You are cool on adding a 6'4 goal scorer? What would you prefer out of the draft? What do you see our needs as? Seems to me that after adding a goalie, size on the wing is our biggest need.
Cooler then the players around him I guess I needed to add. I'd love to add him obviously but prefer Puljujärvi or Dubois.
Cooler then the players around him I guess I needed to add. I'd love to add him obviously but prefer Puljujärvi or Dubois.
Agreed. The Flames need to add core players who are tough to play against. Who can match up without the puck against the elite players on other teams. They need a Hossa, Kopitar, or Backstrom more than a pure sniper.
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Nylander is very thin. Looks like sick skill but maybe translates better to the eastern conference style of play given his frame.
Chychrun comparable to Bogosian? If that's the case, no thanks. Bogosian never lived up to his draft ranking and if Chychrun has a similar trajectory I think we look elsewhere. I'd take another Brodie in Juolevi if that's the case.
That being said, Buttons comparables seem to be a stretch in some cases. I can't see Nylander with the grit Pavelski brings and Dubois seems to have a much more physical edge than steen has. I know not an exact science but you'd think he'd be able to come up with a better measuring stick.
I'd be very happy with Dubois if we miss out on a top 3 pick. I would love to have another big, skilled centreman that plays a 200 foot game. Drafting Dubois would allow us to move Bennett to the wing. It's not a criticism of Bennett to say that I like him better on the wing. Iginla, Ovechkin, Kane, Tarasenko...these guys all have a huge impact playing on the wing. Bennett has a natural ability to score and I think that could be better utilized playing left wing, especially with a big, talented centre like Dubois.
Cooler then the players around him I guess I needed to add. I'd love to add him obviously but prefer Puljujärvi or Dubois.
Interesting. They are all big, strong, offensive wingers and Laine has the highest upside IMO so I don't understand why Jesse and Dubois would be preferable. I think Laine is potentially on a different tier of talent. Can you explain your reasoning a little more? So far you've said you don't think goalscoring is a need.
Says it's 2004 and we don't need goalscoring. Do we pass on Ovechkin to take Andrew Ladd or Blake Wheeler? Although I don't think the drop off from Laine to Dubois/Puljujarvi is exactly comparable I do think Ovechkin/Malkin were on a different tier from the rest of that draft and if you're drafting top two you take one of them. This year is similar in that IMO you're taking Matthews/Laine in the top two regardless of what your needs are because they potential franchise players. Dubois/Puljujarvi are probably a touch more highly thought of than Ladd/Wheeler so the comparison isn't exact but I do think it illustrates the tiers well.
Here's how I view the tiers at the moment.
Tier 1: Matthews/Laine
Tier 2: Puljujarvi
Tier 3: Tkachuk, Dubois, Chychrun
I'm going to prefer the tier 1 players regardless of what our needs are since they have the potential to be the biggest stars. Am I misunderstanding your point?
Nylander is very thin. Looks like sick skill but maybe translates better to the eastern conference style of play given his frame.
William was shorter and has managed to bulk up quite well since being drafted. Alex should be able to fill out over time so I personally wouldn't be too concerned about that. But it does mean that Alex Nylander probably isn't close to NHL ready as he isn't physically mature enough yet.
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Originally Posted by The Original FFIV
Chychrun comparable to Bogosian? If that's the case, no thanks. Bogosian never lived up to his draft ranking and if Chychrun has a similar trajectory I think we look elsewhere. I'd take another Brodie in Juolevi if that's the case.
I think Craig Button struggles with defensemen evaluations more than forwards. He had Hanifin lower than almost everybody last year and Hanifin looks like an absolute stud. This year he's got Chychrun lower than most. Right now he has no d-men in his top 6 and only one in his top 8 (Juolevi). I'm guessing a lot of teams see it different. I've heard Ekblad comparisons to Chychrun too. If a team thinks of Chychrun as closer to Ekblad than Bogosian then he's worth spending a top 6 pick on. I love Craig Button's lists and comparables but everybody has their strengths and weaknesses and biases and it sound like Button isn't as high on Chychrun as others. Doesn't mean he's right
What we don't know is if the Flames thinking lies closer to Craig Button's who has Chychrun 9th on his latest list, or if the Flames thinking lies closer to the Draft Analyst, who has Chychrun #2 behind Matthews.
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Originally Posted by The Original FFIV
That being said, Buttons comparables seem to be a stretch in some cases. I can't see Nylander with the grit Pavelski brings and Dubois seems to have a much more physical edge than steen has. I know not an exact science but you'd think he'd be able to come up with a better measuring stick.
Stylistic comparisons are tricky. It's not like Pavelski is a big hitter or anything and I have read that Nylander doesn't shy away from board battles. I think Button is trying to illustrate the Nylander is a dual threat with his scoring and passing.
Dubois? I've heard Jamie Benn as a stylistic comparison, that might be closer.
In the end each player is unique and Button is trying to find a current NHLer that reminds him of that player in a stylistic sense. When the draft guides come out we'll have a lot more comparisons to draw on.
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I'll do this really quick, maybe expand on it later. Laine has the higher offensive upside up but Puljujarvi and Dubois have the better all around game, while both still being capable of putting up 30+ goals and 70+ points. I value that a little more.
Love the physicality of Puljujarvi, Laine is a big hitter too, but Jesse is the more physical guy shift-to-shift I think. Patrick's skating leaves something to be desired as well, probably won't hold him back however, neither Gaudreau or Monahan are speedsters. IIRC sureLoss posted something about Puljujarvi's potenial at center which is really enticing.
With Dubois I admit I'm higher on him than most, but I love watching this kid play. You can't help but love how versatile he is at age 17. Can play either forward position effectively. His wing, off-wing or down the middle. The guy doesn't stop either, is a workhorse and a leader. To me he's a complete player.
And of, he's a creative and dynamic offensive player too. He might not score 40+ like Laine but you'll get 30 goals from him, while also being a positive everywhere else. Dubois has continue to "rise" in draft rankings for a reason and he's going to be the gem that's left after Matthews and the Finns.
Hmmm that wasn't very quick, still could expand more later.
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I've read some reports that Laine's all around game is actually more developed than Puljujarvi, aside from the shortcomings of his skating. Not sure if or to what extent that's true but I'm not jumping to the assumption that Puljujarvi has an edge in that regard.
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Yeah, listen. Just to be clear if the Flames end up drafting 2nd overall and pick Laine I'll be over the moon as well. I'm not jumping to any conclusions either, we're all just fans and even those that want to pretend they're amateur scouts are as in the dark as anyone else.
Tkachuk would not be my preference. Something about him just seems off. I would drop him a tier.
What about him seems off? This year he definitely is the prospect that the scouts love but the casual fans who don't see him a ton seem to dislike or value lower. He doesn't get much love on HF at all.
Personally I think its mostly because he's a complimentary power forward type. Fans prefer the sexy pick, the flashy puck handler who can pick the corner (like a Nylander lets say) or the playmaking centre. I know that you know that in the NHL offence is very much about retaining possession through board battles, screening the goalie, mucking around the goal crease to get garbage goals, cross crease passes, etc. This is where sometimes the pure skill guy who plays a soft game never pans out. See our disappointment with Baertschi and Granlund who had high skill but couldn't win board battles to save their lives, couldn't stand in front of the net to screen the goalie and get deflections, just didn't have enough jam, physicality, and strength to overcome their size.
Tkachuk is the opposite. He's got the NHL style game already as he's the best player in the draft behind the net, around the crease, battling along the boards, being consistent and hard working every shift. That type of player and their role is often underrated by fans. That type of player does the hard work to win the board battles and then makes an outstanding pass to a wide open Marner. Complimentary power forwards can really open up space and create offensive situations for their line mates. That's part of why I like them, think they are undervalued and think we need one of each of our top two lines. Especially in this division where our rivals have loaded up 2-4 lines of power forward wingers. Fans often underrate how big a role Chris Simon played in our 2003-04 run with his work screening the goalie on the power play and the fact he won physical battles all over the ice while having the skill to pass or score as well.
Tkachuk would fit us like a glove, like many of the top winger prospects this year IMO. He's showed he can play with great players and make them better as he's shown in his time playing with Matthews in International Competitions and the US NDTP program and now with Marner and Dvorak to make the scariest line in the OHL. His biggest attributes are hockey sense, playmaking, work ethic, and puck protection. He'd be able to do the dirty work for Gaudreau/Monahan and set them up all day or finish their set ups or to combine with Bennett to make a deadly bang and crash but highly skilled duo.
I struggle to see what is not to like about Tkachuk. His only downside is he's not an elite skater but I don't think his skating will hold him back at all.
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First of all, see sig below. That's how I have them ranked. So yes I have Tkachuk ahead of Nylander as well. But I dunno, I'm just skeptical how well his game will translate perfectly. He's not packing a Nathan Horton-class frame, and from what I've seen he doesn't hit relentlessly like Dustin Brown. They call him a power forward in all the scouting reports but when I've watched him he just seems a tier below Dubois.
I don't agree with your assessment of Tkachuk. I don't see a power forward in him at all. I don't see him as a dominant forward along the boards. I don't see him owning the front of the net. I also don't see him bulling his way to the net with much regularity. Frankly, when I watch Tkachuk I see the least talented player on his line and a guy that makes hay because of his line mates. I also don't believe his game in junior will translate to the pros. Defensemen are much bigger and stronger. Tkachuk is likely to be average size, and that will hurt him. I think that if this guy's name was John Smith there wouldn't be near as much excitement over him. But because his name is Tkachuk people have visions of his old man flash through their heads and think he'll do the same things his father did. I'd be surprised if he turns into a player like you're talking about.
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First of all, see sig below. That's how I have them ranked. So yes I have Tkachuk ahead of Nylander as well. But I dunno, I'm just skeptical how well his game will translate perfectly. He's not packing a Nathan Horton-class frame, and from what I've seen he doesn't hit relentlessly like Dustin Brown. They call him a power forward in all the scouting reports but when I've watched him he just seems a tier below Dubois.
First of all, see sig below. That's how I have them ranked. So yes I have Tkachuk ahead of Nylander as well. But I dunno, I'm just skeptical how well his game will translate perfectly. He's not packing a Nathan Horton-class frame, and from what I've seen he doesn't hit relentlessly like Dustin Brown. They call him a power forward in all the scouting reports but when I've watched him he just seems a tier below Dubois.
Interesting rankings from McKeen's that's for sure.
As for Tkachuk and power forwards I think its a matter of semantics. In old school terminology what makes a power forward is hitting and fighting combined with goal scoring. But I think the term has evolved to mean a forward who uses size and strength to protect the puck, shrug off checks, win board battles and net front battles. IMO hitting and fighting don't have to be integral parts of being a power forward. Holmstrom was one of the great power forwards of my youth. Impossible to move from the front of the net, he soaked up opposition crosschecks and made life miserable for goalies. People called Iginla a power forward and he was early in his career but about halfway through he lost the ability to power through checking and dominate board battles and he became a triggerman, a sniper. On our current team both Ferland and Colborne play a power forward style although it's been an area that Colborne has needed to develop, he wasn't naturally good at using his size to his advantage. He's gotten a lot better at winning board battles, driving the net, and screening the goalie.
Maybe there's a better term we can invent for it but that's the term I'm going to continue to use until I hear a better one. I think it would be counterproductive at this point to invent a new one.
Regarding Laine - others have chimed in with their reasons as to why he seems great - loads of skill and seems to be near generational in terms of goal scoring. What I also like about him is his size (apparently, he is 6'5" now, right?) and that he plays physical. Out of Mathews and Puljujarvi, he is the most physical (and nasty at times) out of the three. I rank his board play much higher as well, and thus why I feel he is absolutely the best complimentary player for the top line on the Flames.
Tkachuk - I 100% feel he is a power forward, and looks to translate as such. He is 4 inches shorter than Laine (6'1" from what I gather so far), but he plays physically more regularly. Now, people think power-forward, and they envision a guy bowling guys over in the corners, or driving the net and have guys bouncing off of him. That is not a power forward... that is Eric Lindros, and he is not available this draft. What Tkachuk does so well is compete in the corners quite well, gets a bit nasty while doing it, and often comes away with the puck. What makes him incredibly valuable is that he also has very good vision and makes outstanding passes once he gets the puck on his stick, and his finish around the net is probably bordering on how well Mathews finishes. I think he is the guy that stirs the drink on that line, while his linemates are just 'flashier'. He drives the net well and gets positioning there - he is tough to move. He has that desire for the puck that makes him get out-competed for the puck a rare thing.
Dubois - I have him above Tkachuk at a solid 4 right now - but only because he plays a 200ft game and has a non-stop motor. I think Tkachuk seems like the better finisher around the net, but Dubois is a nastier but slightly less skilled and slower than Puljujarvi. I see him as a guy that can pitch-in in all 3 zones and really help puck possession, as well as adding physicality that the Flames still lack in their top 6. Just a better all-around player than Tkachuk, but Tkachuk is a bit better along the boards and has (IMO) better vision.
Puljujarvi - I have him SOLIDLY at #3. There is nobody that should be displacing him. He is FAST. He is big (6'4). He can pass and has great vision. He can score goals - a big step down from Laine, but I think he will be the better goal scorer even over Tkachuk. It is like Dubois on steroids - minus the nastiness. Also, his exuberance is second to none - just look at that big smile on his face. Apparently he is a favorite guy in the locker room as well (character is important). What is fascinating about Puljujarvi is that he has NO WEAKNESSES. The only reasons why the guys ahead of him are ranked higher is because they are absolutely elite in a couple of areas. Puljujarvi is a bit of a step down, BUT he has the potential to develop into a better player than those two above him. I wouldn't bet on it, but it isn't out of his reach either. His skating is simply elite - that is the only elite thing out of him that I see anyways. However, literally everything else about his game I consider 'really good' - he can play physical and does it well (though he isn't nasty), he has a really good shot - both wrister and one-timers, he plays a solid 200ft game as a winger, he has the most vision in terms of play-making out of the top 5 I think (yes, including Mathews), and he has arguably a better non-stop motor than Dubois.
Laine
Mathews
Puljujarvi
Dubois
Tkachuk
Chychrun
Juloevi
Sergachev
Nylander
McLeod
That is my ranking.
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I don't agree with your assessment of Tkachuk. I don't see a power forward in him at all. I don't see him as a dominant forward along the boards. I don't see him owning the front of the net. I also don't see him bulling his way to the net with much regularity. Frankly, when I watch Tkachuk I see the least talented player on his line and a guy that makes hay because of his line mates. I also don't believe his game in junior will translate to the pros. Defensemen are much bigger and stronger. Tkachuk is likely to be average size, and that will hurt him. I'd be surprised if he turns into a player like you're talking about.
What style of forward is he then if not a power forward?
IMO there's a few general types of forwards that I think you can classify a player as:
Finesse winger or pure skill winger: ala Gaudreau, Kane
Playmaking, pass first type centre: ala Joe Thornton
Dual threat centre with playmaking and scoring (aka franchise centre): ala Malkin, Crosby, Sakic, Yzerman, Toews, etc)
Goal scoring winger: ala Bure, Kessel, Ovechkin
Powerforward: ala Simmonds, Lucic, Paccioretty, Wheeler, Hartnell, Foligno, Perry, Maroon, etc
Grinder: ala Hathaway, Bouma, Jooris
Two way centre: ala Backlund
Two way winger :ala Frolik
Now size isn't the only determinant in being a power forward. But bigger players often succeed more easily at that style because they power through checking more easily. What determines a finesse player vs a power forward is how they operate in the offensive zone, how they beat people. Gaudreau beats people with skill, stick handling, agility, anticipation, speed. Lucic beats people with size, strength, puck protection.
IMO Tkachuk has enough of puck protection, grind along the boards, type style of play to call him a power forward even though he will as you point out have merely average size at the NHL level. But he's also got great hockey IQ and playmaking. As one of the quotes I've often pulled out on him says, he can beat you with finesse or with power. So maybe we should be calling him a hybrid player who implements elements of both skill and power? I dunno.
What style of play would you describe his as if you had to sum it up?
I feel like we're splitting hairs under a microscope when it comes to the big Finn's. The Flames getting either/or will be a much better team moving forward. Myself like MrMastadonFarm prefer Puljujarvi over Laine by a little bit but IMO they're so close I really don't see a big difference. For me I like the way Puljujarvi skates more than Laine. I like his on ice vision more. But they're not that far apart in either department. Laine has a total shoot first mentality and a wicked shot and he has that over Puljujarvi, I think that's a given. But all these highlights coming out for both during the playoffs show me Puljujarvi has almost and equally lethal shot. Really it's going to come down to who's face do you like more I think.
I just do not see any possible way Dubois sneaks into the conversation with these two.
What about him seems off? This year he definitely is the prospect that the scouts love but the casual fans who don't see him a ton seem to dislike or value lower. He doesn't get much love on HF at all.
I think any junior player that is successful cause of their size but isn't actually above average size for an NHL player is an immediate red flag.
I haven't watched him but if thats true I want to stay far away. Screams bust since he won't be able to play a big mans game in the NHL.
First of all, see sig below. That's how I have them ranked. So yes I have Tkachuk ahead of Nylander as well. But I dunno, I'm just skeptical how well his game will translate perfectly. He's not packing a Nathan Horton-class frame, and from what I've seen he doesn't hit relentlessly like Dustin Brown. They call him a power forward in all the scouting reports but when I've watched him he just seems a tier below Dubois.
Wow. I wouldn't even put McLeod that high but I am glad that there's people out there that love him as much as I do. I'm at the point right now where I'm not sure who I take between him and his team mate.
McLeod has better size and better skating. And by most accounts, a far better 200ft game. Flames @5 is going to be a tough pick.
