Playoff pace and controlling our own destiny - Page 2 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Frank MetaMusil · 01-01-2015, 03:33 AM

Another 2 pts. Just an amazing season. Hudler is getting or dishing some highlight stuff. Best one of Feaster's signings by far. He's a leader.

squiggs96 · 01-02-2015, 11:45 AM

I know Bunk is running the city, so I updated my graph, complete with proper colours and axes labels. I was tempted to use brown for Edmonton, as they stink like poo, but in the end I chose blue. If Calgary wins tonight against the Islanders, they will be ahead of the pace for the first time since after game #30, when they lost to Buffalo on December 11, 2014. The closest Edmonton has been to being above the line, was before the season started.

The highest Calgary has been above the required line was after game #27 (+ 4.383) with the lowest being after game #35 (- 3.985). The closest Edmonton was to the line after the season started was after game #1 (- 1.171) and the furthest was after game #36 (- 21.156). This is as close to advanced statistics that I will ever venture, because to me they are the only ones that really matter.

I've also decided the 96 in my username is the required number of points required to make the playoffs.

Graph as of December 31. Calgary 39 GP, Edmonton 38 GP

Resolute 14 · 01-02-2015, 01:18 PM

The schedule is fairly even for us as well in terms of head to head against the teams that we would be most likely to compete against for a division or wildcard spot:

Calgary v Pacific: Sharks x3 (1H 2A), Kings x3 (1H 2A), Canucks x2 (1H 1A)
Calgary v Central: Jets x2 (1H 1A), Wild x3 (2H 1A), Stars x2 (1H 1A)

Vancouver has a home-friendly schedule by comparison:
Vancouver v Pacific: Flames x2 (1H 1A), Sharks x3 (2H 1A), Kings x3 (1H 2A)
Vancouver v Central: Wild x3 (2H 1A), Jets (2H 1A), Stars x1 (1H 0A)

Vancouver is done with the Oilers, but their 5-0 record puts pressure on us to win our last two. They have three games left against Arizona (2 on the road), while we have only two. But, we've won all three of our games against the Coyotes, while Vancouver has dropped one of their two.

I wont post individual match-ups for the other teams, but against the group of teams named above, games remaining:
Los Angeles: 5 home, 7 away
San Jose: 6 home, 8 away
Winnipeg: 7 home, 7 away
Dallas: 4 home, 6 away
Minnesota: 6 home, 6 away

Those three Central teams are interesting. One has to wonder how long Winnipeg can hold on given their injury situation. Dallas and Minnesota have a pile of games in hand, but they have to win all of them just to pull even. Also, they have the fewest games against this knot of teams. Given they have a lot of games left against tougher opposition like the Hawks, Preds and Blues, there is a chance that the Pacific puts five teams into the playoffs. I never would have predicted that at the start of the season.

For Calgary, we just need to keep on keeping on. Winning a couple games at the Honda Center and/or against Vancouver would help a lot.

MotoRacer · 01-02-2015, 10:18 PM

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

squiggs96 · 01-09-2015, 09:12 AM

After two straight losses, the Flames need 4 straight wins to get the red snake over top of the black snake. It's a great time to get those wins. First up tonight is Florida on their second game of a back to back. Tomorrow is Vancouver, and I always want to beat Vancouver. 3rd is Arizona where Calgary is 3-0 this season and then San Jose. Beating Vancouver and San Jose would really help our chances against teams we are chasing. Beating Florida and Arizona should happen because the Flames are a better team than those two. With road games against LA and Anaheim the following week, Calgary really needs to take the points now while they can.

Snakes at the halfway point of the season:

squiggs96 · 01-09-2015, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MotoRacer

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

Everyone is well aware of this. When Bunk started the thread he clearly stated it was one way to just watch what Calgary is doing and not worry about the other teams. Edmonton is on there because it's funny.

squiggs96 · 01-16-2015, 09:26 AM

Update to the snakes. Calgary needs to have a 0.618 winning percentage in the remaining 38 games to achieve 96 points. Edmonton requires a .905 winning percentage in their remaining 37 games.

heep223 · 01-16-2015, 09:51 AM

So something like 22-13-3?

Looking at our schedule, this is going to be tough.

To begin February we play Winnipeg, San Jose, Pittsburgh, San Jose, LA, Vancouver, Boston, Minnesota, Anaheim, NYR. Then we go on a 7 game Eastern Conference road trip.

I believe! But wow if we manage to make the playoffs that will be the story of the year.

squiggs96 · 01-16-2015, 09:55 AM

I don't want to take away from the original thought of this thread, which is just get above the pace and stop worrying about what other teams do, but it would really help Calgary out if we beat San Jose, LA and Winnipeg. In addition to the games posted by heep, Calgary's next two games are SJ and LA.

Resolute 14 · 01-16-2015, 09:56 AM

The next 12 games will determine our fate.

Seven against teams we are directly battling, three against absolute crap opponents (all at home), and only two tough opponents in Anaheim and Pittsburgh.

With the long, brutal road trip coming up at the end of February we need to take full advantage of these games.

AcGold · 01-17-2015, 01:06 PM

The playoffs hinge on 3 factors. Wideman, Russell and Ortio.

First we need a goalie that only gets beat by nearly unstoppable shots. Ramo and Hiller regularly give up 1 or 2 easy goals a night.

Russell and Wideman need to play the best in their careers. There can't be any slack from these two because the forward core is kind of weak.

Those 3 kill it and we're in. Any one of the 3 doesn't play lights out we don't make it. It's getting beat regularly due to amateur mistakes that keeps us out. The game is so tight now the game hinges on 10 second segments with 2 or 3 mistakes. Take the passer on 2 on 1s, dont get beat 2 on 2, make sure no bad angle shots with no screens ever go in, don't miss hip checks, don't slide across the ice wildly in 2 on 2s (it panics the goalie).

heep223 · 01-17-2015, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcGold

The playoffs hinge on 3 factors. Wideman, Russell and Ortio.

First we need a goalie that only gets beat by nearly unstoppable shots. Ramo and Hiller regularly give up 1 or 2 easy goals a night.

Agree with your post. Except that you will never find a goalie like the one you're describing. Every goalie has bad nights and every goalie lets in a softie every once in a while. I would alter your point to say that we need consistently above average goaltending.

djsFlames · 01-17-2015, 01:58 PM

How about a goalie that can average under 2.30 GA/G and roughly .920% or greater the rest of the way? That's the quality we'll need between the pipes to make it imo.

Stay Golden · 01-17-2015, 02:20 PM

These next 3 games are going to be quite a test.

AcGold · 01-17-2015, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by heep223

Agree with your post. Except that you will never find a goalie like the one you're describing. Every goalie has bad nights and every goalie lets in a softie every once in a while. I would alter your point to say that we need consistently above average goaltending.

Yes of course.

However, we did have a goaltender that would go long stretches with zero soft goals. 20 or 25 games in a row where the only ones that went in were unstoppable. Expecting that from Ortio is unreasonable.

squiggs96 · 01-22-2015, 09:56 AM

The Flames are 2.037 points off the pace as the All Star break. The Oilers are 22.037 points off the pace.

I really hope the red snake stops bumping his head on the black ceiling and finds a way to see what's on the other side.

heep223 · 01-22-2015, 10:02 AM

Win last night and we're on pace pretty much....going to be so interesting watching this team respond down the stretch.

Resolute 14 · 01-22-2015, 10:16 AM

Next three games, all at home, all against terrible hockey teams. If we are going to get above that black line, now is the time.

FWIW though, since we are the final playoff team at this point, the pace is currently 93 points and we are dead even with the line. With everyone's schedules starting to focus more on conference play, there is going to be a lot of cannibalism going on in terms of points. Our failure to take advantage of the East is glaring right now.

squiggs96 · 01-22-2015, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

FWIW though, since we are the final playoff team at this point, the pace is currently 93 points and we are dead even with the line.

This got me thinking what the line would look like with a 93 point pace. We'd be 0.298 behind that, so yes, basically even. It looks nice seeing the red snake spend more time on top. Then I wanted to see what the blue snake would look like on top of a line, so I added a 57 point pace snake. Enjoy.

Enoch Root · 01-22-2015, 04:22 PM

I would argue that while the Flames are in a playoff spot, the relevant pace is the one being set by whoever is in 9th (all the Flames have to do is beat whoever is in 9th). When the Flames are in 9th or worse, then the relevant pace is being set by whoever is in 8th (because that's who you have to catch).

Right now, the Kings are in 9th and on a pace for 90.7 points. Anyone ahead of them is in, so that's the current pace to beat.