Magic Numbers Thread

[Caged Great]

I have modified the original post to have the both the Magic Number and the Elimination Number listed in two different ways. For the Points column under the Magic Number, that is the total number of points that the team listed needs to acquire or have the 9th placed team (LA) lose in order to clinch. In Anaheim's case, they need some combination of 6 points through W-L-OT between them gaining and LA losing. Under the Wins column, it's the same info as the Points column except divided by two. That way a win will subtract 1 from that column, an OTL 0.5 and a loss will not change anything unless you're the 9th placed team in which case that will lower the magic #'s for everyone by 1.

Calgary currently needs a combination of 2 points gained by us/lost by Los Angeles to clinch a playoff spot or 1.0 wins. This table does not count tie breakers because they are too changeable to keep track of, especially when the ROW would be hypothetically tied. Calgary does have the tie breaker on most of the conference, so in our case, you can remove 0.5 for a better indication of the actual #.



Magic Numbers Vs Each Team.

[Caged Great]

Bold Indicates Home Game
Red Indicates Western Conference Opponent

Vancouver 4 GM Remaining (3 Home, 1 Road) - 2 VS Playoffs - 2 VS Those Outside

Winnipeg, Los Angeles, Arizona, Edmonton

Calgary 4 GM Remaining (2 Home, 2 Road) - 1 VS Playoffs - 3 VS Those Outside

Edmonton, Arizona, Los Angeles, Winnipeg

Winnipeg 5 GM Remaining (2 Home, 3 Road) - 4 VS Playoffs - 1 VS Those Outside

Vancouver, Minnesota, St. Louis, Colorado, Calgary

Los Angeles 5 GM Remaining (2 Home, 3 Road) - 2 VS Playoffs - 3 VS Those Outside

Colorado, Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, San Jose

[Dan02]

What's your sorting system? it's not points, max points, magic number or games remainnig yet your solid line makes on think they're ranked into the 8 current playoff teams.

Or did you just flip acciddently drop San Jose 3 spots?

[Caged Great]

Accidentally dropped SJ 3 spots, it's been fixed

[terminator]

can someone kindly explain this to me?

[Robbob]

Looking at it I'm a bit confused as the numbers to be eliminated should be lower for the teams below Calgary. I think the Magic number to eliminate Calgary is around 15. Where is the 39 coming from?

[Jacks]

What does magic number mean?

[RockOnRoberts]

Is it any combination of 27 wins for the Flames or losses by the 9th place team that means we make the playoffs?

[smalltownref]

Originally Posted by Jacks

What does magic number mean?

Magic Number represents the combination of Team Wins and Opponents Losses to make the playoffs.

For example, with the Flames, they currently have 28 games remaining in the regular season. Right now they have a total of 63 points on the campaign. If they win all 28 remaining games, they will earn 56 points from these victories, and their point total at the end of the year would be 119 points.

By comparison, the first team outside of the playoffs right now is the Wild. They have 29 games left to go, and currently have 59 points on the season so far. If they were to win all their remaining games, they would earn an additional 58 points, for a total of 117 points on the campaign.

Assuming that the standings stay the same for right now, for the Flames to make the playoffs, the Flames need to win and the Wild need to lose any combination of games that add up to 27.

To explain this theory, if the Flames win 20 of their remaining 28 games, they will end up with 103 points (63 currently + 40 points for 20 wins = 103 points). With the Flames magic number being at 28, that means that if the Flames win 20 games to finish out the season, the Wild only need to lose 8 games (in regulation) for the Flames to make the playoffs. If the Wild lose 8 games, that means that they will win 21 games (they have 29 games left remaining). With 59 points currently, they would gain an additional 42 points through the 21 victories, giving them a total of 101 points on the season.

In this example, assuming no other team passes the Wild for the first place non-playoff team, and the Flames don't pass any other team currently in the playoffs, the Flames would make the playoffs with 103 points and the Wild would miss it with 101.

[Caged Great]

The magic # is the combined amounts of wins by the club and the losses by the 9th placed team in order to qualify for the post season.

If your magic # = 0, or is a negative number, it means that you have clinched a playoff spot. If your number is higher than the amount of games you have left to play, you need help.

[Otto-matic]

Ah its refreshing to start talking about the magic number with the Flames, its been a while!

[Caged Great]

Believe it or not, the 9th placed team according to the magic number is the San Jose Sharks. In order to calculate the magic # properly, the 1-8 teams are based off the maximum potential points rather than the standings.

In order to be better than the Sharks, you need 117 points and that's what it's calculated off of.

[Enoch Root]

this should really be done in a matrix - each team has a different magic number against each other team.

I assume Calgary's 27 number is relative to Minnesota. They would have a different number relative to SJ (looks like 26.5 by my quick look).

As teams win, and lose, they move up and down the standings and different teams become the relevant opponent.

So the best way to do this is in a matrix, with the differential for each pairing listed.

(just saying)

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

this should really be done in a matrix - each team has a different magic number against each other team.

I assume Calgary's 27 number is relative to Minnesota. They would have a different number relative to SJ (looks like 26.5 by my quick look).

As teams win, and lose, they move up and down the standings and different teams become the relevant opponent.

So the best way to do this is in a matrix, with the differential for each pairing listed.

(just saying)

I (or someone else) usually add that later on, when we get closer to the 60-65 game mark.

I haven't had to do this in three years, so I'll look into it.

[Enoch Root]

To put it another way, in order to make the playoffs, you need to eliminate 6 teams, or 3 divisional opponents.

The Flames magic number against the Oilers is 15. Once they get 15 wins or the Oilers lose 15, or any combination therein (so probably about 8-10 games from now), the Flames have eliminated one team and are one step closer to the playoffs.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I (or someone else) usually add that later on, when we get closer to the 60-65 game mark.

I haven't had to do this in three years, so I'll look into it.

Thanks (wasn't asking)

[Tyler]

Looking forward to future years where we don't have to do this.

This takes me back to the late 00's and our overpaid, underperforming team that kept squeaking into the playoffs

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Why not just do it as a list of each teams magic number compared to the flames?

Then we can eliminate teams when their magic # becomes larger than their remaining number of games.

[Vulcan]

Thanks for doing this. Right now it doesn't mean a lot to me but when it gets down to single digit numbers, I'll be paying attention.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Thanks (wasn't asking)

Here you go