Becoming Oilers vs Blues/Kings/Preds in wildcard race

[Barnet Flame]

Originally Posted by dying4acup

If the jets catch the Flames I'll eat my shoe.

Don't be stupid, no you won't.

I'll be eating it for you.

[dying4acup]

Originally Posted by Barnet Flame

Don't be stupid, no you won't.

I'll be eating it for you.

You can add the Canucks to that despite this impressive weekend.

Btw thanks nucks, appreciate you

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Strength of opponent is certainly a way to predict outcomes but it's been shown time and time again over the years, and again over the past couple weeks that at the end of the season, the dynamics of playoffs around the corner and the pressures on teams that need to win the games they should make predicting outcomes using that method unreliable.

There's a mixture of parity and confirmation bias. Any team can beat any team on any given night, but we remember the ones that 'shouldn't' have happened while over looking the greater majority that go the expected way.

Here's the last 3 seasons last 10 games for the bottom five teams:

2015-2016:
Toronto 3-7-0
Edmonton 4-5-1
Vancouver 4-5-1
Columbus 5-5-0
Calgary 4-5-1

2014-2015:
Buffalo 3-6-1
Arizona 3-7-0
Edmonton 4-5-1
Toronto 3-5-2
Carolina 4-5-1
New Jersey 1-6-3 (sixth)

2013-2014:
Buffalo 1-7-2
Florida 3-7-0
Edmonton 4-6-0
Calgary 5-5-0
NY Islanders 6-2-2


Exactly one team finished the season with a better than even record, and the Islanders are no where near a bottom team like Colorado and Arizona are this year.

Of course St .Louis could lose all six games to the Coyotes and Avalanche, it's just a far better chance that the Jets lose to the Sharks, Penguins, Wild and Preds. And the Jets need to gain 4 points on the Blues (dependent on ROW) in two less games to pass them and still have to pass the Kings. Of course always a chance that a team like Nashville, the Ducks, or God-forbid the Flames completely choke. But definitely odds are stacked against the Jets, and it's not like there surging. They've won 5 in their last 10.

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by activeStick

The Blues should have 12 points in the bag against Phoenix and Colorado but they could easily get only 6. Teams with nothing to play for other than being a spoiler are dangerous.

Points in the bag against the Avs, yes. The Coyotes no way, they can play the spoiler roll very well.

[Oling_Roachinen]

And with two straight losses (hopefully soon to be three as their next game is against the Flames) the Jets are all but eliminated from the playoffs.

With a maximum point threshold of 94 points, which would requiring going 14-0-0, the Jets are now given less than 2% chance of making the playoffs by SportClubStats. They don't see a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs unless they can go 11-1-2 for a total of 90 points. With their own poor play and still tough remaining schedule, it would require the Cinderella of all Cinderella runs to make the playoffs.

[Tsawwassen]

Playoff postivity here, the title of this thread needs to be changed to "Becoming Oilers vs Blues/Kings/Preds in wildcard race."

[Tsawwassen]

The title of thread is now accurate, thanks mods.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Originally Posted by Tsawwassen

Playoff postivity here, the title of this thread needs to be changed to "Becoming Oilers vs Blues/Kings/Preds in wildcard race."

Well done!

[foshizzle11]

I think the teams in the playoffs now will stay there. LA and Winnipeg are done, no way LA is going to catch us, the blues, the oilers, the preds. They just don't have it this year.

I hope the first round is the BOA if the oilers do make it. It would be epic and nobody can deny that. I honestly don't think the flames have to worry about the oilers in the first round, we have much more depth at all positions and a capable back up goalie.

The last few weeks will be fun none the less. I would love for the Flames and Kings games to be OT wins for the flames each time and for the kings to beat the oilers every game in regulation and squeeze them out of the playoffs... but that is highly unlikely.

[StrykerSteve]

LA still has three games left vs Edmonton. The season isn't done yet.

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by foshizzle11

I think the teams in the playoffs now will stay there. LA and Winnipeg are done, no way LA is going to catch us, the blues, the oilers, the preds. They just don't have it this year.

I hope the first round is the BOA if the oilers do make it. It would be epic and nobody can deny that. I honestly don't think the flames have to worry about the oilers in the first round, we have much more depth at all positions and a capable back up goalie.

The last few weeks will be fun none the less. I would love for the Flames and Kings games to be OT wins for the flames each time and for the kings to beat the oilers every game in regulation and squeeze them out of the playoffs... but that is highly unlikely.

The Kings still have a realistic chance of getting especially if a team above them falters. I don't think a BOA is going to happen since the Ducks have improved enough that having both Alberta teams pass them is doubtful.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Tsawwassen

The Kings still have a realistic chance of getting especially if a team above them falters. I don't think a BOA is going to happen since the Ducks have improved enough that having both Alberta teams pass them is doubtful.

Yeah, looking like it's gonna be 2 California vs Alberta series'

[flamesforcup]

Wish there was gonna be a BOA so we could shut up those cocky Oilers fans. Ill settle with Anaheim though. We better not get the Sharks.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by flamesforcup

Wish there was gonna be a BOA so we could shut up those cocky Oilers fans. Ill settle with Anaheim though. We better not get the Sharks.

I would rather the Sharks first, Oilers second and then the Ducks.

-Sharks look old and won't take the physicality
-Oilers have one line and bad defense
-Ducks are our biggest challenge

[Vinny01]

I like the Flames chances against the Sharks. We have beaten them in their building and ours. They are an older team that played deep last year. I think they are poised to be knocked out early.

The Ducks seemed to have turned on a switch and they have owned us in the past. We can beat them at the dome half the time but we never win on the road

Oilers are a team I think Calgary can beat but the stakes are so high and losing to them is almost as bad as missing the playoffs altogether

[Split98]

So doing a little bit of guessing... the Blues are going to be a big factor with their schedule...

[the2bears]

Still won't be easy for the Blues to win 10/11 though.

[greentree]

Originally Posted by Split98

So doing a little bit of guessing... the Blues are going to be a big factor with their schedule...

Maybe. But I doubt the Blues go 10-1.
I think Calgary's projected point total is about right at 96.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by the2bears

Still won't be easy for the Blues to win 10/11 though.

Originally Posted by greentree

Maybe. But I doubt the Blues go 10-1.
I think Calgary's projected point total is about right at 96.

I had a really hard time predicting many of the upcoming games as losses, but 10-1 definitely seems unrealistic.

I also updated us to 98. That SJ game will be a cruise game for them unless they are determined to play spoiler.

[Enoch Root]

Trying to predict the outcome of 11 games is sheer folly.

Look at Colorado. They are mind-numbingly terrible. Plus, they have nothing to play for. Pretty easy to predict they will lose every game.

And yet, they are 3-7-0 in their last 10. Still terrible, but a far cry from 0-10-0.

If you look at the last 10 column on NHL.com standings, most teams will have between 9 and 14 points in their last 10 games. There will always be a couple teams on fire, and a couple in the dumpster, but most teams play between .500 hockey and .650 hockey, most of the time.

REGARDLESS OF WHICH TEAMS THEY ARE PLAYING.

This idea that St Louis will win every game because their schedule is easy, and the Flames will lose every game because their schedule is hard, is ridiculously overblown.