Alberta Provincial By-Elections - Fall 2014 Editions

[c.t.ner]

So with nominations for the two vacant MLA seats in Alberta closing today and Prentice expected to announce the dates for 3 Potential By-elections this Fall, I figured it would be good to start this thread and start-up the conversation. (I'll update the list below once all nominations are made)

Calgary-Elbow
Gordon Dirks - PCAA
John Fletcher - WRP
Susan Wright - Alberta Liberals
Stephanie McLean - NDP
Greg Clarke - Alberta Party

Calgary-Foothills
Jim Prentice - PCAA
Kathy Macdonald - WRP
Jennifer Burgess - NDP
Michelle Glavine - AlbertaParty
Polly Knowlton Cockett - Green Party

Calgary-West
Mike Ellis - PCAA
Sheila Taylor - WRP
Troy Millington - Alberta Party
Brian Malkinson - NDP

Edmonton-Whitmud
Stephen Mandel - PCAA
Tim Grover - WRP
Bob Turner - NDP
William Munsey - Alberta Party

[Kjesse]

If elbow votes PC they deserve the locusts that will surely follow.

[Slava]

Good call on the new thread.

I am going to make a prediction (which will probably prove entirely wrong, considering the race has really barely started). I think that the Liberals and Alberta Party blow their brains out and split that vote up. The Wildrose is less of a factor I these urban ridings and as a result Dirks pulls out the win.

Interesting thing though, regardless, are the potential ramifications from this particular riding. If Dirks loses to anyone, what does that say about Prentice and his future? If the Alberta Party loses to the Liberals here are they done (did they ever really start in the event of a poor showing), and of course same question for the Liberals, who have to at least solidly show better than the Alberta Party or that same question will be asked. Interesting times.

[Bigtime]

I'm going to go with Greg Clark for Calgary-Elbow. After all, he does have the magic of Stephen Carter on his side (and a lot of Nenshi supporters that are really good at getting the name and vote out).

Like you say Slava, if the Alberta Party doesn't get this I think it is a very big blow to them. It will be a big battle for them to get recognition to have Clark win though, despite what many of them say on twitter (and they are definitely a more online crew) I'd wager damn near nobody knows they even exist. But to that point, damn near nobody knew who Nenshi was either, so there are some parallels that Carter can work with.

[Resolute 14]

I will admit to some bewilderment as to the talk about the Alberta party here as the latest polls show them as a complete non-factor. The Leger poll from the start of the month lumped them in the "other" group, which was only at 4-5% in Calgary. I can't see there being enough of a local groundswell in Calgary-Elbow for them to matter.

Slava's thought that Wildrose is "less of a factor" in the urban ridings is also largely wishful thinking. Not only has the party consistently led in Calgary in the latest polls, but it obviously wouldn't be the first time a Calgary riding went Wildrose in a by-election. IMO, Calgary-Elbow is a two-way fight between PC and Wildrose. If the Alberta Party draws anything more than that 4%, then the Liberals are probably a non-factor. But if they can hold the left, I think they could make it a three-way battle.

Mandel should take Edmonton-Whitemud easily. Prentice should win whatever riding they parachute him into as well. Wonder how they compensate whatever MLA they get to take a bullet for him, however.

[Bigtime]

I view Greg Clarke and the Alberta Party in this riding like Chris Turner running for the Greens in Calgary-Centre a few years back, and taking quite a big chunk of the vote. Now of course had they not split the votes with the Liberals the PC's would have lost that by-election.

I wouldn't underestimate them, especially with Carter involved and a lot of the hyper-engaged Nenshi folks in their camp.

[Resolute 14]

Honestly, I don't think it is possible to underestimate them. We're talking about a riding where the PCs and Wildrose took 86% of the vote in the last election. As irrelevant as the Liberals were last time out - Calgary-Elbow was their second worst showing in Calgary by percentage of vote - I do think disaffected Tory voters who don't want to vote Wildrose could flock to the reds. I think it unlikely that they go farther, even in protest.

Stephen Carter is good, but this isn't like Nenshi's first election where there is no incumbent and the only battle is to build the individual's name. This time, they have to deal with a candidate who is already a minister with a high profile portfolio, two parties with entrenched support, two direct opponents on the left, and four opposing parties with name recognition that they lack.

[Ozy_Flame]

I know Greg. Good guy, passionate about politics. Has been pacing the province quite a bit for the last two years getting to know the community and what makes Albertans tick.

Even if he can't do it with the Alberta Party in his first go-around, he definitely has a political career ahead of him.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I will admit to some bewilderment as to the talk about the Alberta party here as the latest polls show them as a complete non-factor. The Leger poll from the start of the month lumped them in the "other" group, which was only at 4-5% in Calgary. I can't see there being enough of a local groundswell in Calgary-Elbow for them to matter.

Slava's thought that Wildrose is "less of a factor" in the urban ridings is also largely wishful thinking. Not only has the party consistently led in Calgary in the latest polls, but it obviously wouldn't be the first time a Calgary riding went Wildrose in a by-election. IMO, Calgary-Elbow is a two-way fight between PC and Wildrose. If the Alberta Party draws anything more than that 4%, then the Liberals are probably a non-factor. But if they can hold the left, I think they could make it a three-way battle.

Mandel should take Edmonton-Whitemud easily. Prentice should win whatever riding they parachute him into as well. Wonder how they compensate whatever MLA they get to take a bullet for him, however.

Its not only wishful thinking on my part though because these inner city ridings are more Liberal than what is lumped into that poll. You have the suburbs there for example which are far more conservative than the downtown core or surrounding communities.

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Honestly, I don't think it is possible to underestimate them. We're talking about a riding where the PCs and Wildrose took 86% of the vote in the last election. As irrelevant as the Liberals were last time out - Calgary-Elbow was their second worst showing in Calgary by percentage of vote - I do think disaffected Tory voters who don't want to vote Wildrose could flock to the reds. I think it unlikely that they go farther, even in protest.

Stephen Carter is good, but this isn't like Nenshi's first election where there is no incumbent and the only battle is to build the individual's name. This time, they have to deal with a candidate who is already a minister with a high profile portfolio, two parties with entrenched support, two direct opponents on the left, and four opposing parties with name recognition that they lack.

I agree with your second paragraph. I also think that a mayoralty campaign makes that social media angle more effective because more people are engaged in general and changing facebook or twitter avatars has an impact. I'm not sure that this will be as effective on a smaller riding where people are less engaged in general and people have no idea whether they're live in the riding or not.

I also disagree with the point that the Liberal showing was the worst so this time they are going to get slaughtered. Its obvious that this riding is liberal in general and the thought was to keep the Wildrose out, and flock to the PCs. The big question is where those votes go this time. My thought is not to the socially conservative Fletcher or Dirks, but split between the other 2-3 candidates.

[Maccalus]

These are also by-elections and weird things happen in by-elections. Voter turnout is usually lower and protest votes against the current government are more likely to succeed. Because of this, I think the Alberta Party has as big a chance as any of the 3 left parties in Calgary Elbow.

[c.t.ner]

Here's some intereting info from Daveberta on the by elections.

http://daveberta.ca/2014/09/calgary-...d-by-election/

Constituency Association Net Assets, Calgary-Elbow, 2013
Progressive Conservative: $207,972.97
Wildrose: $72,625.47
Liberals: $540.79
NDP – $0
Alberta Party: $2,465.16

Constituency Association Net Assets, Edmonton-Whitemud, 2013
PC = $32,366.72
Wildrose: $4,486.82
Liberal – $1,528.40
NDP – $$286.77
Alberta Party: $1,171.76

The PCAA has an incredible war chest that they're sitting on for the Elbow riding.

[calgarygeologist]

Calgary Elbow will be an interesting fight to watch. I think Dirks will get pressed heavily from many angles by the various parties from numerous perspectives (ie. entitlement, education, religion, gay rights, etc.)

[Senator Clay Davis]

The Elbow by-election certainly has potential for someone to sneak through the middle of a vote split. I agree with Slava what happened last time isn't too relevant because of a likely significant (15-20% maybe) amount of votes made to the PCs in an effort to block the Wildrose as opposed to actual support for Redford.

Predictably the Wildrose slogan for these by-elections is the moronic "Send the PC's a message". Bizarre choice considering voting for the Liberals or Alberta Party is also sending the PC's a message, in fact an even stronger one: Don't count on us saving you next time like we did last time.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Maccalus

These are also by-elections and weird things happen in by-elections. Voter turnout is usually lower and protest votes against the current government are more likely to succeed. Because of this, I think the Alberta Party has as big a chance as any of the 3 left parties in Calgary Elbow.

This may be very valid. The last time that Calgary Elbow was involved in a by-election the voted in a liberal candidate (who subsequently lost the seat to Redford.)

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

I also disagree with the point that the Liberal showing was the worst so this time they are going to get slaughtered.

Where did I say that? Pretty sure I actually said the complete opposite.

Its obvious that this riding is liberal in general and the thought was to keep the Wildrose out, and flock to the PCs.

I could take this argument more seriously if not for the fact that this riding has existed since 1971 and has been Tory for virtually its entire existence - Cheffins won a 2007 by-election that could be characterized as equivalent to Paul Hinman's win in Calgary-Glenmore for Wildrose in 2009. Both were turfed in the following general election.

This riding is PC in general, though it has occasionally managed a strong Liberal challenge. As I noted, the Liberals could make a credible showing of it if they can hold the left, but the facts are, if the PCs were to drop 30 points in this vote and the Liberals took 20 of those, they would still only be the third place party.

[c.t.ner]

The issue with Elbow is that it doesn't overlap with Mission/Beltline district, where the strong "Nenshi" support pushed Woolley to a win and Turner to a strong Third place finish. It mainly plays to the higher income brackets of the Elboya, Rideau Park, Britiannia, Roxoboro neighbourhoods.

I grew up in the neighbourhood and my gut feeling is that the more liberal families of the neighbourhood have been pushed out for massive million dollar home owners, so I'm not sure what that does to the demographics.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

The issue with Elbow is that it doesn't overlap with Mission/Beltline district, where the strong "Nenshi" support pushed Woolley to a win and Turner to a strong Third place finish. It mainly plays to the higher income brackets of the Elboya, Rideau Park, Britiannia, Roxoboro neighbourhoods.

I grew up in the neighbourhood and my gut feeling is that the more liberal families of the neighbourhood have been pushed out for massive million dollar home owners, so I'm not sure what that does to the demographics.

I don't know what the specific demographics for the riding are but I lived in South Calgary/Marda Loop/Altadore for ~6 years up until last December. During that time, based on my interactions I noticed that there was a significant number of people in the area that tended to be liberal (obviously I never straight out asked anyone which party they supported.) The Liberal party also always had a strong showing/presence at community events like Marda Gras but I don't recall ever seeing the PC or WRP represented.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Where did I say that? Pretty sure I actually said the complete opposite.



I could take this argument more seriously if not for the fact that this riding has existed since 1971 and has been Tory for virtually its entire existence - Cheffins won a 2007 by-election that could be characterized as equivalent to Paul Hinman's win in Calgary-Glenmore for Wildrose in 2009. Both were turfed in the following general election.

This riding is PC in general, though it has occasionally managed a strong Liberal challenge. As I noted, the Liberals could make a credible showing of it if they can hold the left, but the facts are, if the PCs were to drop 30 points in this vote and the Liberals took 20 of those, they would still only be the third place party.

Whoops! I misread your original post. My apologies!

I guess I do agree that the riding is PC, but not many aren't. I just get the impression, perhaps due to the by-election campaign win, that this riding is more red-tory than others.

In general though people are giving more credit to the campaign team for the Alberta Party than they should. Lets not forget that they ran the same candidate last time and he barely received over 500 votes. He placed a distant, distant fifth place. Is the campaign team good? Sure. But they haven't won every campaign they've been involved in either. Carter basically did nothing for Martha Hall-Findlay and her leadership bid. Alnoor for mayor was a disaster for a number of reasons. He has won when it seemed unlikely, but lets not inflate the probabilities here; its an uphill battle and oftentimes the underdog just simply loses. Corey Hogan, who worked for the ALP, managed to get them elected only in seats where the personal popularity of the candidates was effective and in some ridings was a close-call at best. Marc Doll has almost no electoral success to his name. I mean he campaigned for Gael Macleod and John Mar last time around and lost both. Its far from a certainty that this team can pull this off.

I expect to see a "Greg Clark is leading Elbow" poll anyday now though. I'm only a little surprised to have not seen it already. It will either be that, or Clark is second and everyone in Elbow should vote for him because he is the only one who can keep Dirks out. Its basically the tried and true method for Carter.

[killer_carlson]

The WR and PCs will split the Elbow vote. Clark wins as he takes some from the PCs and all from the libs.

Whitemud ... a little surprised to see the WR warchest there so low. That is an active constituency association. If they run the candidate I suspect they will, I think fundraising won't be a problem. Mandel still wins the seat, but the WR will come second.

[c.t.ner]

Given the trends of the electoral results, my guess is that it'll take AT LEAST 35% of the vote to take Elbow. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calgary-Elbow) If the Alberta Party can increase their support from 2% to 35% then more power to them.