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Old 07-16-2017, 07:14 PM   #61
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Really hoping for a 5-6 year deal in the $4.5-$5M per range
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Old 07-17-2017, 09:38 AM   #62
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Maybe during the year
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Old 07-17-2017, 12:17 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe View Post
I would actually say that Treliving hasn't gone all-in yet. Smith has been the exception to the rule this off-season, but desperate times called for desperate measures.

The rest of his moves have involved either trading picks for established but young players (Stone, Hamilton, Hamonic, Lazar) or trading older players for picks (Glencross, Hudler) or trading older prospects for slightly younger prospects/picks (Granlund and Baertschi).

Smith is the definite exception. Elliott was SUPPOSED to work out and stick around a number of years as well last year.

I would classify 'all-in' when a team starts trading futures for a 'win now' mentality. Calgary I believe is still hovering around 'be a favorite for the playoffs and try to make noise'.

I do agree that trading Backlund away does indeed go against the grain there, either for a 'win-now' or a 'win in a few seasons' standpoint.

It will be interesting to see how Treliving adjusts to a compete 'win now' mode.
Treliving has a good job of using picks to supplement his core, but I would argue that it is indeed "win now" mode for the current core guys.

My caveat being that "win now" is a 3-4 maybe even 5 year window.

Giordano isn't going to last more then a few years.
The D-core contracts mostly expire in 3-4 years and then we will be talking increased pay for potentially flat or declining play.
Monahan and Gaudreau will likely be at the most productive point in their careers over the next 3-4 seasons. If they don't win with Gaudreau in the next 5 years on a great contract, they probably aren't going to win with him when he gets paid almost double for the same or lesser production on his next contract.
Backlund could start to fade in 3-4 seasons.


Now, the Flames can easily make moves to change their core over the next 3-4 seasons. Guys could emerge or guys like Bennett and Tkachuk may go supernova. Calgary could be in win now mode for 8-10 year. Maybe more.

But in terms of winning with ALL of the guys that are currently their best players:
Gaudreau
Monahan
Backlund
Giordano
Hamilton
Brodie

If the Flames are going to do something with this entire group of guys, they have to do it in the next 3-4 years IMO. From 2017-2019 they have only 3 picks in the top 3 rounds of the draft. So I think they are essentially "all-in" with this current group.
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Old 07-17-2017, 12:31 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by Oil Stain View Post
Monahan and Gaudreau will likely be at the most productive point in their careers over the next 3-4 seasons. If they don't win with Gaudreau in the next 5 years on a great contract, they probably aren't going to win with him when he gets paid almost double for the same or lesser production on his next contract.
If we don't win under Monahan and Gaudreau (meaning they're not elite level players capable of winning when it counts) will they be due for a massive pay raise?

Its an interesting point... how many non-cup winners are making north of $10m per?
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Old 07-17-2017, 12:34 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by Oil Stain View Post
...But in terms of winning with ALL of the guys that are currently their best players:
Gaudreau
Monahan
Backlund
Giordano
Backlund
Hamilton
Brodie...
You missed a whole bunch of players on your "best players" list:

Gaudreau
Monahan
Backlund
Giordano
Backlund
Brodie
Monahan
Hamilton
Gaudreau
Brodie
Backlund
Giordano
Giordano
Monahan
Hamilton
Gaudreau

And I haven't even included Tkachuk and Hamonic.
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Old 07-17-2017, 12:46 PM   #66
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And I haven't even included Tkachuk and Hamonic.
Hamonic hasn't played a game for the Flames yet. Not going to say he's a core guy.

I didn't include Tkachuk because he's not really part of that "window" the Flames currently have IMO.

Some of those guys may be moving on in 3-4 seasons.

Tkachuk will likely be around for another 8-9 years at least.
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:22 PM   #67
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Really hoping for a 5-6 year deal in the $4.5-$5M per range
That's pretty far from what he would get as a UFA.

Depends on how much of a discount he would give for signing up early.

As a UFA I expect his AAV would start with $6M. Especially in a poor UFA year.

Now Tre has gotten some pretty good deals before, so who knows. But this is Backlund's big contract, so I don't expect he'll give it all away.
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:32 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by rohara66 View Post
If we don't win under Monahan and Gaudreau (meaning they're not elite level players capable of winning when it counts) will they be due for a massive pay raise?

Its an interesting point... how many non-cup winners are making north of $10m per?
I think at the moment, just Carey Price and Mcdavid when their contracts kick in. I expect guys like Tavares and Karlsson to join that group shortly.

Kessel got paid $8,000,000 in 2013 without a cup and he had a few top ten scoring finishes, so I expect it to be well above that.

I think its pretty possible that if Gaudreau keeps finishing around top ten or twenty in scoring that his contract will be looking like easily $10+ per season by the time 2023 rolls around. Then signing a guy for that kind of dough from 29-36 is a more dicey proposition then his latest contract.

So I think if the Flames are going to win with Gaudreau, it's more likely to happen on this contract, then his next contract.

And if the Flames are going to win with Gaudreau they should definitely sign Backlund.
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:42 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Oil Stain View Post
Hamonic hasn't played a game for the Flames yet. Not going to say he's a core guy.

I didn't include Tkachuk because he's not really part of that "window" the Flames currently have IMO.

Some of those guys may be moving on in 3-4 seasons.

Tkachuk will likely be around for another 8-9 years at least.
The Flames gave up 3 solid draft picks for Hamonic. He is part of the core
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:43 PM   #70
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That's pretty far from what he would get as a UFA.

Depends on how much of a discount he would give for signing up early.

As a UFA I expect his AAV would start with $6M. Especially in a poor UFA year.

Now Tre has gotten some pretty good deals before, so who knows. But this is Backlund's big contract, so I don't expect he'll give it all away.
I don't think Backs has earned $6M per season on the open market yet but if he has another career season then perhaps he will get that?
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:45 PM   #71
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I don't think Backs has earned $6M per season on the open market yet but if he has another career season then perhaps he will get that?
If he was a UFA this past season , someone would have given him $6M or more, IMO.


"Earned" often doesn't mean much come UFA time.
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:49 PM   #72
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If he was a UFA this past season , someone would have given him $6M or more, IMO.


"Earned" often doesn't mean much come UFA time.
I don't agree. Bonino got $4.1M and has had arguably a better career than Backlund and is very comparable to him. I don't see a team giving $6M for a forward that has 1 50pt season under his belt 10 years after being drafted regardless of how good his 2way game is.
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:58 PM   #73
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I don't agree. Bonino got $4.1M and has had arguably a better career than Backlund and is very comparable to him. I don't see a team giving $6M for a forward that has 1 50pt season under his belt 10 years after being drafted regardless of how good his 2way game is.
I don't think Bonino is any way the defensive player Backlund is.

But like all things, time will tell.
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Old 07-17-2017, 04:03 PM   #74
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Depends on the term of course, but I could see Backlund sign in or around the Frolik/Brouwer numbers (4x4.6)
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Old 07-17-2017, 06:49 PM   #75
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Depends on the term of course, but I could see Backlund sign in or around the Frolik/Brouwer numbers (4x4.6)
Backlund coming in at anything resembling 6/$36M is a win for the Flames. A number beginning with a 4 only happens if Backs tears both his MCLs.
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Old 07-17-2017, 06:54 PM   #76
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Depends on the term of course, but I could see Backlund sign in or around the Frolik/Brouwer numbers (4x4.6)
If Backlund matches or beats last year it'll be at least 5.25 per.
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Old 07-18-2017, 10:17 AM   #77
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Steinberg on an article up today on FlamesNation is suggesting 5-6 year extension around $6MM for Backs.

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. 2. A Mikael Backlund extension

Going back to late February, I took an early look at what a contract extension might look like for Backlund. Well, now it’s July, Backlund is going into the final year of his deal, and he’s eligible for an extension anytime. I understand wanting to get this offseason’s work done first, but I still think it makes a lot of sense for the Flames to get Backlund locked up long term prior to the season starting.

Based on what he’s done the last few seasons, it has become painstakingly clear Backlund is a core player and deserving of a commensurate contract. He was the team’s best centre by a fairly large margin last season and was the driving force on one of the NHL’s top lines. With 22 goals and 53 points in 81 games, Backlund was productive and his underlying outputs drove home the MVP-quality campaign he put together.



Backlund was a top five player in every single metric above while shouldering some of the heaviest defensive responsibilities in the league. For him to generate zone time and produce offence like he did was quite the feat and it allowed him to finally start getting some league-wide recognition.

The most encouraging thing about Backlund is how he’s improved in each and every one of his seven NHL seasons, which leads you to believe there is still more for Backlund to accomplish. Even if he’s close to reaching his plateau, we’re still talking about a player who was fourth in Selke Trophy voting with a solid track record of consistent two-way play. Why wouldn’t the Flames get a deal done as soon as possible?

I’ll take that question a little further. As it stands right now, Backlund can make a pretty solid case for a long-term deal (five or six years) in and around the $6 million range annually, give or take a few hundred thousand. If Calgary pushes this into next season and Backlund is in the midst of another Selke-worthy season, though, it stands to reason he’ll only gain leverage. If I’m the Flames, I get an extension done this summer to get it taken care of and to get some cap/cost certainty for the next number of years.
https://flamesnation.ca/2017/07/18/t...on-storylines/
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Old 07-18-2017, 10:23 AM   #78
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Steinberg on an article up today on FlamesNation is suggesting 5-6 year extension around $6MM for Backs.

https://flamesnation.ca/2017/07/18/t...on-storylines/
Quote:
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"...it has become painstakingly clear Backlund is a core player and deserving of a commensurate contract."
Exactly right.
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Old 07-18-2017, 10:49 AM   #79
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Steinberg needs to look at the numbers the team can afford. If you pay Backlund $6M, that puts the cap situation in a pinch.

Right now the Flames have about $4-4.5M to sign Bennett to an extension. That is already taking into consideration that the team is going with Jankowski and Kulak as their extra players, and them eating up just $1.7M between them, leaving ~$1-1.3M as a buffer for the season (all numbers from CapFriendly). So depending on value and term, what they can pay Backlund is up in the air.

As it sits we only have Stajan and Versteeg as salaries coming off the books next season. If the Flames get lucky and can lock Bennett up at $4.5M for 6 years, then they can take a shot at Backlund for $6M. If they can't lock up Bennett, they have to be concerned about the contract negotiations down the line, and that number going higher. They must also recognize that Tkachuk, Lazar and Ferland will be needing new contracts in two years time, and that has to be taken into consideration, as no major contracts are scheduled to come off the books. The only hope for some flexibility in salaries if to have Gillies and Parsons jump up and take the reigns in net. That will provide some cost control for an extra year or three in the crease.

The approach I would take at this is to try and get Bennett long term on that $4.5M contract, then hope the salaries of Stajan and Versteeg ($4.9M combined) will cover the cost of new contracts for Backlund and Tkachuk. So try and get Backlund to sign for his current hit plus that of Versteeg ($5.325) and hope you get Tkachuk done with his and Stajan's money ($4.05M) on a long term or a bridge. That is assuming you can get bridge contracts for Jankowski and continue to feed cheap young players in to fill the holes. Backlund at $6M just doesn't seem like it would work when you project where the young guys should be headed. Every dollar counts, especially when you have a lot of good talent.
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Old 07-18-2017, 10:53 AM   #80
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Guessing $5-5.25m a year for 5 years with full NTC the first few years and a modified NTC for the final 2 years. Capitalize a bit on Back's love for Calgary - give him some security and decision-making veto power in exchange for a lower AAV.
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