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Old 05-17-2017, 05:21 PM   #6481
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Out of curiosity, what were your predictions on the Monahan and Gaudreau contracts?
I thought the Tarasenko contract was the comparable for Gaudreau, so I thought he would get 7.5 million on an 8 year contract.

Monahan I thought would be around 6.5 million on an 8 year contract.

Neither of those guys have the leverage that Connor has though. I suspect the Oilers might be able to sign him to a 5 year deal for about 15.4 percent of the value of a 80 million dollar cap (same deal as Crosby's second) which would be around 12.2 million a year. I suspect if they want an 8 year deal it would have to be similar to the first 8 years of Crosby's third deal which would put Connor at 13.5.
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Old 05-17-2017, 05:39 PM   #6482
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regardless what he takes, oiler fans will say he took less to stay with a future dynasty who are on the cusp of multiple cups.
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Old 05-17-2017, 05:44 PM   #6483
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Oilers know McDavid will get offer sheeted if he makes it to RFA, that's why they plan on extending him before that and publicly stated that McDavid is priority and Draisatl comes after.
Ya, and this type of talk leads me to believe that they've got something ready to sign with mcdavid and are waiting for July 1. If chiarelli can wrap these two contracts this summer without much fuss at under 20, it will be a major win.

If it's not ready to be signed though, and back channel talks have not yet begun, you have to wonder why he's talking like that. There are a lot of reasons why mcdavid may not want to sign until 2018. And you have to pay respect to your playoff MVP. Delicate line to walk. Better to just shut your mouth about priorities at this point, I would think.
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Old 05-17-2017, 05:50 PM   #6484
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I have a very keen interest in organizational management and the Oilers improved dramatically when Chiarelli took over. I think he is the MVP in that organization at the moment.
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Old 05-17-2017, 05:56 PM   #6485
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I have a very keen interest in organizational management and the Oilers improved dramatically when Chiarelli took over. I think he is the MVP in that organization at the moment.
Hard not to improve. Impossible, actually. Still seems pretty meh to me. Not really good by any means. No good? Ya, that's what I mean to say.
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Old 05-17-2017, 06:00 PM   #6486
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Hard not to improve. Impossible, actually. Still seems pretty meh to me. Not really good by any means. No good? Ya, that's what I mean to say.
And I mean to say other things, I think he has the capacity to improve that team in ways that Oilers Management have failed to do for so many years.

I like your post though.
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Old 05-17-2017, 06:20 PM   #6487
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If the Oilers get him for 8yrs 100 million I'd say they did a good job. Anything less than that and Mcdavids agent is an idiot.

If I'm his agent I also don't offer a discount for RFA years. He is a top 3 player in the league right now and should be paid as such.
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Old 05-17-2017, 07:07 PM   #6488
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If the Oilers get him for 8yrs 100 million I'd say they did a good job. Anything less than that and Mcdavids agent is an idiot.

If I'm his agent I also don't offer a discount for RFA years. He is a top 3 player in the league right now and should be paid as such.
It's incredible to me that that is possible! I think you're right on there, $100 million dollar man. I can see the headlines. Gross.
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Old 05-17-2017, 08:46 PM   #6489
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Based on Crosbys second contract, McDavid should be in the 13-13.25 million AVG
Exactly, Crosby could have got a bit more in an offer sheet but not much. This idea that he took a big discount is nonsense.

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Hard not to improve. Impossible, actually. Still seems pretty meh to me. Not really good by any means. No good? Ya, that's what I mean to say.
I'd like to see a 4 way comparison. Lowe, MacT, Chiapet and a potato.
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Old 05-17-2017, 09:30 PM   #6490
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$97 million 8 years book it
Then they need to sign dr d and cap hell commences
Just like the Blackhawks with their high paid 2 forwards
And unlike the Blackhawks they don't have a Norris winning defencemen signed for $5.5m per year

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Old 05-17-2017, 10:22 PM   #6491
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I thought the Tarasenko contract was the comparable for Gaudreau, so I thought he would get 7.5 million on an 8 year contract.

Monahan I thought would be around 6.5 million on an 8 year contract.

Neither of those guys have the leverage that Connor has though. I suspect the Oilers might be able to sign him to a 5 year deal for about 15.4 percent of the value of a 80 million dollar cap (same deal as Crosby's second) which would be around 12.2 million a year. I suspect if they want an 8 year deal it would have to be similar to the first 8 years of Crosby's third deal which would put Connor at 13.5.
That could be possible.

I think Draisaitl will get $7.5 and McDavid likely $12.5.

I've brought this up before, but top end players at the time of Crosby's contract were taking a higher percentage of the cap then they are now. I think McDavid will be the highest paid player in the NHL, but I don't think he goes way over the top of everyone else.
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Old 05-17-2017, 10:58 PM   #6492
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I have a very keen interest in organizational management and the Oilers improved dramatically when Chiarelli took over. I think he is the MVP in that organization at the moment.
Ya, winning the lotto to get Mcdavid took skill . No way. Mcdavid drew the FAs and college signings in. Even MacT could have put this team together. Chiarelli was just lucky at the right time.

If Mcdiavid doesn't fall into their lap his job doesn't become so easy.

I don't think they would have traded Hall and Fa's would still be very weary to sign so readily.
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Old 05-17-2017, 11:10 PM   #6493
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I think Draisaitl will get $7.5 and McDavid likely $12.5.
You're probably pretty close on both of those, I'm thinking 13M for McJesus. I've seen some oiler fans saying he'll take a big discount and sign for 10M, can't see that happening. RFA years mean nothing when half the league would offer sheet him at 14M x 5years if he wants to wait.
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Old 05-17-2017, 11:46 PM   #6494
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Ya, winning the lotto to get Mcdavid took skill . No way. Mcdavid drew the FAs and college signings in. Even MacT could have put this team together. Chiarelli was just lucky at the right time.

If Mcdiavid doesn't fall into their lap his job doesn't become so easy.

I don't think they would have traded Hall and Fa's would still be very weary to sign so readily.
i agree with this...

Maybe Chia is decent; as someone else said, hard to be any worse than the previous management team.

I mean just look at McDavid's first year... doing respectable for the 45 games he was in... he gets injured and boom, Oilers are a lottery team... Again?! I mean that's just an awful organization. They finished worse than Calgary that had one of the worst goalie tandems in the NHL...

Maybe Draistl has developed to a point they'd be able to bail water if McDavid is out, but all you have to do is look at the % of goals that McDavid is a part of to realize he's is disproportionately driving that offense and consequently that team's success.

So far, it seems like Chia's claim to fame is joining a team with a generational talent on it...

i'll wait and see what happens with the cap issues looming before making any judgement on Chia
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Old 05-18-2017, 12:03 AM   #6495
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I don't think there is a chance that McDavid will remain unsigned long enough to sign an offer sheet. The max ask is interesting, however. There should be some pressure on him to start off with the max. If not him, then who in the league?

I do think he ends up around ~100 million for 8 years or so. Pricey, but pretty fair.

Draisaitl will be the more interesting number. I also like to think he ends up around 7.5, but depending on how long that contract ends up, it might be pushed into the 8.5 range. I would anticipate that the Oilers would want to lock-up their 1-2 punch for the full 8 years.

Either way, neither of those contracts will really hurt them. It does make things tighter, so they have to find a way to unload Eberle and RNH, and that Lucic contract will start becoming a real issue. Edmonton is probably the most intriguing team to follow with respect to contracts.

As have been mentioned, there really is some animosity towards Edmonton with respect to offer-sheets, and they are perceived as the team that eliminated those 2nd contracts. I just think that no player of note off their roster will remain unsigned long enough to become eligible to sign an offer sheet. I do think that other teams - especially within the division - will use that tactic to help drive up the pay-roll. 4 first overalls, generational player... pretty sure there will be some teams that not only want an ounce of flesh for how lucky the Oilers were, but also want to make sure they have a tougher time building a team. We already saw it a few years ago when San Jose signed Hjalmarsson to one for exactly that purpose.

I just can't think of anyone that the Oilers would leave exposed to that situation of note. Luckily, they have done enough of that with their own signings
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Old 05-18-2017, 03:16 AM   #6496
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I don't think there is a chance that McDavid will remain unsigned long enough to sign an offer sheet. The max ask is interesting, however. There should be some pressure on him to start off with the max. If not him, then who in the league?

I do think he ends up around ~100 million for 8 years or so. Pricey, but pretty fair.

Draisaitl will be the more interesting number. I also like to think he ends up around 7.5, but depending on how long that contract ends up, it might be pushed into the 8.5 range. I would anticipate that the Oilers would want to lock-up their 1-2 punch for the full 8 years.

Either way, neither of those contracts will really hurt them. It does make things tighter, so they have to find a way to unload Eberle and RNH, and that Lucic contract will start becoming a real issue. Edmonton is probably the most intriguing team to follow with respect to contracts.

As have been mentioned, there really is some animosity towards Edmonton with respect to offer-sheets, and they are perceived as the team that eliminated those 2nd contracts. I just think that no player of note off their roster will remain unsigned long enough to become eligible to sign an offer sheet. I do think that other teams - especially within the division - will use that tactic to help drive up the pay-roll. 4 first overalls, generational player... pretty sure there will be some teams that not only want an ounce of flesh for how lucky the Oilers were, but also want to make sure they have a tougher time building a team. We already saw it a few years ago when San Jose signed Hjalmarsson to one for exactly that purpose.

I just can't think of anyone that the Oilers would leave exposed to that situation of note. Luckily, they have done enough of that with their own signings
I would say another potential offer sheet guy next summer if they do not get him done this summer is Nurse. I would offer him a potential 3 year deal and give up a 2nd round pick. 10.5 million over 3 years.

I do think there will be pressure on McDavid to sign for max dollars. Not sure if bobby orr cares, but there will be pressure.
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Old 05-18-2017, 05:00 AM   #6497
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Orr should ask for a "show me" contract, as in show me you can build a team to make it worth it to live in that craphole for 7-8 months a year.

3 year contract:

$8.0
$11.0
$14.0

$11m cap hit = good for the oilers
$14m qualifying offer for last RFA year = good for Conner
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Old 05-18-2017, 05:37 AM   #6498
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I have a very keen interest in organizational management and the Oilers improved dramatically when Chiarelli took over. I think he is the MVP in that organization at the moment.
And he's not even there if not for McDavid I'm sure. If the Oilers didn't win that final lottery draft, does Chia really leave Boston for Edmonton? I highly doubt it. Even the new, more competent management is a result of the McDavid effect, fluking out in that draft lottery really changed everything for that organization. It's the only reason they're not still in the toilet right now.
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Old 05-18-2017, 07:01 AM   #6499
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And he's not even there if not for McDavid I'm sure. If the Oilers didn't win that final lottery draft, does Chia really leave Boston for Edmonton? I highly doubt it. Even the new, more competent management is a result of the McDavid effect, fluking out in that draft lottery really changed everything for that organization. It's the only reason they're not still in the toilet right now.
Chiarelli was fired by the Bruins so being unemployed it's possible he still may have interest in the Oilers as I can't recall at the time if there were other positions open.
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Old 05-18-2017, 07:08 AM   #6500
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Ah yes, you're right. Still though, what GM with his pedigree signs on to that Taylor Hall-led, old boys club mess without some bright light at the end of the tunnel? He got the job shortly after the Oilers won the McDavid lottery draft, you gotta think that was a hugely attractive perk to going there.
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