Russia invades Ukraine

[skudr248]

Originally Posted by Chingas

Has Belarus been a proxy state this whole time? Or did they cower as to not suffer the same fate?

Everybody knows Belarus and it's little puppet is Russia's little bitch and nobody even cares at the end of the day to give a #### to even bother mentioning their name.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Chingas

Has Belarus been a proxy state this whole time? Or did they cower as to not suffer the same fate?

Basically just ruled by a Putin friendly ruthless dictator

[gvitaly]

It seems that Russian ground troops are already in Kharkov. I hope those are just false reports.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Don't judge all ethnically Russians based on one person. The opinions in Russia vary.

Fair. I am acquaintances with a few Russian families here in the Vancouver area and my daughter has bonded with their children. I am not sure why, but over the past 10-15 years, there are a lot of new Canadians in the Vancouver area from Russia. I can't say that I have ever had a negative interaction with any of them.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

It seems that Russian ground troops are already in Kharkov. I hope those are just false reports.

According to this tweet, this Russian tank was destroyed by there

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496742510655381506

[Manhattanboy]

UN Security Council: Thoughts and prayers. Useless institution.

Clearly NATO has no intention to do anything meaningful at this point to support Ukraine.

Lots of questions as to Putin’s end game plans, both in Ukraine and beyond.

I suspect in 48 hours the Ukrainian military will have surrendered and a week from now Ukrainian government officials will be in Russian prisons and a puppet government installed.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Krovikan

According to this tweet, this Russian tank was destroyed by there

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496742510655381506

Well that's footage of Russian troops in Kharkov(supposedly)

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496743582107062273

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Chingas

Has Belarus been a proxy state this whole time? Or did they cower as to not suffer the same fate?

Proxy state. There were even rumours a few months ago that Lukashenko was negotiating for full integration into the Russian Federation as an autonomous republic. They have already been working on completely integrating their markets.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by Bunk

If Ukraine falls and there is timid response from NATO and the west, the Baltics are next in line in Putin's maniacal reclamation of the empire. Probably under the guise of "liberating" Russian minorities in countries like Estonia.

My mother's whole side is Estonian. She despises Russia with the fire of a thousand suns.

Yeah, I've known quite a few Estonians well, and same thing: really, really hate Russia, and believe that there was a forced attempt to destroy Estonian culture by moving large numbers of Russians there during the Soviet days. At one point speaking Estonian was even banned.

Pretty amazing little country, actually. Proud, modern and productive people.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Well that's footage of Russian troops in Kharkov(supposedly)

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496743582107062273

Assuming this is Russian armour, trunks and soldiers, this definitely seems like just outside Kharkiv (50.054719, 36.360583)

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496742808358686723

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Krovikan

Assuming this is Russian armour, trunks and soldiers, this definitely seems like just outside Kharkiv (50.054719, 36.360583)

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496742808358686723

yeah I saw that picture as well and a couple more. That's definitely in Kharkov, I've been there. I'm just not a military expert to differentiate the two armies. They both use about the same equipment.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

yeah I saw that picture as well and a couple more. That's definitely in Kharkov, I've been there. I'm just not a military expert to differentiate the two armies. They both use about the same equipment.

Only one side has full control of the air and so can have its tanks sit in the open

[CaptainCrunch]

This thing is going to be over in the next few days with the rate that the Russian attack is going.



Really Nato and the UN should have mobilized on this weeks ago and at least NATO should have re-enforced with heavy units. Instead the Ukraine Military is getting swamped under.


1) Frankly by the time the consultations and debate with the UN, which won't matter with China holding a hammer with a Veto vote, so any military action by the UN won't happen. And even if it does, it will be far too late. NATO can try to respond, but that will take days that Ukraine doesn't have.



By the time any action happens, Russia will have complete control of the air, any deep water ports that Nato needs will be under Russian control. They will dig in their troops and re-enforce over a short logistics line. Also pretty much any airfield will also be under Russian control. That literally leaves out any deployment of heavy units except by road. The US and Great Britain would have to send units through Poland or Germany through Austria and Hungry via road, and by the time they arrived they would have to fight through air power and long range artillary. Also what's problimatic is that the sea borne re-enforcements would go through Poland through a port like Gdansk, but with Russian Aircraft in Belarus, they would be able to interdict any shipment of heavy weapons, and formations that are needed in Ukraine.



Ukraine maybe has 150 functional modern battle tanks like the T-84 with another few hundred older T-80's 72's and 64. The Russian's have a huge advantage in heavy formation numbers.



I guess NATO could deploy their rapid response force. But a rapid response force is really light infantry troops and their transport aircraft and by the time that could be deployed which by the NATO handbook is a day there won't be any airfields.



Any battle now wouldn't be a battle to defend Ukraine, but to Liberate it fighting a entrenched enemy with air and artillery superiority.


2) We can talk about a nuclear option or warning. Someone mentioned detonating a small device to warn the Russians to back off or they'll get more. But frankly I would expect that any detonation of a nuclear device on Russian Soil would instantly trigger a nuclear response by Russia at the country that fires it. The last thing we need is an escalation to a nuclear nightmare. The Russians and Americans and Brits have massive amounts of nuclear warheads. Even firing a "Warning shot" would be utter madness, especially with Putin on the other side.


3) We can talk about what Canada should do, but frankly outside of sanctions I don't even see how we'd be any use in a modern battlefield. Our armed forces are too far gone, to old and obsolete. Yes our Soldiers are top of the line. But this isn't the taliban or ISIS we're fighting. This is a major military power, with advanced weapons and aircraft wed be facing. A Canadian contribution wouldn't last long or be all that useful. I mean the first and most likely contribution would likely be a squadron of CF-18's. Some transport and surveillance craft. Navy wise I think we were looking at deploying a frigate. But we don't have the transportation ability to send tanks or AFV and NATO's going to give priority to other nations who have more advanced and modern military gear. So Canada is just going to have to look at economic levers and Putin doesn't give a crap about that.



4) The international response is going to be too late, too slow and too indecisive. The only thing that Ukraine is probably going to be able to do in the next 72 hours or so is take their military out of the field, save what they have militarily and form a insurgency movement. The problem is that the Russian's historically aren't known to be all the concerned with things like civilian casualties or honoring things like the Geneva Convention, so its likely that any action by an insurgent group will lead to Russian retaliation against civilian centers.



5) If we don't think that China wasn't informed by Putin about this, or that they aren't watching this with a ton of interest, we're fooling ourselves. The problem for China is that while they have upgraded their navy, and added power projection in their own sea with carriers and long range ground based aviation and missiles. They don't really want a confrontation with the US Navy. However if China is interested in resources, they won't even bother with Taiwan, they'll go straight after the Spratley's, and be happy with that.


Frankly as soon as Putin saw NATO with a bit of a split (Thanks Germany). No significant re-enforcements of the Ukraine Military, and the imposition of sanctions instead of a combined sanction and re-enforcement effort with heavy formations, advanced aircraft and artillery, he was going to jump at this.







just my two cents.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Only one side has full control of the air and so can have its tanks sit in the open

I'm really having a hard time understanding who is in control of what and who is doing what, starting to even see claims that the Russians are losing in the rebel-controlled area with heavy losses.

[gvitaly]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496755515367440392

This is scary. Feels like the video game red alert, except it’s not a game anymore.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Krovikan

I'm really having a hard time understanding who is in control of what and who is doing what, starting to even see claims that the Russians are losing in the rebel-controlled area with heavy losses.

Best outcome would be that the Russians underestimate the abilities of the hand held anti tank and anti air munitions and so are just driving around without thinking they are vunerable, if so they could lose a ton of armour

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Krovikan

I'm really having a hard time understanding who is in control of what and who is doing what, starting to even see claims that the Russians are losing in the rebel-controlled area with heavy losses.

Here's the possible problem with an early analysis of this war, and it is a war.


Pretty much right now because the Russians are actually really good at the combined arms approach to war. You'll see heavy casualties at the start, this is usually because the Russians move so fast that they're really outstripping any recon effort, so they'll run into ambushes. But the bottom line is that this thing is going to be all about weight. The Russians will attack everywhere hard. Their weight will crush the Ukraine enemies in the field and when the Russians achieve a break through they'll pour through it, encircle the enemy, slam the door shut on the fire sack and kill everything inside of it with air, artillery, armor and mounted infantry.



The Russians have a huge numerical advantage. The Ukrainian's don't have much to give.



Probably the best thing that the Ukrainian military can do is fight an extremely mobile war. Be willing to give up ground, don't get caught up in static defenses which means similar to the Russians in WW2, be willing to give up ground, while bleeding the lead elements of the Russian attacks, and try to find the weak spots with the Russian logistical tail.



But if the Ukrainians are fighting to defend land and territory, yeah the Russians will take casualties but eventually the weight of their numbers and far more advanced weapons will crush the Ukrainians where they stand.



I think the only hope would be for the Ukraine military to trade space for time in the hopes that help will arrive before its too late, though as I stated above, I doubt that help is coming any time soon.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496755515367440392

This is scary. Feels like the video game red alert, except it’s not a game anymore.

Just saw a report from a few minutes ago of heavy fighting on the hill around Kharkov, so there landing may not have been as smooth as they liked.

[CaptainCrunch]

The numbers


https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/how-ukr...ssia-1.5793874

n terms of manpower and weapons, the arithmetic looks grim for Ukraine. Most military experts' estimates put the number of Russian troops near Russia's border with Ukraine at more than 100,000. Russia has also moved some troops to Belarus, north of Ukraine, for military drills.
Russia's army has about 280,000 personnel and its combined armed forces total about 900,000, while its 2,840 battle tanks outnumber Ukraine's by more than three to one, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Ukraine's prime minister said a decree recently signed by Zelensky --- on priority measures to strengthen the state's defence capabilities, increase the attractiveness of military service and the gradual transition to a professional army -- would eventually bring Ukraine's armed forces to 361,000 personnel.
Although Ukraine trebled its defence budget in real terms from 2010 to 2020, its total defence expenditure in 2020 amounted to only US$4.3 billion, or one-tenth of Russia's.
Military analysts say Ukraine's anti-aircraft and anti-missile defences are weak, leaving it highly vulnerable to Russian strikes on its critical infrastructure. They say Russia would also seek to use its superiority in electronic warfare to paralyze its adversary's command and control and cut off communications with units in the field.

Ukraine's forces have gained combat experience in the Donbass region in the east of the country, where they have been fighting Russia-backed separatists since 2014, and are highly motivated.
They also have short-range air defences and anti-tank weaponry, including U.S.-supplied Javelin missiles, which would help to slow any Russian advance.
Beyond the regular army, Ukraine has volunteer territorial defence units and around 900,000 reservists. Most adult males have at least basic military training, so Russia could find itself facing stubborn and protracted resistance if it tried to capture and hold onto territory.
The military challenge would be incomparably higher than in previous wars Russia has fought since the Soviet Union's collapse, including in breakaway Chechnya in the 1990s and against Georgia in 2008.

Western countries have stepped up arms deliveries to Ukraine, but Kyiv says it needs more. The United States has ruled out sending U.S. troops to Ukraine to fight.
The United States has provided more than $2.5 billion in military aid since 2014, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, coastal patrol boats, Humvees, sniper rifles, reconnaissance drones, radar systems, night vision and radio equipment. Further supplies could include Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, small arms and boats.
Turkey has sold Kyiv several batches of Bayraktar TB2 drones, which it deployed against Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Britain supplied Ukraine with a reported 2,000 short-range anti-tank missiles in January and sent British specialists to deliver training. It has also provided Saxon armored vehicles.
Estonia said it was sending Javelin anti-armor missiles and Latvia and Lithuania are providing Stinger missiles. The Czech Republic has said it plans to donate 152mm artillery ammunition.
Germany has ruled out arms deliveries to Ukraine but is co-financing a $6-million field hospital and providing training.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Here's the possible problem with an early analysis of this war, and it is a war.


Pretty much right now because the Russians are actually really good at the combined arms approach to war. You'll see heavy casualties at the start, this is usually because the Russians move so fast that they're really outstripping any recon effort, so they'll run into ambushes. But the bottom line is that this thing is going to be all about weight. The Russians will attack everywhere hard. Their weight will crush the Ukraine enemies in the field and when the Russians achieve a break through they'll pour through it, encircle the enemy, slam the door shut on the fire sack and kill everything inside of it with air, artillery, armor and mounted infantry.



The Russians have a huge numerical advantage. The Ukrainian's don't have much to give.



Probably the best thing that the Ukrainian military can do is fight an extremely mobile war. Be willing to give up ground, don't get caught up in static defenses which means similar to the Russians in WW2, be willing to give up ground, while bleeding the lead elements of the Russian attacks, and try to find the weak spots with the Russian logistical tail.



But if the Ukrainians are fighting to defend land and territory, yeah the Russians will take casualties but eventually the weight of their numbers and far more advanced weapons will crush the Ukrainians where they stand.



I think the only hope would be for the Ukraine military to trade space for time in the hopes that help will arrive before its too late, though as I stated above, I doubt that help is coming any time soon.

well the other hope is that if the Ukranians can extract a heavy enough price Putin will face real problems at home, all the reports in Moscow are average Russians are both shocked and appaled by the invasion, if it goes well that will probably die down but if we see hundred of tick tok videos of Russian tanks exploding things could fall apart for him