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Old 07-15-2017, 07:16 AM   #1
Gaudfather
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Default Will Backlund get extended this offseason?

This discussion started on the Lazar thread and I thought it deserved its own.

Treliving has talked about wanting to extend Backs this offseason.

The deal that Tampa just did with Tyler Johnson sets the best template in my mind. TJ has shown more offensive prowess (at times) than Backs, but Backs is a better defensive centre. But Backs is also two years older.

However I think a six year extension at $5MM AAV would be the right approach. Would Backs bite on something like this or would he be tempted to try FA next year?
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Old 07-15-2017, 07:25 AM   #2
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We need Backs!!! A solid two way center is a necessity on any Cup winner. Have to have the shutdown guy. I think your $5x6 would be great though it might take a bit more than that. I think he would like to stay in Cgy so we just need to get it done.
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Old 07-15-2017, 07:34 AM   #3
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It really depends on how much he is looking for. I like him at 5M per, anything more and given Bennett due to break out and how good Janko plays defensively I think you deal him.
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Old 07-15-2017, 07:34 AM   #4
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I would imagine getting an extension done sooner would likely be cheaper
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Old 07-15-2017, 07:59 AM   #5
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5x5.5 sounds about right.
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Old 07-15-2017, 08:12 AM   #6
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Wasn't there a comment from flames mgmt a while back that it was a priority? Assuming Bennett gets signed for more than a year the whole core of the team except Backlund is locked down.

Flames basically just need depth forwards and a backup goalie next offseason and have 19.8 mil in cap room open less whatever Bennett gets and thats without escalator which will probably cancel Bennett out and then some. So should be easy to accomodate Backlund and still give the team room to look at adding a major forward piece if they want.
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Old 07-15-2017, 08:15 AM   #7
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It really depends on how much he is looking for. I like him at 5M per, anything more and given Bennett due to break out and how good Janko plays defensively I think you deal him.
I do believe that he is getting more recognition league wide, but I have always thought of him as a player who is undervalued outside of the Flames. I just don't think that he will demand much of a return in a trade.
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Old 07-15-2017, 08:21 AM   #8
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I think trading him would be foolish. He is the best two way forward on the team and irreplaceable from my perspective short of acquiring an allstar. He is a selke candidate 50-60 point centre in his prime.... Just not a player teams willingly trade.

Even if Janko is a great player it will take years to develop the defensive skills backlund has which only come with experience imo. Makes way more sense to move Bennett to the wing, play Janko on the 4th line, or trade one of them (hopefully not).
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Old 07-15-2017, 08:33 AM   #9
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If Backlund becomes redundant, you consider trading him then. You do not trade him on the expectation that he will become redundant.
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Old 07-15-2017, 08:55 AM   #10
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I agree that 5 X 5.5 sounds about right

But considering his age, and the fact that he bleeds red and should be a lifer, I would propose an 8 year deal.

Usually, longer deals mean a higher AAV, but in this case, because it would take him to age 36, it should mean a lower AAV (those last 3 years should be worth less).

I would propose 8 by $4m (it might take $4.5m).

That would bring down the AAV to a fantastic number, and make him a Flame for life (which he should be).

There is risk with having to pay him $4m when he is 36 of course, but it is well worth it because we get him cheaper now, while we're competing, and hopefully $4m isn't as punitive 9 years from now.
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Old 07-15-2017, 09:26 AM   #11
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As long as he's still good to go when the season starts. I mean, depending on the complexity of the procedure he could be a bit sore??

Either way weird thing to speculate about...
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Old 07-15-2017, 09:29 AM   #12
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I agree that 5 X 5.5 sounds about right

But considering his age, and the fact that he bleeds red and should be a lifer, I would propose an 8 year deal.

Usually, longer deals mean a higher AAV, but in this case, because it would take him to age 36, it should mean a lower AAV (those last 3 years should be worth less).

I would propose 8 by $4m (it might take $4.5m).

That would bring down the AAV to a fantastic number, and make him a Flame for life (which he should be).

There is risk with having to pay him $4m when he is 36 of course, but it is well worth it because we get him cheaper now, while we're competing, and hopefully $4m isn't as punitive 9 years from now.
5x$5.5 + $27.5M

8x$4M=$32M.

That would mean getting him for his last 3 years for $4.5M. That's not going to happen.

The nature of signing UFA's is that you need to may may more than a player is worth for his later years. Assuming Backs wants maximum dollars (which is by no means a certainty), he'll command 8 years at at least $6M. Because he would get that on the open market easily in a weak UFA year

I expect he'll take less, or at least I hope so, he's an important part of the team going forward.

But I can't imagine there is any deal which starts with a $4M AAV. $5.5M would be the least amount I can see him signing for.
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Old 07-15-2017, 09:44 AM   #13
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5x$5.5 + $27.5M

8x$4M=$32M.

That would mean getting him for his last 3 years for $4.5M. That's not going to happen.

The nature of signing UFA's is that you need to may may more than a player is worth for his later years. Assuming Backs wants maximum dollars (which is by no means a certainty), he'll command 8 years at at least $6M. Because he would get that on the open market easily in a weak UFA year

I expect he'll take less, or at least I hope so, he's an important part of the team going forward.

But I can't imagine there is any deal which starts with a $4M AAV. $5.5M would be the least amount I can see him signing for.
The benefit for us is he cannot get 8 years on the open market in the current CBA.
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Old 07-15-2017, 10:04 AM   #14
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I do believe that he is getting more recognition league wide, but I have always thought of him as a player who is undervalued outside of the Flames. I just don't think that he will demand much of a return in a trade.
Backlund remains somewhat unknown by casual fans league wide, but he is no longer a secret to any who study the game.
I doubt there is any GMs who do not know his name and value.

If you listened to that Gaudrea audio clip "Spitting Chicklets" even those characters make note of Backlund and Johnny also sung his praises.
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Old 07-15-2017, 10:08 AM   #15
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Backlund will retire a flame. He bleeds the flaming c. I am not worried about him signing at all.
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Old 07-15-2017, 10:15 AM   #16
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As important as he is, I'd personally like to see him replicate the season he just had before forking over a ton of money to him. It's only during the last 2 seasons where he's really come into his own, and been able to play full seasons.

Credit to him, but it wasn't too long ago most people considered him made of glass. Before a big commitment is made to him, it might be a good idea to wait it out and see how he performs as the season goes along.
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Old 07-15-2017, 10:31 AM   #17
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You don't give players like Backlund 8 year deals as he's not a first line player and he is coming off what may be his career season. He's a good player and great guy but I feel like fans are going a little overboard here.
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Old 07-15-2017, 10:41 AM   #18
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Would love to get this done this offseason. A 5 year deal with an AAV of 5.5-5.75 makes sense. Get it done Tre!
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Old 07-15-2017, 10:44 AM   #19
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I love Backes and am really hoping he finishes out his career in calgary...

that said, i doubt BT offers him, or anyone for that matter, and 8 year contract. Especially guys on the downside of their 20's... offering a 22 year old a 8 year contract i can see (say a Tkachuk if he keeps on his current trajectory), but not someone at 27-28

a 5.5 aav over 5 or 6 years should land you pretty close
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Old 07-15-2017, 10:49 AM   #20
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You don't give players like Backlund 8 year deals as he's not a first line player and he is coming off what may be his career season. He's a good player and great guy but I feel like fans are going a little overboard here.
Great points.

Presumably you go 8 years if the AVV is low enough.

Or you go 8 years if that is what he needs to get to sign with us and the Flames consider him an important part of their SC chances.

It's hard to imagine a scenario where Backlund leaving increases the Fames SC chances.

He handles the tough minutes on the shut down line. Players like him are often underrated by fans but seldom by GM's.

While extending him now is indeed risky, if you wait and he has a great first half, he might be a difficult extend then as he gets closer to UFA.

While I understand he might have a pretty tight tie to Calgary, lots of similar players change clubs in those same circumstances. I wouldn't bet on him giving away the farm to stay here.

But my gut reaction is that he will sign a 6 year deal for about $5.5M- 5.75M. And that's less than he would get as a UFA if he duplicates his year.
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