Playoff pace and controlling our own destiny

[Resolute 14]

Squiggs - Maybe add a bar that tracks the second wildcard's 82 game pace?

Enoch Root - I've always found that to be something of a tomato tomahto problem, but it really depends on perspective. For a team occupying a playoff spot, the pace is set by the 9th place team. For a team chasing a playoff spot, the pace is set by the 8th place team. So yes, I would agree that from our current perspective, LA's pace as the 9th place team is what matters. But if the two squads flip position, they likewise flip perspective.

[Enoch Root]

For Edmonton's target line, I would suggest the pace of whoever is in 30th (which is usually the Oilers of course)

[Tsawwassen]

This is a pretty cool infographic about each canadian team's chances on making the playoffs. Can't believe the Canucks have a much greater chance than the Flames.

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-playoff-odds-canadian-teams-chances-vary-1.2932162

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Tsawwassen

This is a pretty cool infographic about each canadian team's chances on making the playoffs. Can't believe the Canucks have a much greater chance than the Flames.

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-playoff-odds-canadian-teams-chances-vary-1.2932162

All they are doing is taking the Sports Club Stats percentages and putting a picture with them. The sportsclub stats link has been posted in this thread and there are multiple threads discussing it. How is it hard to believe Vancouver is ahead of Calgary? They have two more points and two games in hand. After 45 games played they are 2.32 points above the 96 point line, while Calgary was 1.68 points below it. If Calgary wins their next game (Buffalo) and Vancouver loses their next three (Anaheim, Buffalo, Minnesota (all home)), then they'd be tied. I'm not sure I see that happening.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I would argue that while the Flames are in a playoff spot, the relevant pace is the one being set by whoever is in 9th (all the Flames have to do is beat whoever is in 9th). When the Flames are in 9th or worse, then the relevant pace is being set by whoever is in 8th (because that's who you have to catch).

Right now, the Kings are in 9th and on a pace for 90.7 points. Anyone ahead of them is in, so that's the current pace to beat.

Logically that makes sense but I believe if the Kings stay their pace they will miss the play offs. They are under achieving right now and are known to pick it up at the end so their current pace is meaningless.

If we say 96 is the pace even if Kings blow past that it makes sense that another team would fall off below that rate.

[polak]

96 is still just a guess based on historical accuracy. We need to stay ahead of the pace of 9th place. The only way to fall under 8th is to fall under the pace of 9th. It doesn't matter which team is in 9th, just that we are ahead of the pace of 9th.

Historical data can go out the window.

[playmaker]

any chance to see the "snakes" updated ?

[squiggs96]

After January's games are complete the Flames are 1.537 below the pace. If they win the next two games (Winnipeg & San Jose), they will be above the line.

[GGG]

We are now slightly above a 96 pt pace with 61 pts in 52 games it's a 96.2 pt pace.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

After January's games are complete the Flames are 1.537 below the pace. If they win the next two games (Winnipeg & San Jose), they will be above the line.

Well they won the last two games and now the sexy red snake is above the black snake. Take that black snake. It's the first time being above the pace since the end of game 30 on December 11th, a 4-1 loss in Buffalo. That was the 3rd game of the 8 game losing streak. Flames are above the pace by 0.122! A win is required in the next game (Pittsburgh) to stay above the line.

Edmonton has fallen to a new low being 23.878 points below the pace. If they win their remaining 30 games they will have 97 points. If they lose their next one they cannot make the pace snake, even with 29 straight wins.

[djsFlames]

Yes, a snake update!

Lol I like that we're still tracking Edmonton's too. This update shows visually how we've reversed the damage of the mid season slump. Back on track!

[polak]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Well they won the last two games and now the sexy red snake is above the black snake. Take that black snake. It's the first time being above the pace since the end of game 30 on December 11th, a 4-1 loss in Buffalo. That was the 3rd game of the 8 game losing streak. Flames are above the pace by 0.122! A win is required in the next game (Pittsburgh) to stay above the line.

Edmonton has fallen to a new low being 23.878 points below the pace. If they win their remaining 30 games they will have 97 points. If they lose their next one they cannot make the pace snake, even with 29 straight wins.

Once you go black, you never go back

[Resolute 14]

The interesting thing about the snake is that we are barely above last year's pace, but well above this year's.

The Pacific/Wild card race sorted by point pace:

Vancouver     P2  98.7 +10.2
Calgary       P3  96.2 + 7.7
San Jose      W1  96.2 + 7.7
Winnipeg      W2  94.3 + 5.8
----------------------------
Minnesota         88.5 - 5.8
Dallas            88.5 - 5.8
Los Angeles       88.5 - 5.8
Colorado          88.4 - 5.9

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The interesting thing about the snake is that we are barely above last year's pace, but well above this year's.

This got me thinking. What did our snake look like last year? Introducing: THE GREEN SNAKE! If you'll notice, the green snake was above the red snake for the first 8 games of the season. If you remember the green snake also wound up fourth worst in the entire NHL. It was a dark spot for Calgary fans. That said, at not one point is the green snake ever below the hideous blue snake. Not once. They do touch after game 17, but the blue snake is never above the green snake and that was Calgary's worst season in its last nine years (lockouts not included). Can the blue snake pass the green snake? Unlikely, given that Calgary won games 51-55 last year and after 52 games Edmonton is six points ahead. Edmonton would have to win their next 9 games in a row to get ahead of the green snake.

The red snake is 18 points up on the green snake after 52 games.

[GGG]

If you look at after game 50 (I think thats win Gio finally got healthy and started to go on his Norris Trophy run) we run parallel to the playoff line.

Essentially we have been at or around a 96pt pace for a season worth of games.

[GGG]

The other interesting question about the playoff snake would be at what rate are points accumulated.

Are there really more 3 pt games in the last 1/3rd of the season? or is that comfirmation bias.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by GGG

If you look at after game 50 (I think thats win Gio finally got healthy and started to go on his Norris Trophy run) we run parallel to the playoff line.

Essentially we have been at or around a 96pt pace for a season worth of games.

Yes the last half of last year was the most fun I'd had at the dome in a loooooong time previous to that. I agree that they've been playing great hockey for essentially a full season now.

[united]

Originally Posted by GGG

The other interesting question about the playoff snake would be at what rate are points accumulated.

Are there really more 3 pt games in the last 1/3rd of the season? or is that comfirmation bias.

I always assumed the same as you...but I just checked out how many points each game is worth league-wide on average, and it doesn't appear so. Hopefully someone can verify or point out errors as I did this in about 2 minutes. I used puckon.net for info.

..............First 55 (2/3)...Last 27 (1/3)
2013-14: ....2.25...............2.24
2011-12: ....2.23...............2.27
2010-11: ....2.23...............2.26
2009-10: ....2.23...............2.28

This season is running at 2.25 so far.

[terminator]

update please, and thank you love this snake thing.

[Dan02]

everytime we get back to the line we seem to lose a couple, lets see a nice push to get above the line like before the streak.