Depends on term. 4 years or under? Probably $5.5-$6M. Over 4 years, could probably knock $1-$1.5 off that if it's long enough.
My guess if he signs with the Flames is a 5 year, $5.25M AAV deal.
Edit: it also depends when he signs it ... if he has another Selke-quality season where he puts up 50+ points his value goes up.
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