[CP Story] Cracking the Window (Hamonic Trade)

[Bingo]

Was a fun one to write looking forward to comments

http://www.calgarypuck.com/2017/06/c...to-contending/

Recent draft success has given Treliving the ability to swing for the fences

[Benched]

nm

[Bingo]

exactly the type of feedback I was looking for!

[StrykerSteve]

One of your better articles, well done.

[Rick M.]

Lots of food for thought here. I'll be rereading this piece more than once. I liked the section evaluating the worth of draft picks quite a bit.

[timbit]

Excellent insight.

[IamNotKenKing]

Nice work. Well put together.

[Bill Bumface]

As a fan scarred for years of overvaluing our own prospects (especially during the Feaster era) I get pretty nervous about all the guys that "should" make the jump to the NHL fizzling, and I basically expect all of our goaltending prospects to fail spectacularly due to PTSD in that department.

It makes me pretty nervous about the whole idea of saying now is the time. Hopefully Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett and Tkatchuk all make very positive strides next year, and a return to form by Brodie along with Giordano at least not dropping off anymore, then this will all look like genius master planning. Lots of "ifs" though. Scary and exciting.

[stamps]

Great write up , positive ... I like it !!

[Textcritic]

Good article, Bingo. Thanks. A few things:

1) Reading again about how the Flames delayed the rebuild through the latter part of the last decade got me to thinking about what the team might have looked like had they pulled the trigger in 2009. They would have been rebuilding in the same period as Edmonton v. 2.0, and drafting in the top-end for players like Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, Ryan Nugget Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog, Nail Yakupov, Ryan Murray, Nate MacKinnon and Seth Jones. Hindsight is 20/20, and the Oilers' incompetence for so long dramatically skews the results, but I have to say that with how the drafts in 2010–12 turned out I am not terribly disappointed about the delay in retrospect.

2) Elliott Friedman said on the FAN 960 this AM that he will be doing some legwork to discover the currency of draft picks in today's NHL. I think your valuation makes very good sense, but I am also interested to hear his take on this in the near future.

3) I completely agree about how you have defined the cycles of NHL teams. One of the things that I find irritating is the insistence of so many fans that a team must have their cake and eat it too; in other words, teams must build and continue to improve to win a championship while simultaneously perpetually increase their draft stock. It's completely unrealistic. I like Treliving's approach which seems to indicate that he will focus in the draft on smaller windows: two or three drafts with an overabundance of picks; two or three drafts where those picks are currency.

[Jiggy_12]

And yet again, the most well written, objective, summarized article on anything Flames comes from D'arcy!

Well done and thanks.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Good article, Bingo. Thanks. A few things:

1) Reading again about how the Flames delayed the rebuild through the latter part of the last decade got me to thinking about what the team might have looked like had they pulled the trigger in 2009. They would have been rebuilding in the same period as Edmonton v. 2.0, and drafting in the top-end for players like Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, Ryan Nugget Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog, Nail Yakupov, Ryan Murray, Nate MacKinnon and Seth Jones. Hindsight is 20/20, and the Oilers' incompetence for so long dramatically skews the results, but I have to say that with how the drafts in 2010–12 turned out I am not terribly disappointed about the delay in retrospect.

Like many "can't go back and see what would have happened" human experiments I sure wonder if some of those Oiler picks showed up in better dressing rooms how they would have turned out.

I think Hall and Eberle traded for less than their production value speaks to that.

A view of "damaged".

[timbit]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Like many "can't go back and see what would have happened" human experiments I sure wonder if some of those Oiler picks showed up in better dressing rooms how they would have turned out.

I think Hall and Eberle traded for less than their production value speaks to that.

A view of "damaged".

Correct. Development is as important as drafting.

[Blankcanvas]

Nice article - interesting and informative. I particularly liked the part about the % chance of landing an impact player in the draft.

Made me stop and consider just how much luck is involved in the sport generally. Raises the question of how much is down to luck -vs- good judgement and decision making.

[Vulcan]

The Flames ownership group underestimated the Calgary market 5-10 years ago when they clung to a failing core and refused to push the team into a rebuild. Because of that the team floundered for a half dozen years on the outside looking in, but not high enough in the draft to add key pieces to turn things around.
In 2013 that plan finally fell by the way side, and low and behold the city embraced it and kept the building full. A spunky young team that cared was tonic for a jaded market sick of seeing the same old act.

-

Getting the team to a rebuild being the only option left, is one thing I'll give Feaster credit for.

[Benched]

Originally Posted by Bingo

exactly the type of feedback I was looking for!

Sorry, thought I saw a typo and was coming to post it, and then I realized I was mistaken. Didn't come back to the thread after I finished the article.


Gentle pushback against the value of draft picks. Nothing you said I disagree with. But I'm not the most knowledgeable or vocal fan/poster here. You hardly need to worry what I think

[FlamesFanFromBC]

Would it be correct to say with the three draft picks they have a 34% (basically 1 in 3) chance to pick an impact player over next 3 years (20+7+7)?

[Beninho]

Totally agree with your comments about teams recognizing a window and making the necessary moves to get players who can produce with the current group now. Flames have had a pretty quick rebuild compared to others which would lead some to think that this type of move came too early. What I would say to that is the team is flush with young NHL talent. The addition of Janko and possibly Anderson next year makes this team even that much younger while also adding a blue chip D prospect in Valimaki. What I believe the flames see is a team with more than enough talented young players which allows them to trade their draft picks in the next couple seasons for a player that can make a massive difference now. I've noticed some people saying the Flames don't have a strong forward prospect pool, but that's because all the guys the Flames have picked have stepped into the NHL right away. This team is still soo young and with Gio turning 34 and Brodie just entering his prime years this seems like a perfect time to go all in.

Picking Valimaki should really help extend this window as Gio starts to decline. The pick and move for Hamonic were obviously very calculated moves and I have full trust in Tre that they were the right ones. Wouldn't be surprised if this team continues to trade picks, especially if Hanonic elevates this team to another level. Flames seem to be at the forefront of understanding the value of a pick and the value of an actual NHL player.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by timbit

Correct. Development is as important as drafting.

It is not just that the Oilers spoiled all their players, though. I look through those drafts and sure, there are some really good NHL players—as there are in every draft. But from 2010–12 I don't see an abundance of players that get me excited like I do in 2013–16.

[Vulcan]

I think draft picks also have varying value as it gets closer to draft day. The best time to trade them away is on or just before draft day. No one wants to show up with only three picks in their pocket.

This is starting to remind me of Darryl's time of dealing with the difference being we do have the solid foundation instead of chasing our tails with Darryl.