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Old 01-08-2016, 05:52 PM   #1
KevanGuy
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Default Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

Please use this thread for discussion around the current oil situation. If you have layoff news, post it in the layoff thread: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=149623 Thanks.
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Old 01-08-2016, 11:24 PM   #2
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Oil now hovering around the $33 mark, that's an ultra low price cushioned just slightly by the low CAD. There are going to a be a lot of service companies big and small that won't be around by the of 2016.
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Old 01-11-2016, 12:05 PM   #3
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Good start to 2016. WTI at $31 today after another -6.5% plunge.

I'm expecting the layoff thread to get really active with actual layoff news around March (end of Q1).

Royalty review results will be done in the next couple weeks. In this environment, I doubt the review will have any effect on producers, unless the NDP is really dumber than I thought.
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Old 01-11-2016, 12:26 PM   #4
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Don't know if this belongs in here, but the BC provincial government just formally opposed the Kinder Morgan pipeline.
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Old 01-11-2016, 12:30 PM   #5
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knew that was coming.

time to see if we can drive a pipeline north and to an Alaskan port I guess.

Or tell BC that we don't like the carbon coming from trucks full of their goods coming across Alberta and heading east so we're going to put a toll on it.
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Old 01-11-2016, 12:36 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube View Post
Don't know if this belongs in here, but the BC provincial government just formally opposed the Kinder Morgan pipeline.
Political posturing - the BC government has no jurisdiction over inter-provincial pipelines.

It's so when the NEB approves it (and justifiably so considering it's twinning an existing pipeline, on the same land and same right of way, carrying the same product through the same terrain), they can tell their voters that they tried their best but the evil Harper-controlled NEB forced their hand.
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Old 01-11-2016, 12:38 PM   #7
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Can any oil sands producer turn a profit at $31?
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Old 01-11-2016, 12:41 PM   #8
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Can any oil sands producer turn a profit at $31?
Nope.
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Old 01-11-2016, 12:41 PM   #9
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New investment is not profitable at 31 wti. However maintaining current production and operating at least in the sagd area is.
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Old 01-11-2016, 12:43 PM   #10
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New investment is not profitable at 31 wti. However maintaining current production and operating at least in the sagd area is.
Very debatable. I'd say best case is break even at this price.

Edit.....I spoke using bad or misplaced memory cells. It looks like Cenovus, as an example, runs their plants at about $10-$15 a barrel.

Last edited by Leeman4Gilmour; 01-11-2016 at 12:48 PM.
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Old 01-11-2016, 12:54 PM   #11
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Quote:
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Edit.....I spoke using bad or misplaced memory cells. It looks like Cenovus, as an example, runs their plants at about $10-$15 a barrel.
Yeah a lot of the SAGD plants are ~$18bbl. Although that should be WCS, not WTI price AFAIK.
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Old 01-11-2016, 12:56 PM   #12
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I did a lot of stakeholder consulting on TMEP in the Lower Mainland. I didn't witness the Burnaby Mountain fiasco, but I was blockaded inside of a geotech worksite in Burnaby with a bunch of very angry drillers by the standard motley ragtags.

Later on during the day, Burnaby city officials came in support... of the protesters.

KM better build that **** pipe. The lack of real infrastructure in this country will kill any possible recovery.

EDIT: I was famous! Briefly. That's me in the green fleece.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/britis...ay-1-1.2970620

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Old 01-11-2016, 01:02 PM   #13
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Horizon runs at about 26-28 right now per barrel
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Old 01-11-2016, 02:22 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch View Post
knew that was coming.

time to see if we can drive a pipeline north and to an Alaskan port I guess.

Or tell BC that we don't like the carbon coming from trucks full of their goods coming across Alberta and heading east so we're going to put a toll on it.
That's the approach i've been wanting to use with BC for years now.
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Old 01-11-2016, 02:25 PM   #15
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So at what point will we see further movement at the pump?


The price has been "stuck" at $0.82(ish) for some time.
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Old 01-11-2016, 02:30 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peter12 View Post
I did a lot of stakeholder consulting on TMEP in the Lower Mainland. I didn't witness the Burnaby Mountain fiasco, but I was blockaded inside of a geotech worksite in Burnaby with a bunch of very angry drillers by the standard motley ragtags.

Later on during the day, Burnaby city officials came in support... of the protesters.

KM better build that **** pipe. The lack of real infrastructure in this country will kill any possible recovery.

EDIT: I was famous! Briefly. That's me in the green fleece.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/britis...ay-1-1.2970620
Nice one! Shouldn't you be wearing tweed or something though?
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Old 01-11-2016, 02:35 PM   #17
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Oh the safety vest doubles as a velvet smoking jacket.
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Old 01-11-2016, 02:38 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peter12 View Post
I did a lot of stakeholder consulting on TMEP in the Lower Mainland. I didn't witness the Burnaby Mountain fiasco, but I was blockaded inside of a geotech worksite in Burnaby with a bunch of very angry drillers by the standard motley ragtags.

Later on during the day, Burnaby city officials came in support... of the protesters.

KM better build that **** pipe. The lack of real infrastructure in this country will kill any possible recovery.

EDIT: I was famous! Briefly. That's me in the green fleece.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/britis...ay-1-1.2970620
I always pictured you as a flat cap kind of guy, not ball cap.
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Old 01-11-2016, 02:41 PM   #19
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I always pictured you as a flat cap kind of guy, not ball cap.
Yeah, but they are custom-fitted throwback wool ball caps.

https://www.ebbets.com/
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Old 01-11-2016, 02:45 PM   #20
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Ugh, this is just getting uglier every day.
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