Ongoing - Elliott Friedman's 30 Thoughts (Wednesdays)

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The Selke isn't about the best defensive forward anymore. These days it's awarded to the top 30 scorer who's best defensively. A Guy Carbonneau or Dirk Graham would have no chance of winning today.

That's been the case for decades now. Graham last won the Selke in '91, Carbonneau in '92. After that:

1992-93, Doug Gilmour (127 points scored)
1993-94, Sergei Fedorov (120)
1994-95, Ron Francis (59 in 48 games)
1995-96, Fedorov again (107)

Followed by a mixed bag ever since.

The trouble is, there was never really any good way of telling how good an individual skater was defensively. (There still isn't; analytics has a long way to go. Pseudo-possession metrics and shot suppression are barely scratching the surface.) So the media guys, mostly beat writers, who vote on the Selke are generally left picking the most famous guy who seems to be pretty good defensively.

Even Carbonneau won because he was the best-known defensive forward on the best defensive team in the league. That's been a pretty common rationale among the voters over the years.

Right back in the beginning, Bob Gainey won the Selke basically because it was created so he could have an award to win. His reputation preceded the award. He won it four years straight before the writers could think of anybody else to give it to.

[TheCommodoreAfro]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

I believe the time zones are actually somewhat better for Asia (who would be often tuning in during late morning) than it is for places in Europe (who would be waking up in the wee hours of the morning to tune in). In the ATL for the most recent Avalanche game, there was a Chinese national who mentioned watching it in his office at work in the morning.

Yup - this. Weekday morning/early afternoon hockey here in Japan. And Hockey Morning/afternoon on Sunday!

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Johnny Rotten

But then what defenseman do you leave unprotected? Gio? Brodie? Shattenkirk? Hamilton?

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I would leave out Brodie and hope to get lucky that he doesn't get picked up.

Originally Posted by jaginla

lol

Let us lol some more.

[manwiches]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/3...n-uncertainty/

Unfortunately I don't have too much time today to add my thoughts (albeit they're pretty limited anyways. haha)

No Flames notes this week of any particular interest, however some talk about Elliot and Brouwer, and a mention of Bennett as a segue into Lazar

6. Just like with Calgary when Sam Bennett was a healthy scratch, Ottawa got its share of calls when Curtis Lazar sat out. I do think there is interest but I’m not sure the Senators are willing to pull the trigger. Teams will be happy to bet Lazar can rebound with a fresh start but don’t want to pay the price that comes with such a wager.

23. One NHLer on the Blues: players knew when David Backes, Troy Brouwer, Brian Elliott, and Steve Ott all left that it was going to be trouble. “Those guys were the buffers. They could handle Ken Hitchcock and protect the guys who couldn’t.” Hitchcock will challenge you, repeatedly. Those guys could handle it.

League and Random Notes:

7. Finally on the Avalanche, there’s a certain logic that they are one of the teams taking a run at Edmonton’s Brandon Davidson. Davidson, a great story who’s carved out a nice niche, is not someone the Oilers want to trade, but someone they may be forced to move. First, it will be tough to protect him in the expansion draft. Second, he’s going to be due a raise, but so are Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Oilers also want to keep Kris Russell. You can’t keep everyone, so the Oilers are being proactive. Davidson will help someone.

An interesting note about Kris Russell, and how the Oilers wants to keep him. Good pick up for them if the price is right.

28. Word at the CHL Top Prospects’ Game last week was that Regina’s Memorial Cup bid did not go unnoticed. The Saskatchewan capital is in the conversation.

As a resident of Regina now, this makes me happy. I will be buying tickets for sure if they get it. The Pats are unreal this year, and slated to do just as well next.

[Erick Estrada]

Russell will want to get paid. Oilers won't get him on the cheap next contract.

[jeffmacrealtor]

I believe the Flames are in danger of waiting too long to trade Bennett. I would have done it last summer if I was GM.

[ToraToraTora]

Originally Posted by jeffmacrealtor

I believe the Flames are in danger of waiting too long to trade Bennett. I would have done it last summer if I was GM.

You would have traded an upward trending 4th overall pick after he had a rookie season with more points than Sean Monahan and was looking to be a key part of the scoring punch of this team in the long term, and that would fill a long term organizational need?

For what? The exact same thing? I don't think anyone saw Bennett taking this big of a step back.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by jeffmacrealtor

I believe the Flames are in danger of waiting too long to trade Bennett. I would have done it last summer if I was GM.

Maybe they want to keep him so that maybe he becomes the player they believe he can be, just perhaps not at the age of 20?

The Flames really need Bennett to turn out. I think a lot of our success in the future depends on it. Selling him during a season in which he is struggling would be a very poor move from both an asset management and logic perspective.

There are a lot of sophomores struggling this season. I don't think the Red Wings are going to trade Larkin.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by jeffmacrealtor

I believe the Flames are in danger of waiting too long to trade Bennett. I would have done it last summer if I was GM.

Well I'm glad you're not involved in any of the decision making when it comes to the Flames, now get me a large Orange Julius with a raw egg and extra banana, and no tip for you.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by jeffmacrealtor

I believe the Flames are in danger of waiting too long to trade Bennett. I would have done it last summer if I was GM.

20 year old already in his 2nd NHL season while most prospects are still in the AHL or CHL. In your mind I suppose if a prospect isn't lighting up the NHL before he's 20 he's a bust?

[Lil Pedro]

Originally Posted by jeffmacrealtor

I believe the Flames are in danger of waiting too long to trade Bennett. I would have done it last summer if I was GM.

Yes let's trade a 20 year old centre right now; some people's expectations on guys are incredible. Dude hasn't even played 150 NHL games yet.

[Strange Brew]

It is possible to trade a young player without labelling him a bust. It all depends on the return. That said, what the Flames need more of are elite young players so if you trade Bennett, it had better be packaged with something else such that a "more elite" young player is coming back this way. At least IMO.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Russell will want to get paid. Oilers won't get him on the cheap next contract.

I think he's making slightly more then 3 this year and he's playing very well for the Oilers.

Its just another tough decision that the Oilers have to make, but I don't doubt that Russell asks for a raise from Edmonton.

Lets say that he gets a million dollar raise this year, and Kassian gets a million dollar raise this year and Draisaitl I think we can agree is probably going to join the $7 million dollar club or get an 6 million dollar raise. They're probably not going to resign Hendricks, and Ferrence will come off of the books.

So doing some quick math they're going to add 8 and delete about 5. If they trade Davidson that's 1.3 off of the books, but they'll have to replace him right? so I'd call that neutral.

The cap isn't expected to rise much if any so the Oilers who have 5 million in space will probably have 2 million in space next year.

Then the next year is dooms day.

McDavid will probably ask for and get a 11 million dollar raise. Maroon will come up for a new deal and they Oilers will probably have to give him 2 to 3 million more if he keeps producing like this, Darnell Nurse will probably go from his rookie deal to 3 so add 2, Benning will probalbly at least double so add 1.5. There's some other deals coming up that year like Caggulia so lets ad another 2 million for incidental raises.

So add 19.5 to the payroll, however the good news is that Letestu and Fayne will come off the books so that's I think 4.5 so reduce to 15 million.

So unless the Oilers get a break and the cap goes up by 13 million bucks they're going to have to trade at least three high end contracts for no contract returns. So they're going to have to dump Eberle and Nuge (12 million) and Poulliot (4 million) of course in this day and age no team does that they're probably going to have to take back either some form of contract, or eat some amount of their contracts.

Now the biggest problem is McDavid, as much as Oiler fans believe that he's going to take some kind of home town discount, if he continues to be the main reason why the oilers win, and if he continues to produce like he does, and his agent lashes on to the whole, he's worth a billion dollars to the Oilers in terms of sales and merchandise, then expect them to ask for Toew's or Kane like money at $13 million or so, especially if the Oilers want a long term deal that eats free agency.

It could be interesting to watch Edmonton for the next two years, just to see how Chia handles or fumbles this.

Personally to me, Chia better go for it this year, or even next year, because frankly, they'll be heading into another major rebuild after that.

[Weitz]

Captain your math is always so off when calculating the Oilers cap.

[CaptainCrunch]

how do you figure, show me where I'm wrong, don't just say I'm off, that's lame.

And unless NHL Numbers is off and other contract sites are off the Oilers have 5 million this year. If the cap doesn't change next year which is the expectation they'll lose about 3 million in cap space so they'll be at 2 million.

And I doubt the cap goes up massively the year after that when the Oilers have their Armageddon.

But show me where I'm wrong?

Kick my %%%.

You can dispute the salaries, that I've put in place, 12 for McDavid (which I think is low), 7 for draisaitl lets say 3 to 4 for Nurse etc, I don't believe I'm that far off.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

how do you figure, show me where I'm wrong, don't just say I'm off, that's lame.

And unless NHL Numbers is off and other contract sites are off the Oilers have 5 million this year. If the cap doesn't change next year which is the expectation they'll lose about 3 million in cap space so they'll be at 2 million.

And I doubt the cap goes up massively the year after that when the Oilers have their Armageddon.

But show me where I'm wrong?

Kick my %%%.

You can dispute the salaries, that I've put in place, 12 for McDavid (which I think is low), 7 for draisaitl lets say 3 to 4 for Nurse etc, I don't believe I'm that far off.

How does Draisaitl get more than Monahan or anyone else in that group? He doesn't.

Nurse won't get 3-4 unless its long term. I see a 2-3 year bridge for 2-3 million.

Saying 12 for McDavid is low is crazy even on an 8 year term.
6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15.
If you go by those numbers for for RFA/UFA years its still 10.5 AAV.

I am fully confidant that Mcdavid signs for 7 or 8 years. I also think he will into consideration the fact a team needs to be built around him, not take a huge discount or anything but isn't going to hold out for 14 million or something. There are still 4 years of RFA left, that suddenly doesn't go away because its McDavid. Also people who say the NHLPA will be all over him to take as much as possible. Well I think that tune has changed since Escrow is one of the biggest issues in the PA right now and thy more he signs for the more everyone else loses to escrow. Its a zero sum game.

[SuperMatt18]

Not going to get into exact contracts but Oilers best chance to win is in the next 3 year window IMO. They will always have a chance as long as they have McDavid but its not going to get any easier.

Honestly if I was Chiarelli I would be trying to load up at the deadline this year. The West isn't the strongest and they might have a chance.

Only going to get tougher to fill holes over the next two years, and improvement is going to have to come from McDavid, Drai, and Puljujarvi getting better.

17/18
$52M Committed
Key RFA: Draisaitl, Kassian
Key UFA: Russell, Hendricks

18/19
$40M Committed
Key RFA: McDavid, Slepyshev, Caggiula, Davidson, Nurse, Benning
Key UFA: Maroon

Then the next season they have Eberle, Pouliot, and Talbot all coming off the books - and Talbot is going to need a raise and you will have to replace Eberle and Pouliot.

[northcrunk]

Lets be realistic. The Oilers always go above and beyond what everyone else is paying their players and gives them more. Makes other teams spend more on their players. McDavid will be given max $

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Saying 12 for McDavid is low is crazy even on an 8 year term. 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15. If you go by those numbers for for RFA/UFA years its still 10.5 AAV.

...What?

I tend to disagree with CaptainCrunch on just about everything... I say that so you understand what it means for me to say he's absolutely right. If July 1 passes and McDavid's agent doesn't get 30 offer sheets with total dollars exceeding $84M ($10.5M x 8) there should be 30 different angry mobs descending on 30 front offices with torches and pitchforks at the ready.

Here is the number that the Oilers need to exceed... 102.2M. That's NHL max salary x 7 because someone will (or at least should) offer it.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Weitz

How does Draisaitl get more than Monahan or anyone else in that group? He doesn't.

Nurse won't get 3-4 unless its long term. I see a 2-3 year bridge for 2-3 million.

Saying 12 for McDavid is low is crazy even on an 8 year term.
6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15.
If you go by those numbers for for RFA/UFA years its still 10.5 AAV.

I am fully confidant that Mcdavid signs for 7 or 8 years. I also think he will into consideration the fact a team needs to be built around him, not take a huge discount or anything but isn't going to hold out for 14 million or something. There are still 4 years of RFA left, that suddenly doesn't go away because its McDavid.

Leon will probably get a half million more then Monahan, just simply because this season will probably eclipse any of the point totals that Monhahan has had.

He's at 47 points now right, with about 30 games left.

If you think that they're going to get McDavid signed for a long term deal that eats into his UFA years for 10.5 I think your wrong. His valuation in terms of his value to the Oilers and his production and him literally carry that team puts him in a firm drivers seat. I'm not expecting him to get a Kane or Toews valuation, but that's going to probably be where his agent starts, and if the Oilers start at 10 then expect to meet in the middle at 12.

We're dealing with a generational player here, one who's probably going to add huge dollars to the Oilers and the NHL's bottom line, when you put that on one side of the balance sheet, and then on the other the whole, oh golly gee batman I'll take less to build the team, that doesn't mean that he's taking a million or two million less, it means that maybe he takes a couple of hundred thousand less. Also McDavid will be under tremendous pressure by the PA and his agent will be under pressure by the PA to be the poster boy of setting the next generation of contract values.


I've said in my post that Nurse will probably get 3 million, which we see a lot of third pairing defense men get, but I agree if he signs longer term its 4 million. 2 million isn't going to happen unless its a 1 year deal.


but you and I are quibbling over 1 or 2 million over what could be a 20+ million dollar jump in payroll.