Jankowski vs Bennett - Battle for the #3C?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Eric Vail

I hope Jankowski has a 10+ year career with the Flames as a 2nd/3rd line centre. I think it is just as likely that he washes out without making an impact.

He is a prospect who hasn't proven anything in the NHL.

See that just doesn't make sense. He's proven things in college. More importantly he's proven things in the minors. He's shown things in training camps and development camps. He's got size, skating and skill. There's a lot more reasons at this time to think he'll be a top 3 centre in the NHL then to think he'll wash out.

I'll happily bet on him making a career as a top 3 centre, I think it's a pretty safe bet. You think it's 50/50? I think he's got like a 90+% chance of achieving top 3 centre.

[Eric Vail]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

But he did prove to have a really good first professional season, which is much better than nothing. Jankowski's recent progression actually fairly strongly suggests that he will be a NHL player, and probably a pretty good one.

The point here being that one cannot simply extrapolate from the long duration of his development to conclude that he is likely to wash out of the NHL.

Are there other first round picks who took 5 years or so before they made the NHL that had productive careers?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Eric Vail

Are there other first round picks who took 5 years or so before they made the NHL that had productive careers?

I don't think so. But as far as I know there has not been a first round pick who was drafted out of prep school. The reasons why Jankowski is unique as a prospect are well documented, and I am not the least bit concerned that his journey to the NHL has been a long one.

Have you watched him play this year?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Eric Vail

Are there other first round picks who took 5 years or so before they made the NHL that had productive careers?

I'm not sure there many other first round picks who were waiver-exempt entering their draft+6 season, one way or another. There's a "what came first" scenario here of whether plenty of first rounders were rushed and chugged along with 30-40 point seasons until they were really entering their prime (Claude Giroux type NHL curves, or even Backlund for us). Is making the NHL and struggling a better accomplishment than making the NHL when you can legitimately make an impact shift-after-shift?

With that caveat a few guys that do come to mind might be:

Kyle Turris - was handled questionably by Treliving and co in Phoenix despite being a 3rd overall and didn't really establish himself until his Draft+5 season give or take. His first full 55 point season was his draft+7. I'm actually mentioning him because I think he is a good comparable to Bennett's development curve than anything.

Blake Wheeler - Made the NHL in his Draft+5 season as a free agent (picked his own destination), was arguably rushed though and didn't really break out as a first liner until his draft+8 after he was traded for being too soft. No one would call him soft today.

Derek Forbort - was playing on L.A.'s top defense pairing last year as a rookie in his draft+7 season despite being a 15th overall pick

Brady Skjei - just wrapped up his Draft+5 season as a rookie, was 28th overall.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Eric Vail

Are there other first round picks who took 5 years or so before they made the NHL that had productive careers?

Why don't you judge Jankowski on his merits, skills and abilities and not the past historical developments of players who aren't Jankowski. Each prospect is different and unique. Have you ever even seen him play?

[Eric Vail]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Why don't you judge Jankowski on his merits, skills and abilities and not the past historical developments of players who aren't Jankowski. Each prospect is different and unique. Have you ever even seen him play?

The honest answer is no, I haven't. I do not pretend to be an expert scout or at forecasting player development. I have followed hockey for long enough to know that prospects usually do not fulfill the hype that they get. I have seen many who were considered can't miss, who did miss.

We'll see what happens with him. I hope he exceeds all expectations. I think expecting him to unseat veterans on the depth chart next year when he has basically never played in the NHL is getting ahead of ourselves.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Eric Vail

The honest answer is no, I haven't. I do not pretend to be an expert scout or at forecasting player development. I have followed hockey for long enough to know that prospects usually do not fulfill the hype that they get. I have seen many who were considered can't miss, who did miss.

We'll see what happens with him. I hope he exceeds all expectations. I think expecting him to unseat veterans on the depth chart next year when he has basically never played in the NHL is getting ahead of ourselves.

But its not fans hoping, wishing or dreaming that he'll make the team for no good reason. Management thinks he'll push for a spot. Management thinks he was one of the top rookies in the minor leagues if not the top one. The next logical progression for him is the NHL. Sure he might spend a bit more time in the AHL next year but there's no good reason to think he'll be there for long. Personally having seen him play he's not as far behind our other young centres in terms of skill as you might think. Everything Jankowski's done in the past 3 years indicates he's a future NHLer IMO.

I understand taking a wait and see approach on prospects who were just drafted, lots bust. But we have years of information on this guy's development and he hasn't disappointed in his progression. He's right on track. IMO don't try and poo poo this guy's chances if you haven't seen him play. Don't try and use pointless historical comparisons. Jankowski is his own unique case. We knew his development was going to take a while when he was drafted so nothing to be worried about there.

The fans who think he'll push for a spot this fall have every reason to believe it. Don't try and tell us otherwise if you're not as informed on this player.

[bax]

If Jankowski was never drafted he would have been a big name college UFA after his junior year at Providence. He's a great prospect

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

But its not fans hoping, wishing or dreaming that he'll make the team for no good reason. Management thinks he'll push for a spot. Management thinks he was one of the top rookies in the minor leagues if not the top one. The next logical progression for him is the NHL. Sure he might spend a bit more time in the AHL next year but there's no good reason to think he'll be there for long. Personally having seen him play he's not as far behind our other young centres in terms of skill as you might think. Everything Jankowski's done in the past 3 years indicates he's a future NHLer IMO.



I understand taking a wait and see approach on prospects who were just drafted, lots bust. But we have years of information on this guy's development and he hasn't disappointed in his progression. He's right on track. IMO don't try and poo poo this guy's chances if you haven't seen him play. Don't try and use pointless historical comparisons. Jankowski is his own unique case. We knew his development was going to take a while when he was drafted so nothing to be worried about there.



The fans who think he'll push for a spot this fall have every reason to believe it. Don't try and tell us otherwise if you're not as informed on this player.

The guy's just stating his opinion. Not sure why everyone is jumping on him.

[vilzeh]

Because there's no opinions here, it's all cold facts, I mean: Jankowski is already a solid NHL player with a great future ahead of him. - That would be the answer if you'd ask the board.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by edslunch

The guy's just stating his opinion. Not sure why everyone is jumping on him.

No. Eric Vail has offered more than his mere opinion:

Originally Posted by Eric Vail

...I think he is over-rated by many here. He has played 6 years of hockey since he was drafted and only has 1 NHL game to his credit. Most players in that situation don't have lengthy NHL careers.

People have responded because his view of Jankowski seems shallow and misinformed. Having an "opinion" does not insulate one from criticism.

[JFK]

Jankowski was a highly unique prospect when drafted, very few if any comparables. He continues to be that five years after. Trying to find any, or players with similar positions or trajectories has been almost impossible.

[FBI]

The good news is all future projects on all teams will now be compared to Mark Jankowski so we will get to talk about him forevermore!

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

No. Eric Vail has offered more than his mere opinion:



People have responded because his view of Jankowski seems shallow and misinformed. Having an "opinion" does not insulate one from criticism.

Why should a poster be criticized for an opinion (unless of course it is offensive), and why does his opinion become an "opinion" just because you don't agree. Look, Jankowski looks like he's trending very well but the fact remains he is an unproven prospect ATM. Other threads are full of wise CP posters (possibly yourself included) advising caution when evaluating prospects. I'm not sure why it's so vehemently different in this case.

[Yrebmi]

Isn't FDW and TextCritic just offering their own counter opinion?

Why do you think Eric Vail is being "jumped on" or being "vehemently" responded to?
Did I miss the post where someone called him names?

[Eric Vail]

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

Isn't FDW and TextCritic just offering their own counter opinion?

Why do you think Eric Vail is being "jumped on" or being "vehemently" responded to?
Did I miss the post where someone called him names?

The fans who think he'll push for a spot this fall have every reason to believe it. Don't try and tell us otherwise if you're not as informed on this player.

A comment like this tells me that I shouldn't state my different opinion because I am not as informed as those who hold a different one.

All I am saying is when following hockey for decades, I have seen many players who did not live up to what they were projected to be. Unfortunately, many of them were Flames. I'm going to hold my excitement until he actually makes it. Hopefully, he will.

[Strange Brew]

Would Bennett be a better centre today with some time in the AHL learning the position?

[JFK]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Would Bennett be a better centre today with some time in the AHL learning the position?

It's possible but Bennett wasn't eligible for the AHL until last season. After being just shy of 20 goals as a 19 year old it would have been pretty shocking to see him dispatched to the AHL. Interesting question but ultimately it's way too much hindsight for my liking.

[GioforPM]

A thought arising from the discussion about college players and when to bring them in - since the norm these days is for a decline in play after about age 26, but given also that college players don't hit the NHL until much later, what's their career longevity on average? On the one hand, they haven't had as many high contact NHL years, but on the other hand, the body ages the same way no matter what league you're in.

I'm as hopeful about Jankowski as most people here, but I hope his NHL career from rookie to retirement isn't a lot shorter because he will be a 23 or 24 year old rookie (depending on whether he breaks in this year or next), as opposed to a 19-20 year old one. IMO it's one reason to get him in sooner rather than later.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Why should a poster be criticized for an opinion (unless of course it is offensive), and why does his opinion become an "opinion" just because you don't agree. Look, Jankowski looks like he's trending very well but the fact remains he is an unproven prospect ATM. Other threads are full of wise CP posters (possibly yourself included) advising caution when evaluating prospects. I'm not sure why it's so vehemently different in this case.

Imagine you said Giordano is overrated on this board. Then admitted you had never seen him play. What do you think the reaction would be? Of course it's the posters opinion. But when it's not based on as much solid information as other people's opinions it will be criticized.

As far as Jankowski being "unproven" that's not totally true. At every level they play at prospects prove things to scouts, fans, coaches, etc. Jankowski has developed and come to be a key member of an NCAA championship squad showing his skill, skating and size. There were questions about how he'd adapt to the pro game. Then he seamlessly jumped to the pro game and started excelling right off the bat. He showed his skill, skating and size at the minor league level versus men in the 2nd best league in the world and came to be a critical member of our minor league team. Hes proven things to management, our scouts and our minor league coaches. Eric Vail has chosen to ignore all of this.

Usually we advise caution when evaluating prospects that are not yet playing at the pro level. Let's see how he performs against men would be a classic response to someone dominating junior. Jankowski has excelled at the pro level against men. Jankowski is unproven at the NHL level but he's far from an unproven prospect.