2016-17 Toronto Raptors and General NBA Thread

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

I'm curious if you think this team as constructed has the ability to 'get to the next level'? Personally I think they are what they are, and are soon to be on the down swing with teams like Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Miami quickly closing the gap.

Re-signing Lowry/Ibaka only delays the inevitable, and you're looking at 2-3 years more of playoff basketball before they plummet down the Eastern standings IMO. Playoff basketball, what you see is what you get. They'd be competitive with most teams besides Cleveland, though I fear Boston may soon be in that unbeatable category after they add to their team with the upcoming lottery pick.

The Raps days of being an upper echelon team in the East may be done as of next year...so I guess I'm saying, I think a 'rebuild' coach like Stackhouse wouldn't be such a bad thing, since the organization should consider going that route IMO in the near future.

I've always held that in the NBA the best most teams can hope for is a puncher's chance. You hope that when you're facing off against those top teams in the playoffs, their shot isn't falling or they get hobbled and you play your best and you pull off the upset. That's realistically the ceiling of this Raptors team, and the ceiling for most teams in the league... even the promising young ones. I never believed they could beat Cleveland when Cleveland is rolling, but I did think getting Ibaka improved their odds of taking advantage of a non-peak Cavs team; I still think that. I'm okay with holding on to the core another year for exactly that: another puncher's chance. But I think they can improve that chance a bit more with a different coaching perspective.

Even winning a championship last year, Cleveland bled money because they were so deep in the tax, and that was before the repeater rate kicks in for them this year. Even retaining role-players like Korver will cost them $50 million; the current core there may only last another year or two. I'm not scared of Boston just yet. Their best players are all PGs. The top players in the upcoming draft are PGs. Horford and spare parts doesn't make them elite no matter what guards they have. At some point it's going to come down to them making a good trade, and until then their ceiling is no different from the Raptors. Milwaukee, yeah they scare me a couple years down the road, but they may have growing pains trying to get Parker playing the style the rest of the team needs him to play; they'll get there at some point though. There may still be a window between Cleveland beginning to step back and other teams stepping up, where maybe your best is enough to get you to the finals.

But the main reason you resign Lowry/Ibaka, if you can, is asset protection. Yeah, there's a price at which you walk away, but it shouldn't be the plan for the offseason, because whatever cap space you get isn't going to be enough to sign even one max FA to replace them (unless you're somehow also able to unload Carroll or Joseph or JV without taking salary back). It's going to be difficult to sign any impact FA for less than $20 million this summer.
Neither Lowry or Ibaka are going to drop in value in a hurry between this summer and next, and losing your top big free agents for nothing is a killer under the current CBA. Value for DeRozan begins to drop as well as soon as you signal to the league that a full rebuild is on. Even in a worst-case scenario, you're better to hold onto those guys and flip them before the next trade deadline... See how Ujiri managed Nene in Denver. Sign Lowry this summer, maybe in 8 months he's worth a lot as a mentor on a rebuilding team (Philly). Maybe a contender needs rim protection and you make Ibaka available. Maybe DeRozan nets you a huge return. Those are all better moves than intending to let Ibaka and Lowry walk this summer. You want to blow up the team and do a full rebuild? Retaining contracts, trading them for expirings and draft-picks and prospects, that's going to get you rebuilding far better and stronger than just letting your useful pieces walk.

I'm not arguing that a rebuild may be in the near future. I just wouldn't go all-in on that approach this offseason; I'd keep both options open a little longer, but be flexible and prepared for if the trade offers are there that could really fast-track a rebuild.

[kmart]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I've always held that in the NBA the best most teams can hope for is a puncher's chance. You hope that when you're facing off against those top teams in the playoffs, their shot isn't falling or they get hobbled and you play your best and you pull off the upset. That's realistically the ceiling of this Raptors team, and the ceiling for most teams in the league... even the promising young ones. I never believed they could beat Cleveland when Cleveland is rolling, but I did think getting Ibaka improved their odds of taking advantage of a non-peak Cavs team; I still think that. I'm okay with holding on to the core another year for exactly that: another puncher's chance. But I think they can improve that chance a bit more with a different coaching perspective.

Even winning a championship last year, Cleveland bled money because they were so deep in the tax, and that was before the repeater rate kicks in for them this year. Even retaining role-players like Korver will cost them $50 million; the current core there may only last another year or two. I'm not scared of Boston just yet. Their best players are all PGs. The top players in the upcoming draft are PGs. Horford and spare parts doesn't make them elite no matter what guards they have. At some point it's going to come down to them making a good trade, and until then their ceiling is no different from the Raptors. Milwaukee, yeah they scare me a couple years down the road, but they may have growing pains trying to get Parker playing the style the rest of the team needs him to play; they'll get there at some point though. There may still be a window between Cleveland beginning to step back and other teams stepping up, where maybe your best is enough to get you to the finals.

But the main reason you resign Lowry/Ibaka, if you can, is asset protection. Yeah, there's a price at which you walk away, but it shouldn't be the plan for the offseason, because whatever cap space you get isn't going to be enough to sign even one max FA to replace them (unless you're somehow also able to unload Carroll or Joseph or JV without taking salary back). It's going to be difficult to sign any impact FA for less than $20 million this summer.
Neither Lowry or Ibaka are going to drop in value in a hurry between this summer and next, and losing your top big free agents for nothing is a killer under the current CBA. Value for DeRozan begins to drop as well as soon as you signal to the league that a full rebuild is on. Even in a worst-case scenario, you're better to hold onto those guys and flip them before the next trade deadline... See how Ujiri managed Nene in Denver. Sign Lowry this summer, maybe in 8 months he's worth a lot as a mentor on a rebuilding team (Philly). Maybe a contender needs rim protection and you make Ibaka available. Maybe DeRozan nets you a huge return. Those are all better moves than intending to let Ibaka and Lowry walk this summer. You want to blow up the team and do a full rebuild? Retaining contracts, trading them for expirings and draft-picks and prospects, that's going to get you rebuilding far better and stronger than just letting your useful pieces walk.

I'm not arguing that a rebuild may be in the near future. I just wouldn't go all-in on that approach this offseason; I'd keep both options open a little longer, but be flexible and prepared for if the trade offers are there that could really fast-track a rebuild.

Agreed, you can't just let everyone walk and tank. There are no guarantees that a 2-5 overall pick in the NBA turns out to be an all-star. It is clear that this team isn't good enough to make it to the finals, but you can't just let your all-stars walk away. For someone with Ujiri's trading track record you would trust that he would maximize the asset including Lowry and Derozan.

As far as the coaching goes, Casey has been atrocious in his 6 years with the Raptors. Most coaches with his tenure have at very least developed a system they can survive offensively with good ball movement and continuity. Casey hasn't gotten any better moving the ball on offence. His offence has been very easy to hard, and relies heavily on DeMar or Kyle making tough shots. The offensive struggling shows in this playoffs, as Cleveland is playing Lebron at free safety and he can navigate anywhere on the court because there is no ball movement. It is time for Casey to go.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I get the asset management approach, but with Lowry especially they have to tread extremely carefully. If they sign him to anywhere close to the max he's basically untradeable at that point, because the market for a PG on the wrong side of 30 who needs to dominate the ball and is making close to $40 million a season is non-existent. The last few drafts have been loaded with PGs too (top 3 this year could all be PGs), so the market for any Lowry trade is very low when factoring contract and age. I think to trade him down the road probably costs you assets for someone to eat the contract. I think if anything you look for a sign and trade with someone now, but even that market isn't going to be great. Detroit or Indiana maybe? Clippers if they lose CP3? Not a ton of options out there.

Ibaka is a bit more palatable to re-sign as an asset because there is more value in the type of player he is, but if it costs you the max then again it makes it much harder to move him later on. So there's gotta be smart management to not just view them as potential tradeable assets, but also as potential anchors that limit your long term ability to compete, which should probably be the priority right now. The next 2-3 years are basically pointless for contending in the NBA, the Warriors and maybe Spurs (if they land CP3) are the only teams who will be winning NBA titles (unless we see LeBron bolt somewhere). Now is the time to make a transition, if done right the Raps could be contenders again in 3 years. Obvious understatement, but this will be the most important offseason in team history.

[RichKlit]

Do not re-sign Lowry. I base this on nothing more than age, probable ridiculous salary and I just don't like him.

[St. Pats]

A smart GM would realize that this team has no way to move up into Cavs territory. Start the rebuild. Sign and trade Lowry for starters. Kick Casey out of the building today. Give the job to a coach who isn't an old fossil and can put out a system designed for the NBA of today / not a decade ago. Move on from a few players, add a couple of younger ones and start moving towards the future.

Let it be known that DD can be had for a windfall.

Do it smartly but get started now.

[Da_Chief]

Sign and trade Lowry.
Dump Carroll.
Trade DeRozen.
Trade JV.
Fire Casey.
Don't bother signing Ibaka or Tucker.

Hire Becky Hammon as the coach.
Start the re-build. Next few years will be tough, Id rather watch young energetic guys then the current group getting destroyed in the playoffs.

[Sainters7]

Kyle Lowry to opt out of contract, explore free agency.

https://www.thescore.com/news/1297192

[nemanja2306]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

Kyle Lowry to opt out of contract, explore free agency.

https://www.thescore.com/news/1297192

Is he really asking for 200M over 5 years? That is insane.

I wonder if Toronto could get Jokic from Denver. He would help this rebuild/retool.

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by nemanja2306

I wonder if Toronto could get Jokic from Denver. He would help this rebuild/retool.

they aren't going to get someone who probably has a top 5 trade value in the NBA at this point

[nemanja2306]

Originally Posted by d_phaneuf

they aren't going to get someone who probably has a top 5 trade value in the NBA at this point

I don't know. It doesn't seem to me like Denver is a well run organization.

They gave away Nurkic away to a team they were battling with for a playoff spot.

[Imported_Aussie]

Originally Posted by nemanja2306

I don't know. It doesn't seem to me like Denver is a well run organization.

They gave away Nurkic away to a team they were battling with for a playoff spot.

They moved on from Nurkic because he didn't fit on the court with Jokic and they wanted to find a guy to fit alongside him. Nurkic wanted out as well, and was asking for a trade. He was clearly the second choice behind Jokic.
Plumlee didn't fit Portland long term with all the crazy money they have outlayed and him being an RFA. Nurkic gives them one more year cost controlled, then he is either traded away or they have to move a lot of other pieces. Denver has cap space coming out the wazoo, but have a hard time signing free agents

That deal was two guys who didn't fit on their teams but had value to the other party

[Senator Clay Davis]

Jokic is top 3 untradeable with Giannis and KAT, and I don't even think I'm overrating him, he is a guy you build your team around, hence the Nurkic trade. What was stunning was that it took the Nuggets 20+ games this year to realize they had a special player in Jokic, even after his strong finish last year. Nurkic should have been dealt last offseason.

As far as Lowry getting $200 million, only the Raps can give him that, and I seriously doubt they will. I like the report about how he thinks his best chance to win a ring is to go out West, because unless he's joining the Warriors or Spurs then it's still much easier to come out of the East, where there's only one tough team. In the West you can play .600 ball for six straight years and not even make a conference finals (hi Clippers).

Here is the lineup I'd like to see for opening night next year. Whether it happens or not, we'll see....

PG: Delon, VanVleet
SG: DeMar, Powell
SF: Bruno (gotta see what he can do at some point, why not now?), new draft pick who can ideally shoot the three at a high level
PF: Siakim, PP
C: JV, Bebe

...I mostly want this because if Lowry isn't back, I'd like to at least see what JV can do as the true #2 before he's dealt. Or if the long term goal is rebuild, build him up first before dealing him.

[OzSome]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

Kyle Lowry to opt out of contract, explore free agency.

https://www.thescore.com/news/1297192

Damage good. The guy been injured every season. He is a good point guard but he's a bit of a whiner. I guess it is time to trade him in and get someone younger who can play. Another guy that I don't mind leaving is JV. There are times he plays like an itty-bitty game, the same way as his commercial.

[killer_carlson]

Ujiri has to realize this roster has hit its ceiling, or at least has done so with this coach.

Let Lowry walk. Have a nice day, thanks for the great seasons.

Same message to Casey. Thanks for the results. Wish you the best.

Put Stackhouse in charge.

[d_phaneuf]

Lowry to the spurs makes a ton of sense

[Regorium]

The Raps won't even have a "puncher's chance" as long as Demar Derozan is the star player on this team.

They had a perfect opportunity to get rid of him last year, and they failed. I actually don't see a proper path forward for the Raps unless they manage to unload Derozan to some unsuspecting team.

[Cheese]

we all know they will not change the core of the team. In the end its about playoff money and this team still gets two rounds minimum.
Ujiri will tinker around the edges and sign Lowry. Hope Im wrong...I do like what Ive seen of FVV.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Looks like Casey will be gone. Ujiri just said the Raptors need to fundamentally change the way they play the game and need a culture shift.

http://www.tsn.ca/ujiri-raptors-need...reset-1.746784

[calculoso]

To make hockey comparisons...

Casey = Bob Hartley = "has taken this team as far as I feel he can take it."
Derozan = Phil Kessel = Not good in the spotlight (on Leafs) but good as second/third fiddle (on Pens)

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Ujiri has to realize this roster has hit its ceiling, or at least has done so with this coach.

Let Lowry walk. Have a nice day, thanks for the great seasons.

Same message to Casey. Thanks for the results. Wish you the best.

Put Stackhouse in charge.

Completely agree with this assessment. I don't see this team going any further with Casey coaching it.

I know there are a lot of mixed feelings on JV, but I think this guy still has a lot to offer. I don't think Casey knows how to handle him (or coach offense in general) and we see that he can really score when he gets going. Not sure if he will ever develop into a dominating defender, but as long as he gets to the point where he is passable and watching some match ups, you can get by with that. The guy has the talent to average 20 per game in this league.