areas. Nonadopters
will be largely restricted to the most rural areas, where cost and
wait times are likely to be higher.
High vehicle utilization (each car will be used at least 10 times more than
individually owned cars) will mean that far fewer cars will be needed in
the U.S. vehicle fleet, and therefore there will be no supply constraint to
the speed and extent of TaaS adoption that we forecast.
Taken together, this analysis forecasts a very fast and extensive disruption:
TaaS will provide 95% of the passenger miles traveled within 10 years of
the widespread regulatory approval of AVs. By 2030, individually owned ICE
vehicles will still represent 40% of the vehicles in the U.S. vehicle fleet, but
they will provide just 5% of passenger miles.
Behavioral issues such as love of driving, fear of new technology or habit
are generally believed to pose initial barriers to consumer uptake. However,
Pre-TaaS companies such as Uber, Lyft and Didi have invested billions of
dollars developing technologies and services to overcome these issues. In
2016, Pre-TaaS companies drove 500,000 passengers per day in New York
City alone.1 That was triple the number of passengers driven the previous
year. The combination of TaaS’s dramatically lower costs compared with
car ownership and exposure to successful peer experience will drive more
widespread usage of the service. Adopting TaaS requires no investment or
lock-in. Consumers can try it with ease and increase usage as their comfort
level increases. Even in suburban and rural areas, where wait times and
cost might be slightly higher, adoption is likely to be more extensive than
generally forecast because of the greater impact of cost savings on lower
incomes. As with any technology disruption, adoption will grow along an
exponential S-curve.
I agree with this article. Over the past few years we've gone down from 3 cars to 1, and I use uber for anything else required. In a few years, if the costs keep going down, I don't see the need fora second vehicle.
Last edited by Hammertime; 05-06-2017 at 02:25 PM.
It would be smart if Calgary and Edmonton would start to change the focus of their businesses from Oil to technology to become basically Silicon Valley north. With out tax structure, it would be beneficial for the tech companies to come here and we already have a lot of white collar infrastructure that could easily be adapted. Certain portions of Alberta are going to be screwed either way though.
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Those projections seem overly-optimistic to me. I expect commercial fleets will quickly switch to autonomous EVs. The private market will take a long time.
Look at young families. Has anyone seen what a couple pre-schoolers do to a car? Are people really going to want to hop into a car that was just used by a family with a 3 year old and a 5 year old to make a trip to McDonald's? Then there's the issue of car seat compatibility.
Smokers still make up around 15 per cent of the population. They'll want their own vehicles to smoke in.
Then there's simple status. Can't impress people with your taste and affluence if everyone uses car shares.
I expect we'll see close to 50 per cent private vehicles for at least another 20 years after autonomous vehicles clear their regulatory hurdles.
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Not a chance. There is zero chance electrical vehicles will be main stream by 2030. More like 2060 if they're lucky.
There is no requirement that EVs become mainstream in order to kill the Alberta economy. We have spent the last 3 years experiencing the impacts of a relatively small amount of overproduction of oil.
Not a chance. There is zero chance electrical vehicles will be main stream by 2030. More like 2060 if they're lucky.
Every major manufacturer in the world has been sinking millions/billions into EV technology for at least five years. 2030 seems optimistic for them to become "oil industry killing" to me too, but no way it's going to take 43 more years for them to become the norm.
There is no requirement that EVs become mainstream in order to kill the Alberta economy. We have spent the last 3 years experiencing the impacts of a relatively small amount of overproduction of oil.
It's going to happen. Time to start planning for it.
While I'm probably more bullish on EVs than almost anyone in this thread, remember that Oil is a lot more than transportation fuel. Demand for plastics will skyrocket
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Not a chance. There is zero chance electrical vehicles will be main stream by 2030. More like 2060 if they're lucky.
This is very short sighted.
Battery powered EVs will likely be cheaper to operate than gas in as little as six years. Add in the scale that Tesla is likely to prove, and there's no reason why 20 30 isn't realistic .
Plus, as mentioned earlier, there doesn't need to be a majority if EVs to severely affect a market sustained on transportation fuel as it is now.
There is no requirement that EVs become mainstream in order to kill the Alberta economy. We have spent the last 3 years experiencing the impacts of a relatively small amount of overproduction of oil.
Battery powered EVs will likely be cheaper to operate than gas in as little as six years. Add in the scale that Tesla is likely to prove, and there's no reason why 20 30 isn't realistic .
Plus, as mentioned earlier, there doesn't need to be a majority if EVs to severely affect a market sustained on transportation fuel as it is now.
Major disruption is coming. Full stop
They're still way too expensive for the average car owner to own. Even if it takes 6 years for them to be cheaper, it'll take at least 20 more years for them to hit the resale market where everyone can afford one. 2030 is absurd.
They're still way too expensive for the average car owner to own. Even if it takes 6 years for them to be cheaper, it'll take at least 20 more years for them to hit the resale market where everyone can afford one. 2030 is absurd.
You are missing half of the story...there is an expectation that the business model of owning a car will be displaced.
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Last edited by Fozzie_DeBear; 05-06-2017 at 04:44 PM.
They're still way too expensive for the average car owner to own. Even if it takes 6 years for them to be cheaper, it'll take at least 20 more years for them to hit the resale market where everyone can afford one. 2030 is absurd.
We're not looking for majority EVs. We're looking for the point where there's enough EVs to disrupt the oil industry. That's much less than 50%
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They're still way too expensive for the average car owner to own. Even if it takes 6 years for them to be cheaper, it'll take at least 20 more years for them to hit the resale market where everyone can afford one. 2030 is absurd.
The thing is that at some point you start experiencing fuel savings which pay for a large portion of the car loan and subsequent battery replacement loan (which will effectively be the backbone of the resale market for these cars).
We're also considering TaaS, which means that you won't even be the one buying the car. Uber buys the car and offers you free rides wherever you need to go. In exchange, you watch TV ads or provide other valuable information during your trip.
Last edited by CampbellsTransgressions; 05-06-2017 at 04:43 PM.
EV's and Transportation as a Service to kill Alberta economy by 2030?
