Federal Election Polling Thread

[Nehkara]

New poll from Insights West from BC:

http://www.insightswest.com/news/bri...dian-campaign/

[rubecube]

^^From that article:

May posts the best momentum score of all four main party leaders with +11 (20% of British Columbians say their opinion of her has improved since the campaign began, while 9% say it has worsened), while Mulcair is at +7, Trudeau at +1 and Harper at -45 (with 50% of residents saying their opinion of the incumbent prime minister has worsened).

Yikes.

[rubecube]

Gotta give the Liberals and Trudeau some credit for hanging in there and keeping this a three-horse race. I thought they were dead in the water after C-51, but they've slowly managed to creep back up into this. The Abacus poll from last week had an interesting tidbit in it about the how the "blue Liberals" are basically dead and that it's far more likely that Liberal voters will jump to the NDP if they see that as a chance to get Harper out. The question I have is, if it stays this close, do Conservative voters (especially in Ontario and Alberta) flip to the Liberals in order to keep the NDP out of power, or do they go down with the blue ship and hope for the best?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

It's hard to imagine that happening in Alberta, just because the dynamics are such that if you want to stop the NDP, it will almost always make sense to vote for the CPC candidate, and not the Liberal. The possible exception is Edmonton.

[starseed]

Latest polls from three hundred eight have the NDP dropping 3 points in Ontario. In my riding, where NDP star Linda McQuaig (she was the one who discussed halting oil sands development) is running, her seven point lead from a week ago has evaporated. She is now statistically tied with the Liberal candidate, Bill Morneau.

I wonder if the NDP peaked early, and the Liberals can become the anti-Harper vote. Especially after Mulcair singing Thatcher's praises, back tracking on the magnitude of corporate tax hikes, alluding to austerity to not run deficits, and causing the cancellation of the women's issues debate. It's a long race!

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

It's hard to imagine that happening in Alberta, just because the dynamics are such that if you want to stop the NDP, it will almost always make sense to vote for the CPC candidate, and not the Liberal. The possible exception is Edmonton.

That's not true.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

Calgary Centre, Confederation and Skyview all have good Liberal support.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That's not true.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

Calgary Centre, Confederation and Skyview all have good Liberal support.

Right, but that really isn't my point. My point is that in order for a "strategic vote" for the Liberals over the CPC to make sense, you have to be living in a riding where the race is between the Liberals and NDP, where the CPC have no realistic shot.

The Liberals could win those ridings, on a good day--but if they do, my guess is the CPC comes second.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by starseed

Latest polls from three hundred eight have the NDP dropping 3 points in Ontario. In my riding, where NDP star Linda McQuaig (she was the one who discussed halting oil sands development) is running, her seven point lead from a week ago has evaporated. She is now statistically tied with the Liberal candidate, Bill Morneau.

I wonder if the NDP peaked early, and the Liberals can become the anti-Harper vote. Especially after Mulcair singing Thatcher's praises, back tracking on the magnitude of corporate tax hikes, alluding to austerity to not run deficits, and causing the cancellation of the women's issues debate. It's a long race!

There is so far only one poll showing a drop for the NDP in Ontario, and it's the Nanos four-week tracker. We will have to wait a bit to see if that is a trend that other pollsters pick up.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

There is so far only one poll showing a drop for the NDP in Ontario, and it's the Nanos four-week tracker. We will have to wait a bit to see if that is a trend that other pollsters pick up.

Poll averages from 308.com have NDP down 3.4 in Ontario, with most of that support (2.5%) going CPC instead.
Nationally, the NDP is down (1.5%) and the Libs are up (.8%) most of that.

What we think any of that that means (or does not mean) is open to interpretation, but the data is the data.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Right, but that really isn't my point. My point is that in order for a "strategic vote" for the Liberals over the CPC to make sense, you have to be living in a riding where the race is between the Liberals and NDP, where the CPC have no realistic shot.

The Liberals could win those ridings, on a good day--but if they do, my guess is the CPC comes second.

Right, sorry. Posting on the internet PC* is always a mistake.



*Pre-Coffee.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

It's hard to imagine that happening in Alberta, just because the dynamics are such that if you want to stop the NDP, it will almost always make sense to vote for the CPC candidate, and not the Liberal. The possible exception is Edmonton.

Right. It's definitely more applicable to Ontario CPC voters.

EDIT: Wanted to add that, even though Ontario is key, it's kind of interesting that they may not be a deciding factor this time.

[rubecube]

New Angus Reid poll out today:

NDP 37%
CPC 30%
LIB 23%
BQ 4%
GRN 4%

This one looks like it's probably an outlier in the same vein as the Mainstreet/Post Media one from a few weeks back.

Interesting graph from this one though:



If those soft Liberals bounce over to the NDP for strategic purposes, then it's hard to see the NDP not winning this election.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by rubecube

New Angus Reid poll out today:

NDP 37%
CPC 30%
LIB 23%
BQ 4%
GRN 4%

This one looks like it's probably an outlier in the same vein as the Mainstreet/Post Media one from a few weeks back.

Interesting graph from this one though:



If those soft Liberals bounce over to the NDP for strategic purposes, then it's hard to see the NDP not winning this election.

Or if the soft Conservative and NDP supporters decide to switch to Liberal, there could be a surprising election night. I have not written the Liberals out of this yet.

The NDP in particular has a history of polling higher than what the election results end up as. A lot of people support them in theory, but then get cold feet once in come time to vote. Albeit they do seem to be outgrowing that in some recent elections.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Or if the soft Conservative and NDP supporters decide to switch to Liberal, there could be a surprising election night. I have not written the Liberals out of this yet.

The NDP in particular has a history of polling higher than what the election results end up as. A lot of people support them in theory, but then get cold feet once in come time to vote. Albeit they do seem to be outgrowing that in some recent elections.

I think a lot has to go right for the Liberals to win on election night, but I'm not counting them out either. The problem for them is they're virtually dead in Quebec, BC, and Alberta, so they'd need to pretty much sweep Ontario and Atlantic Canada to even have a shot.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I think a lot has to go right for the Liberals to win on election night, but I'm not counting them out either. The problem for them is they're virtually dead in Quebec, BC, and Alberta, so they'd need to pretty much sweep Ontario and Atlantic Canada to even have a shot.

Libs will likely win only 10-12 ridings in Quebec (of 78). Bloc is dead. NDP will be the big winner there (60 maybe)? Hard to think they won't come up on top nationally as a result. Unless something major happens...

[EldrickOnIce]

A few days old, but interesting data from Abacus

About half of Conservative voters say they might change their mind before Election Day, while almost two thirds of the supporters of the Liberals and the NDP might.

How People Feel about Each Outcome

We asked people how they would feel about a variety of possible outcomes. The results show:

– 50% would be unhappy or hate a CPC majority, 39% say the same thing about a NDP majority and 43% about an LPC majority.

– 45% would be unhappy or hate a CPC minority, while 39% and 38% say that respectively about a LPC or NDP minority.

– Levels of enthusiasm for any of the outcomes tested are modest, but roughly half or more would acquiesce to any of the possible outcomes.

- See more at: http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-n....UwuMLY43.dpuf

[rubecube]

Some other interesting tidbits from AR:

Favourability

Asked whether they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of each of the party leaders, almost two-thirds of Canadians (64%) say they have an unfavourable view of Stephen Harper, while majorities express favourable views of the other leaders:

Mulcair leads the way with 63 per cent favourability
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May has the next-highest favourability rating (53%)
And Trudeau is a close third, with just over half the population (52%) expressing a favourable view of him
Fully two-fifths of respondents (41%) say their opinion of Harper is “very unfavourable,” nearly triple the total reporting a “very favourable” view of the Conservative leader (15%).

Among soft voters, nearly seven-in-ten (69%) have an unfavourable view of Harper, roughly the same number as have a favourable view of Mulcair (71%). Soft voters also tend to be more favourable toward Trudeau than the general population (61% favourable among soft voters, compared to 53% overall).

I think the last point is what sinks Harper, as it seems to indicate that the soft voters are very likely to be strategic voters.

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Or if the soft Conservative and NDP supporters decide to switch to Liberal, there could be a surprising election night. I have not written the Liberals out of this yet.

The NDP in particular has a history of polling higher than what the election results end up as. A lot of people support them in theory, but then get cold feet once in come time to vote. Albeit they do seem to be outgrowing that in some recent elections.

Your post made me curious so here are the results... doing a simple average of the last 10 polls leading up to the elections and comparing that to election night performance.

2011:

CPC: +2.6 compared to polling
NDP: -0.2 compared to polling
LIB: -1.1 compared to polling

2008:

CPC: +2.9 compared to polling
NDP: -1.4 compared to polling
LIB: 0.0 (Same as polling)

2006:

CPC: -0.9 compared to polling
NDP: -1.1 compared to polling
LIB: +3.0 compared to polling


If you take the numbers from the most recent election (2011) and apply them to current polling averages for the 10 most recent polls for this election you would get these numbers as the current state of the race:

CPC: 32.5%
NDP: 32.3%
LIB: 26.1%

[Senator Clay Davis]

Not surprising but more than anything shows people in Alberta would rather have the NDP federally than the Liberals which has to be demoralizing for them.

If the election were held today, more than half of decided Alberta voters — 58 per cent — would cast a ballot for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives in the Oct. 19 federal election, according to the poll of 509 Albertans.

Tom Mulcair’s New Democratic Party trailed by more than half at 26 per cent, followed by Justin Trudeau’s Liberals at 12 per cent and Elizabeth May’s Green party at three per cent.

While NDP support was strongest in Edmonton at 32 per cent, the Conservatives still hold the lead in Alberta’s capital city with 46 per cent. The Liberals trail in third with 16 per cent and the Green party follows with four per cent.

In Calgary, Conservative support is even higher at 56 per cent, while the NDP trails with 23 per cent, followed by the Liberals with 16 per cent support and the Greens with three per cent.

When asked which leader would make the best prime minister, Harper was the overwhelming favourite with 44 per cent. Mulcair followed with 15 per cent, while Trudeau trailed with nine per cent.

Respondents also picked Harper as the best leader to handle several different issues, including health care, the economy, crime, housing and poverty, energy, government accountability and foreign affairs. Voters picked the Green party’s May as the best leader to handle the environment.

Nearly four out of five voters — 78 per cent — say they won’t change their mind before the fall vote. That number jumps to 92 per cent for Conservative supporters, followed by 66 per cent for Liberal supporters, and 54 per cent for NDP supporters.

While the poll shows the Conservatives have maintained a healthy lead, it also reveals a paradox, with 53 per cent of voters agreeing it’s time for a change in government, while 40 per cent disagreed.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/ed...140/story.html

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Not surprising but more than anything shows people in Alberta would rather have the NDP federally than the Liberals which has to be demoralizing for them.





http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/ed...140/story.html

It's bizarre. I think the Liberals' policies are unquestionably friendlier to Alberta than the NDP's, yet you hear people keep saying that they'll never vote Liberal. Is this the same old NEP-grudge stuff, or do they like Mulcair better than Trudeau?