The McDavid Sweepstakes: Who will win?

[Jets4Life]

Non-Playoff Team
(Fewest points to most)New Draft Lottery Odds /Former Lottery Odds)

1 20.0% 25.0%
2 13.5% 18.8%
3 11.5% 14.2%
4 9.5% 10.7%
5 8.5% 8.1%
6 7.5% 6.2%
7 6.5% 4.7%
8 6.0% 3.6%
9 5.0% 2.7%
10 3.5% 2.1%
11 3.0% 1.5%
12 2.5% 1.1%
13 2.0% 0.8%
14 1.0% 0.5%


Looks like the odds of non-playoff teams that finish #17-26 have improved, while the bottom four teams (#26-30) will not have as great of a chance of landing Connor McDavid.

Here is an interesting article from Grantland, titled "The NHL's Race to the Bottom"

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/th...to-the-bottom/

"To be clear, we’d certainly never suggest than an NHL team would intentionally tank for the opportunity to draft a generational franchise player. But while the league is making changes to its draft lottery format for next year, it’s reportedly keeping the existing rule that prevents the last-place team from dropping any further than second, meaning that whichever team finishes 30th this year is guaranteed to get one of McDavid or Eichel.

And that makes this year’s NHL basement a very valuable piece of real estate. By my count, a little more than half the teams in the league could be contenders for last place overall if everything went wrong. Of course, some of those teams are better positioned than others, so let’s start with the worst of the worst."

According to the article, the 6 teams that Grantland believes will have the best shot at McDavid are:

-Buffalo
-Calgary
-Florida
-Carolina
-Nashville
-Winnipeg

It will be hard to sit through, but if the Flames or Jets land McDavid, I will be pretty ecstatic...

[bubbsy]

let's wait till trade deadline and discuss

[TheDebaser]

We will win because Burke has the Pittsburgh model all figured out.

Step 1: Win a ####ing lottery.
Step 2: Draft the best player in the game.

[Hockey_Ninja]

I'll choose "wait until June" for $100 Alex.

[TurdFerguson]

Buffalo. There willingness to outsuck, without limit, everyone else is the difference maker.

[Erick Estrada]

Buffalo would have to be the odds on favorite going into the season with the Flames close behind. I really think the Flames could surprise some here by how much they may struggle.

[Poe969]

Since it's all figured out without people seeing, I'll bet the team that the league thinks should get him gets him. Where teams finish and the "lottery" mean nothing since it's all done behind closed doors.

The league will decide who will get McDavid.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

Non-Playoff Team
(Fewest points to most)New Draft Lottery Odds /Former Lottery Odds)

1 20.0% 25.0%
2 13.5% 18.8%
3 11.5% 14.2%
4 9.5% 10.7%
5 8.5% 8.1%
6 7.5% 6.2%
7 6.5% 4.7%
8 6.0% 3.6%
9 5.0% 2.7%
10 3.5% 2.1%
11 3.0% 1.5%
12 2.5% 1.1%
13 2.0% 0.8%
14 1.0% 0.5%


Looks like the odds of non-playoff teams that finish #17-26 have improved, while the bottom four teams (#26-30) will not have as great of a chance of landing Connor McDavid.

Here is an interesting article from Grantland, titled "The NHL's Race to the Bottom"

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/th...to-the-bottom/

"To be clear, we’d certainly never suggest than an NHL team would intentionally tank for the opportunity to draft a generational franchise player. But while the league is making changes to its draft lottery format for next year, it’s reportedly keeping the existing rule that prevents the last-place team from dropping any further than second, meaning that whichever team finishes 30th this year is guaranteed to get one of McDavid or Eichel.

And that makes this year’s NHL basement a very valuable piece of real estate. By my count, a little more than half the teams in the league could be contenders for last place overall if everything went wrong. Of course, some of those teams are better positioned than others, so let’s start with the worst of the worst."

According to the article, the 6 teams that Grantland believes will have the best shot at McDavid are:

-Buffalo
-Calgary
-Florida
-Carolina
-Nashville
-Winnipeg

It will be hard to sit through, but if the Flames or Jets land McDavid, I will be pretty ecstatic...

I wasn't really paying attention when they announced these odds. What was the point in redo-ing these odds exactly? Now there is a bigger gap between the 30th and 29th (odds used to drop by a quarter, now they drop by almost a third), thus giving teams more incentive to tank for the best odds. And they more than doubled the odds of the last few teams out of the playoffs. An 86 point up and coming team who just missed the playoffs getting a player like McDavid purely by luck of the draw will just seem ridiculous if it comes to fruition.

[OutOfTheCube]

Buffalo!

But honestly, if we end up being vastly improved this year and finish outside the bottom I won't be terribly upset. I can't help but cheer for wins.

But if we have a repeat of last year and are out of it by mid-November...

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Since it's all figured out without people seeing, I'll bet the team that the league thinks should get him gets him. Where teams finish and the "lottery" mean nothing since it's all done behind closed doors.

The league will decide who will get McDavid.

The fact that you don't get to watch the balls in the tumbler does not mean the league can cheat the draft that easily. The teams send their own representatives to observe. What you are suggesting would require a league-wide conspiracy involving 31 people with 31 different agendas at the barest minimum. In short, completely impossible.

[Vinny01]

Buffalo made some okay additions this summer ad I dot discount what Chris Stewart might be able to do in a contract year. Their goaltending is a weak spot but they have prospects at early every position that could come in and surprise. I think they will be better than people are giving them credit for.

I really don't like the Coyotes this year and while I am not sure they sink right to the bottom I think they will be in that mix.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Grantland

Edmonton Oilers

Sure, the Oilers have been near the bottom of the league for years. But with excellent young talent like Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle, they have to take a step forward eventually, right?

(Oops, sorry. Accidentally cut-and-pasted my Oilers summary from 2010. Let’s try again …)

Sure, the Oilers have been near the bottom of the league for years. But with excellent young talent like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, they have to take a step forward eventually, right?

(Crap, that one was from 2011. One more try.)

Sure, the Oilers have been near the bottom of the league for years. But with excellent young talent like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz, and Nail Yakupov, they have to take a step forward eventually, right?

(Nope, that was from 2012. You know what, maybe the Oilers should have been in that first section after all.)

That's more like it.

[MisterJoji]

We shock everyone by just barely missing the playoffs and get rewarded for not doing it Edmonton's shameful way, and win the lottery with a 2% chance.

[bluloc]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Buffalo would have to be the odds on favorite going into the season with the Flames close behind. I really think the Flames could surprise some here by how much they may struggle.

Wouldnt be to much of a surprise me thinks.

[Chill Cosby]

Originally Posted by MisterJoji

We shock everyone by just barely missing the playoffs and get rewarded for not doing it Edmonton's shameful way, and win the lottery with a 2% chance.

I'm fine with that. Let's do that one.

[Huntingwhale]

It won't be the Flames, that's for sure.

[Igottago]

I think it could be the Flames. I think this will be one of the painful rebuild years, just don't really think much of the lineup and don't think the kids are seasoned enough yet. I can see the youthful enthusiasm of last season decreasing a bit and frustration setting in more. Whether that makes the Flames bad enough to get McDavid is anyone's guess, but I think they'll be in the running.

[Huntingwhale]

Also should be noted that Buffalo has 3 1st round picks in the 2015 draft, including the Isles' pick. Can they get a 4th? I don't really see the NYI improving and they always seem to be consistently in the lottery running. Buffalo IMO is the favorite.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Also should be noted that Buffalo has 3 1st round picks in the 2015 draft, including the Isles' pick. Can they get a 4th? I don't really see the NYI improving and they always seem to be consistently in the lottery running. Buffalo IMO is the favorite.

A healthy Tavares and upgrading from Nabakov/Poulin/Nilsson to Halak/Johnson would seem like a fairly strong sign to improving.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I think the list is pretty accurate, although I might swap out Jets for Coyotes in the bottom six. Can't discount the oil and there is always a chance at surprise suckiness (Nucks, Leafs?) but on paper, these seem to be the weakest teams.