ESPN's mock Vegas expansion draft

[GoJetsGo]

Yea no one needs to "be prepared to lose Ferland" because of one person's 'out-on-a-limb' minority opinion.

I think it's a non-starter. Ferland has emerged to the point where he's going to be protected.

Treliving all but said they acquired Lazar with the intention of protecting him as well.

If the organization is higher on Brouwer than a lot of people here, the simple explanation would be they'll make some kind of deal to protect both Lazar and Brouwer. I honestly don't think that would be very difficult if that's the route they want to take.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by hurtin_albertan

People here seem to be forgetting how massive a force Ferland was for the Flames when they last made the playoffs. He had Bieksa afraid to even touch the puck by the end of the series against the Canucks. It's not just that he's found a groove on the top line but if he's in there punishing the opponent's top D pair that will be on the ice against Johnny and Monny, it could be the difference between moving on and going home.

If it's between Ferland and Brouwer, I think performance in this year's playoffs decides it.

Yup, pretty much this. I think the playoff version of both players will be the deciding factor.

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

You forgot Vermette also has a NMC and is on the books for another year.

It does appear the Ducks are going to lose a good player either at forward or defense if they don't do a side deal with Vegas, so I guess I was a little quick on that one. Perhaps they buy out Bieksa's final year to get rid of his NMC and make their protection list a little more palatable.

Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Vermette, Rakell, Silfverberg, Cogliano

Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen

Gibson

If I'm their GM I have no problem dumping the 35 year old in favor of keeping the rest of that roster together.

Vermette has a NTC and I don't think that protects them from the expansion draft judging by both Capfriendly and the specific wording in the NHL post

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Anduril

Vermette has a NTC and I don't think that protects them from the expansion draft judging by both Capfriendly and the specific wording in the NHL post]

Weird, I'm also looking at cap friendly and they have his terms on the Ducks main page as a NMC.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

You forgot Vermette also has a NMC and is on the books for another year.

It does appear the Ducks are going to lose a good player either at forward or defense if they don't do a side deal with Vegas, so I guess I was a little quick on that one. Perhaps they buy out Bieksa's final year to get rid of his NMC and make their protection list a little more palatable.

Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Vermette, Rakell, Silfverberg, Cogliano

Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen

Gibson

If I'm their GM I have no problem dumping the 35 year old in favor of keeping the rest of that roster together.

I am LV I jump all over Josh Manson. Seriously underrated D man, I would pick him over Silf easily if given the choice between the two.

[Southside]

Honestly it is Brouwer or Lazar left exposed. More likely Brouwer. Ferland will be protected.

[Bear]

The only issue I see with making a side deal to protect an additional player is the Flames lack of draft capital. Between the Lazar, Stone and Elliott deals we're not flush with picks in the upcoming draft. Though maybe VGK would be willing to take picks in latter years so as to spread out the emerging talent pool a bit.

[dissentowner]

I can't believe we are debating over whether Ferland will be protected, it is a slam dunk to protect him. He has the skill to break out as 20-30 goal PF that can play RW. You expose Brouwer because except for the past week he has taken the whole season off and his salary makes him less likely to be picked. Even if he is picked you gain cap space. I see no scenario where Ferland is not protected either through a slot or through a side deal to not select him.

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Weird, I'm also looking at cap friendly and they have his terms on the Ducks main page as a NMC.

NMC: now - Jun 16, 2017
NTC: Jun 17, 2017 - Jun 30, 2017
M-NTC: Jul 1, 2017 - end (8 team trade list)

His NMC expires before the draft.

[codynw]

If Ferland goes to Vegas I'll lose my ####ing mind.

[FBI]

The difference is Colbornes late surge was during garbage time when the games didn't matter. Ferlands surge is when the games are HUGELY important.

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I tend to agree with you, but don't forget that the team parted ways with Colborne after his late season surge, largely because he was inconsistent. I wouldn't be surprised if they view Ferland the same way. It's just as likely as them considering him to be a long term solution on the wing.

I like Ferland a lot, but he has been maddeningly inconsistent in his NHL career so far.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Southside

That's not what you said. "That said I wouldn't be surprised if Brouwer and his agent covered their bases when they signed the deal and has something written in it about the expansion draft."

Brouwer has no protection and everyone knew this expansion draft was coming, so any handshake deal would have been properly negotiated in the form of a NMC. That is the "something written" in the deal that you are referring to.

It's exactly what I said in my initial post in the thread;

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's all going to come down to how they handle Brouwer. There's no way Lazar is not protected as Treliving would have egg on his face for tossing away a 2nd round pick. No way they take that risk. I would like to think Brouwer is the odd man out but it's hard to say as it's possible Brouwer was assured that he wouldn't be exposed prior to singing his contract last summer. If that's the case then Ferland would be the guy however if that's the case I wouldn't rule out the Flames trading him prior to the expansion draft if there's a market for him.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by FBI

The difference is Colbornes late surge was during garbage time when the games didn't matter. Ferlands surge is when the games are HUGELY important.

I should like to add that Ferland plays an entirely different sort of game than Colborne that makes him extremely valuable to the Flames—or any team for that matter.

[doctajones428]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

That's a sample size of 15 whole games. You can't extrapolate such a small data set for a full season.

Meanwhile, Brouwer has put up multiple seasons of 20 goals and 40+ points, yet nobody wants to consider this season a blip.

BTW, Brouwer has scored 3 goals in his last 4 games. He's on pace for 60 goals by your logic.

Yes, because extrapolating numbers over approximately 1/5th of a season is as ridiculous as 1/20th of one.

You sure showed me

[theslymonkey]

I don't get why people think Ferland won't be protected, he's shown to be more valuable than Brouwer or Lazar. So the last spot is between those two.

The thing that most people aren't considering is that every team is going to lose a player to the draft. If it's Lazar, it's really not that big of a deal. I'm willing to bet that most GM's would gladly give the Knights their 2017 2nd Round pick to leave their team alone, which is basically what the Flames would be doing if they lost Lazar to them.

[Erick Estrada]

I think people are getting a little carried away with Ferland's upside. He's gelling well on the top line right now but he wasn't exactly having a great season until he got promoted. He's doing fine as a finisher playing with Monahan and Gaudreau but he hasn't showed anything offensively over his career when not paired with them. I'm not saying he won't be protected but it's a possibility for sure. I would hope the GM has a longer memory than fans. Remember late December when fans here were clamoring for Johnson to he signed as the starter going forward? I remember the posts. Can't put too much stock into a short stretch of elevated play.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by doctajones428

Yes, because extrapolating numbers over approximately 1/5th of a season is as ridiculous as 1/20th of one.

You sure showed me

Ferland has also scored 1 goal in his last 7 games. He can get hot like any player, but he's never shown that level of play consistently over a couple of seasons in the NHL.

Do you really think he's a 38 goal player? Is he more likely to consistently put up 20 goals every year, or is Brouwer more likely to do that? These are not easy to predict and age certainly plays a factor, but we shouldn't assume that Ferland will continue on this pace if his past play is any indication. Nor should we assume that Brouwer will continue to be a lame duck player based on what he's done in the past, but with a much larger sample size.

[SofaProfessor]

Vegas is going to have a really solid crop of goalies to pick from which is good considering their options when it comes to defence. Yikes...

The forward group is meh. There might be some guys that are overpaid who get exposed and end up having decent seasons in Vegas to make the team somewhat respectable.

[Duffalufagus]

You don't leave young guys making $825,000 that play on your top line (concede may not be long term) exposed. He will get picked off like one of those lizards running up the rocks in Planet Earth II.

The Flames will look to lock him up this off-season for something in the Bennett range and, likely, less. He may not score 35 goals. And he is a bit hot and cold. But I'm taking the over on 22.5 goals next year if he plays on the top line.

[868904]

I'd hate to see this team without Ferland or Engelland next year. Talk about soft.