Ongoing - Elliott Friedman's 30 Thoughts (Wednesdays)

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

It's pretty rare for top NHL players to ask for the largest salary they can get.

If it were common there'd be a bunch of guys at the max and way less Troy Brouwers making $4+.

In general real difference makers in the NHL are pretty underpaid relative to their contributions.

It's very rare for a generational talent to be on the market. 30 teams will be lining up with offersheets. There will be plenty with max money for minimum years to get him to free agency. So $14-15M for five years. All he has to do is sign one offer for that and the he is guaranteed being out of Edmonton in five years. The control is then his.

[Insufficient Funds]

I could swear this was a 30 thoughts thread not a McJuicebox thread...I'm new so probably wrong. Carry on!

[Racki]

I wish McDavid's agent was Scott Boras. No deals from that guy.

I'll tell what though, as much as it pains me to admit. The Leafs are going to be very dangerous with that McDavid/Matthews 1-2 punch down the middle in 2022-23

[jayswin]

McDavid was never the problem, every team in the league would take that "problem" no questions asked. Also, RNH and Eberle could be removed from that line-up without equal money coming back, imo.

Their real screw up was Lucic, that was an absurd signing for a team with a generational talent and a 3rd overall Centre coming up for $10mil+ and $6mil+ contracts. Just dumb, dumb, dumb. They should have been studying the Penguins and Blackhawks of the last decade and understanding that's the type of team structure that fell into their lap and to build accordingly, dummy.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Insufficient Funds

I could swear this was a 30 thoughts thread not a McJuicebox thread...I'm new so probably wrong. Carry on!

First of all, you clearly have insufficient funds so theres that.

Secondly, you have to understand that Connor McDavid is the single greatest thing to happen to hockey ever of all time and as such all conversation of hockey will eventually be captured by his natural gravitational pull.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Racki

I wish McDavid's agent was Scott Boras. No deals from that guy.

I'll tell what though, as much as it pains me to admit. The Leafs are going to be very dangerous with that McDavid/Matthews 1-2 punch down the middle in 2022-23

Back when the Leafs had Sundin, somebody coined the term ‘helicopter offence’… because the team had no wings. If they pay McDavid $14m or so to play in Toronto, and pay Matthews a similar amount, they won't be able to afford top players at any other position. I wouldn't worry about that one at all.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Considering most pundits think he will be signed by the end of July 2017 there will be zero offer sheets. Not to mention.. Are there any teams that can (and are willing) to add that sort of salary straight up?

Do you have a source on this punditry? Haven't heard a single person say they think it will get done a year in advance and don't see why it would.

The difference in this negotiation, maybe different from any other RFA negotiation to ever take place, is that McDavid decides what his contract looks like, top to bottom, no questions asked. There are not two sides here. So if McDavid wants 8x12, then he gets it. If he wants minimum term x maximum $, he gets it.

So what does he (and his team of people telling him what's good) want? I don't know, I have my suspicions, but I don't know. Do you know? Do the pundits know?

My suspicions say there's not a lot of loyalty here yet so why leave money on the table? The obvious answer is to build a winner, but really what leaving money on the table means is Chia has an easier time dealing with all the dead money on the team. If I'm Connor and agent, and I see the 20 odd million poorly spent dollars, I have serious reservations on essentially paying an Eberle out of my own salary.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Even at 14 per year, a guy like McDavid would still be a bargain.

What?!

No. $14 m would be "market value" which is decidedly NOT the same thing as a "bargain." When you pay full price for something, that never constitutes a bargain.

[Strange Brew]

The salary cap artificially limits the top salary one player can receive, so $14 million may in fact be a bargain if McDavid and 20 AHLers can win you a Stanley Cup.

Obviously that seems unlikely but market value for elite talent may be higher than the max allowable under the cap.

[JiriHrdina]

Having the best player is always better than not having the best player.
But it creates challenges in terms of how to surround that player with the right cast of quality pieces to allow you to compete.
The more the top dawg makes, the more challenging that becomes.
The Hawks have contended with this for years, but their shrewd drafting ability to sign guys like Panarin (who every NHL team wanted) has allowed them to turn the high prices parts of their team over, without it hurting their ability to contend. The Oilers have not exhibited the ability to find late draft gems, nor will they ever be a destination for top free agents.
So it is more challenging for them.
They should do all they can to prevent McD from becoming an RFA because that point I fully anticipate a big market will make a very silly offer that the Oilers will be forced to match – making all of this even more challenging.
Their best opportunity to get that done, is to go on a run this year. Make him feel like he’s part of something, so he overlooks the fact he has to live in an armpit of a city.
And then throw whatever big bucket of money you think is right at him, because no matter how big that bucket is, chances are it will be even bigger if you let other teams have a crack.

[Locke]

No, no, no!

I'm told that McDavid is the best player to ever tie his skates.

He should be paid like it.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

As stated several times in numerous places around here, McDavid and Draisaitl contracts will not hurt the Oilers. They have plenty of those that still might/will though.
There will be no offer sheets. McDavid will be extended as soon as is possible, without any real negotiating. They will hand him the contract to fill in a number. The term will be of greatest interest. Does McDavid give them max term at reduced rate (meaning 10M+), or does he put a time limit to build a winner (at that reduced salary)? Like to the year before his UFA eligibility.

I would bet Mcdavid will not sign an 8 year deal. If him and his agent have any sense he will sign 5-6-6. He has all the power in the negotiation. No chance he sign 8 years. The only debate will be the cap hit. No chance he commits 8 years even if it is 13+

He can always resign as an UFA with the Oil if he chooses but why not give himself all the options in the league as soon as possible when buying UFA years does not apply to him

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Considering most pundits think he will be signed by the end of July 2017 there will be zero offer sheets. Not to mention.. Are there any teams that can (and are willing) to add that sort of salary straight up?

I still think his AAV is between 10 and 12 on an 8 year deal. With an outside shot at 12.125 per which is 97 million/8 years because of the weird number thing we see in the NHL these days.

I don't think I've heard any pundits saying that at all, unless its Staples but that was a terrible article and it was clear that he was typing with one hand.

I'm going to have to ask for a citation on most pundits.

Bobby Orr is probably one of the best agents out there and he makes sure his clients are taken care of. He's also a NHLPA hawk so I doubt that he's going to make it easy on the Oilers. Plus McDavid is a huge client for him, he's going to make sure that he gets the best deal for him so expect a grinding negotiation.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by New Era

It's very rare for a generational talent to be on the market. 30 teams will be lining up with offersheets. There will be plenty with max money for minimum years to get him to free agency. So $14-15M for five years. All he has to do is sign one offer for that and the he is guaranteed being out of Edmonton in five years. The control is then his.

The control is always with the star player barring lockout time.

I mean if McDavid wants to screw over the Oilers there isn't anything stopping him.

I think it's unlikely for him to do so based on the collective actions of star players in the NHL.

If you think Connor Mcdavid will try to put the screws to the Oilers it's because you are probably just projecting your feelings towards the Oilers onto the situation.

The likelihood of McDavid's contract negotiations going down like you hope isn't very high IMO.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

The salary cap artificially limits the top salary one player can receive, so $14 million may in fact be a bargain if McDavid and 20 AHLers can win you a Stanley Cup.

Obviously that seems unlikely but market value for elite talent may be higher than the max allowable under the cap.

How can market value exceed the maximum allowable cost within a closed market? The salary cap is a market regulator but it is not something that we can summarily ignore. How would we even go about determining what market value is under the condition that the salary cap sets an artificial limit?

[getbak]

I looked this up a couple of months ago. There just aren't that many comparables when we talk about players who won the Art Ross Trophy during their entry-level contracts in the cap era. If McDavid doesn't win the Art Ross this year, he'll likely be a close second.


The only players to win the Art Ross Trophy while still on their ELCs are Crosby, Ovechkin, and Malkin. Of those, only Crosby had won prior to signing his second contract. Crosby and Malkin both signed their second contracts during the summer following their second seasons (with a full season remaining on their ELCs). Ovechkin signed his partway through his third season (when he was on-pace to win the Art Ross).


Since they all signed the season before the contracts came into effect, if you're looking at the percentage of the cap, you have to look at what the cap was when they signed, not what it was when the contract actually came into effect.

• Sidney Crosby signed his second contract on July 7, 2007, a month before his 20th birthday. This was after he won the Art Ross and Hart Trophies in his second season. He signed for a cap hit of $8.7 million per year when the salary cap was $50.3 million. That was 17.3% of the cap.
  
  
  
• Alex Ovechkin signed his second contract on January 10, 2008, halfway through his third pro season. He was 22. That was the season where he won his first Art Ross and Hart Trophies. He signed for a cap hit a little over $9.5 million when the salary cap was $50.3 million. That was 19.0% of the cap.
  
  
  
• Evgeni Malkin signed his second contract on July 2, 2008, less than a month shy of his 22nd birthday, after his second pro season. He finished second to Ovechkin for the Art Ross the previous season, and won the Art Ross and Conn Smythe Trophies the following year. He signed for a cap hit of $8.7 million when the cap was $56.7 million. That was 15.3% of the cap.

There's a good chance Malkin had to deal with a team cap imposed by Crosby's existing cap hit. If he had put up the same performance on a different team, he likely would have made even more than he did. Crosby also might have been able to squeeze out a little bit more if it wasn't for his weird "87" fetish.

So far, there's nothing to indicate McDavid has a similar weird obsession with his number. If the cap doesn't go up for next season, a contract with the same percentage of the cap as Crosby's will give McDavid a $12.63M cap hit.

[Samonadreau]

^ sounds about right. McDavid will come in at 14, Oilers will say you gotta do something in good faith here and they will settle on around 12.5 which also is a nice round 100M over 8 years.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

How can market value exceed the maximum allowable cost within a closed market? The salary cap is a market regulator but it is not something that we can summarily ignore. How would we even go about determining what market value is under the condition that the salary cap sets an artificial limit?

It's not the salary cap, but the maximum that one player is allowed to make. Absent that, a top player could well be worth a greater share of a team's cap.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

The control is always with the star player barring lockout time.

I mean if McDavid wants to screw over the Oilers there isn't anything stopping him.

I think it's unlikely for him to do so based on the collective actions of star players in the NHL.

If you think Connor Mcdavid will try to put the screws to the Oilers it's because you are probably just projecting your feelings towards the Oilers onto the situation.

The likelihood of McDavid's contract negotiations going down like you hope isn't very high IMO.

You're a fool if you believe that. If McDavid's camp isn't doing everything they can to get to UFA status as soon as possible they are doing the player a disservice. McDavid is going to be a max salary player. Accept it, and prepare for it. That means the best strategy is to wait for his contract to expire, take the max for the minimum length, then hit UFA status, cashing in then with an even bigger number. That's just the way a smart agency would handle the situation. It has nothing to do with the Oilers, and everything to do with the player. Frankly, the Oilers are irrelevant. He could be playing for the Flames and the I would say the scenario plays out the exact same way.

[Eric Vail]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

How can market value exceed the maximum allowable cost within a closed market? The salary cap is a market regulator but it is not something that we can summarily ignore. How would we even go about determining what market value is under the condition that the salary cap sets an artificial limit?

Before there was a cap, and the market set players salaries,

Bobby Holik made $9.6 million in 2002-3. Ave payroll was $42 million.
All the top players were making $11 million prior to the 2004 lockout when the average payroll was $44 million.