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Old 07-15-2017, 11:28 AM   #1
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Default THN: Star power in the NHL - what it takes to win the Cup

Some off-season reading material for you. This is just a focus on the star power that teams have in the NHL, and doesn't focus on depth below the 87.5 percentile, but establishes the need for star power and the amount needed to win the Cup. They used the same numbers to calculate odds of winning the Cup. Take it with a grain of salt, but interesting nonetheless.

Thought about posting it in the E=NG thread, but then realized some people might want to have some civilized discussion also, so here you go.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/ar...to-win-the-cup



The highest number of "star points" is Nashville at 22. Pittsburg has 20 and the Flames have 19. The Oilers have 11! Vancouver is tied with Vegas with 0.

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Old 07-15-2017, 11:38 AM   #2
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They have Frolik ranked as a star ahead of Monahan or Brodie

Hamilton ahead of guys like Doughty and Josi...
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Old 07-15-2017, 11:52 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric View Post
They have Frolik ranked as a star ahead of Monahan or Brodie

Hamilton ahead of guys like Doughty and Josi...
They have Frolik as a "borderline star in the right environment"

And it's just what the stats say I suppose. Here is the method they used:

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/07/13...to-game-score/
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Old 07-15-2017, 11:52 AM   #4
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The highest number of "star points" is Nashville at 22. Pittsburg has 20 and the Flames have 19. The Oilers have 11!
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Old 07-15-2017, 11:53 AM   #5
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Everything is super subjective. An interesting look at it though.
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Old 07-15-2017, 11:57 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by gilligans_off View Post
Everything is super subjective. An interesting look at it though.
I wouldn't say everything is that subjective, especially if you look at their method. But how they quantify "star points" based on 5 tiers is subjective, I agree there - the upper echelon of tier one should be worth more in my opinion (I.e. McDavid provides more star power than the lower end of that tier).
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Old 07-15-2017, 11:59 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Rick M. View Post
The highest number of "star points" is Nashville at 22. Pittsburg has 20 and the Flames have 19. The Oilers have 11!
And Vancouver has 0, along with Vegas!
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Old 07-15-2017, 12:02 PM   #8
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And Vancouver has 0, along with Vegas!

This was my favourite part as well. The Canucks and the only NHL team that has yet to play a NHL game are the lone two teams in a thirty-one team League with virtually no "star power."

That is hilarious.
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Old 07-15-2017, 01:06 PM   #9
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Advanced stats piece which of course renders the list kind of useless as a measuring stick of how good a team will be as I think there's a lot of players on their Tier 3 list better than their Tier 2 players. Pacioretty over Backstrom, Stamkos, or Getzlaf? There's no way I'm taking Krug over Pieterangelo and while I'm a Hamilton fan it's kind of shocking they have him in Tier 1. So nice to see it puts the Flames in a good light it's borderline useless as almost half those teams (Jets, Jackets, Flames, Blues, Senators, Bruins) making their cut could conceivably miss the playoffs next season.
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Old 07-15-2017, 01:16 PM   #10
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I'm I blind or did Gaudreau not make the cut as among the best in the league at his position?

Edit - never mind, see him now...

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Old 07-15-2017, 01:17 PM   #11
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So nice to see it puts the Flames in a good light it's borderline useless as almost half those teams (Jets, Jackets, Flames, Blues, Senators, Bruins) making their cut could conceivably miss the playoffs next season.
You simply need to take that back.
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Old 07-15-2017, 01:41 PM   #12
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Terrible analysis. Blake Wheeler is in the top tier of players according to THN.
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Old 07-15-2017, 02:09 PM   #13
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Terrible analysis. Blake Wheeler is in the top tier of players according to THN.
Blake Wheeler has become a helluva player for Winnipeg and has become a good leader on top of that (the Jets captain FYI). He has been over 60 points (pro-rated lockout season included) for the past 6 years, and has had 70+ points the past two years. He's a plus player where the team plus/minus is terrible. He plays a solid 200 foot game and is a very good pro.

The Jets suck because they have bad team defense and awful goaltending. It's not because of players like Wheeler.

Besides which, if you read the article, the author clearly states that even he doesn't agree with the placement of certain players in certain tiers. It's just one tool to look at the makeup of some teams and how it can predict whether they have a good chance at the cup or not. It's not perfect.
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Old 07-15-2017, 03:26 PM   #14
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I don't care what the advanced stats say, Hall isn't better than Malkin, not even close.
Backstrom is a tier 3 talent?
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Old 07-16-2017, 12:01 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Textcritic View Post
This was my favourite part as well. The Canucks and the only NHL team that has yet to play a NHL game are the lone two teams in a thirty-one team League with virtually no "star power." That is hilarious.
Also pretty accurate... personally, I think my favourite part is that it unequivocally puts the Bergeron / Marchand / Pastrnak forward as the best line in the league. And... yeah, last year, they probably were. Wasn't talked about nearly enough.

Anyway, I love when someone does a meticulous analysis that encompasses like, the entire league, and random internet posters look through it to find an outlier and then whine, "but but... this doesn't accord with my preconceived notions about which players are good! The whole endeavour must be a sham!" Not like everything about it has to be 100% correct, but at least it's well thought out and based on some actual data. When you do that, you're going to get some results you might not have expected.
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Old 07-16-2017, 12:06 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan View Post
The Jets suck because they have bad team defense and awful goaltending. It's not because of players like Wheeler.
Honestly, not that their defense is good, but it's mostly just the goaltending. Looking at the past three seasons, they get about 50% of shots taken, they're about average in possession, they're below average but not basement-dwelling in shots against per 60, but they're right around the bottom five in save percentage at even strength and on the PK. With just average goaltending, that's a solid playoff team. With good goaltending? Could be a cup contender.

I think Mason can be at least average for them, so that bodes well.
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Old 07-16-2017, 12:25 PM   #17
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Sean Monahan is grossly underated in the league
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Old 07-16-2017, 12:39 PM   #18
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Sean Monahan is grossly underated in the league
I thought the same thing, I went back a few times to make sure I didn't miss him. I tried to understand the method used, but I was lacking sleep and lost interest.
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Old 07-16-2017, 05:49 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Plaedo View Post
They have Frolik as a "borderline star in the right environment"

And it's just what the stats say I suppose. Here is the method they used:

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/07/13...to-game-score/
Third on the list of best forwards since 2011 is Tyler Seguin. I still can't believe that Chiapet traded him for.... well.. I think Boston has nothing left.
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Old 07-16-2017, 07:06 PM   #20
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Wow Bruins have three Top Tier 1 "Year-end award candidates"

So three of the Top 7 are Bruins?
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