Federal Election Polling Thread

[LChoy]

Based on my perspective from working at a data based organization, I would be very in favour in bringing back the long form census. Still have no idea why the Conservatives scrapped it in the first place

[Fire]

So when the Liberals and NDP say they want to restore door-to-door mail delivery does that mean everyone or just the people that were recently forced to move over? How much is that going to cost? Isn't Canada Post already losing money and they want door-to-door delivery?

Are people that lazy they can't walk a couple of minutes to a mail box? I know people will say "but what about the elderly and handicapped?". If they are unable to get the mail on their own I would think they would be able to get help from the same people that help them mow their lawn or shuffle their sidewalk.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Fire

So when the Liberals and NDP say they want to restore door-to-door mail delivery does that mean everyone or just the people that were recently forced to move over? How much is that going to cost? Isn't Canada Post already losing money and they want door-to-door delivery?

Are people that lazy they can't walk a couple of minutes to a mail box? I know people will say "but what about the elderly and handicapped?". If they are unable to get the mail on their own I would think they would be able to get help from the same people that help them mow their lawn or shuffle their sidewalk.

For the elderly and handicapped it's one more thing that takes away their independence. I wouldn't be comfortable with someone else picking up my mail.

[CroFlames]

I have mixed feelings about the door-to-door mail thing. A part of me just thinks that a developed, G7 nation should be able to afford door-to-door mail.

All I know is that where they are placing the mailbox in my parents' hood is not a safe place, especially in winter.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

Although I despise Trudeau, I'm leaning towards the Liberal platform.

I'm pretty much on board with this right now. I did a poll 3 months ago, told them Trudeau was the one leader i would not vote for. But now looking at the platforms i'm slowly shifting.

[Vulcan]

ON:
CPC/NDP:8
CPC/LPC:20
NDP/LPC:5
NDP/LPC/CPC:5

I watch the Blue Jays games from SNOntario and I guess this is the reason the Trudeau attack ad is on every half inning.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...015-08-14E.pdf

The weekly tracker from Nanos shows the CPC in front with just under 32%. That's a four-week sample, so it would be less sensitive to recent shifts in voter preference than others might be, so keep that in mind.

[octothorp]

New Abacus one today, too. Strong poll for the NDP (36%), Conservatives and Liberals down. But actually it's not as bad as it looks for the CPC, because they make significant gains in BC in this poll, while NDP gets a boost in Quebec.

Abacus was last in the field July 6 (and had NDP leading 32-29, which was in line with other polls at the time).


http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uplo...2015-FINAL.pdf

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

The abacus poll is more or less in line with Leger and Forum.

The interesting thing is how volatile the electorate looks in that poll. 50% of CPC voters, and two thirds of liberal or NDP voters "could change their minds" before Election Day.

That the Tories have more "locked in" votes is perhaps a good sign for them, but there's bad news too: 50% of respondents "would be unhappy with or hate" a conservative majority. Meanwhile, 76% of respondents say that change would be good, and 59% say it's definitely time for a change. If you're the incumbent, I have to think you hate seeing those kinds of numbers.

[octothorp]

Yeah, I can't help thinking nearly all of those two thirds of liberal or NDP voters could change their mind from Liberal to NDP, or NDP to Liberal, depending on their riding, but unlikely to be changing to CPC.

[octothorp]

Environics has some swing riding polls out today, which includes Calgary Centre:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Env...-aug-19-15.pdf

They've got CPC leading Liberals 40-29, with NDP and Green making up 15 and 7 respectively. Which I find surprising given the dominance of Kent Hehr lawn signs.

Also, a CROP poll in Quebec shows the NDP up to 47%, which is similar to the numbers in the Abacus poll.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/el...ns-partage.php

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Environics has some swing riding polls out today, which includes Calgary Centre:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Env...-aug-19-15.pdf

They've got CPC leading Liberals 40-29, with NDP and Green making up 15 and 7 respectively. Which I find surprising given the dominance of Kent Hehr lawn signs.

I don't like second-guessing polls, but I find it hard to believe that a) Crockett has more support now than she got in the 2012 by-election; and b) Kent Hehr is polling lower than the percentage of the vote received by Harvey Locke despite being a much stronger candidate and without having to contend with vote-splitting from a tough competitor like Chris Turner.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

I don't like second-guessing polls, but I find it hard to believe that a) Crockett has more support now than she got in the 2012 by-election; and b) Kent Hehr is polling lower than the percentage of the vote received by Harvey Locke despite being a much stronger candidate and without having to contend with vote-splitting from a tough competitor like Chris Turner.

I don't buy that for a single second. Couple what you mention with the issues surrounding the Pride parade for Crockatt and I think the reverse is probably more accurate. I think that the 6/10 voters who want to see the CPC lose will gravitate to the Hehr campaign and he will win.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Slava

I don't buy that for a single second. Couple what you mention with the issues surrounding the Pride parade for Crockatt and I think the reverse is probably more accurate. I think that the 6/10 voters who want to see the CPC lose will gravitate to the Hehr campaign and he will win.

Well I hate to join in the second-guessing, but it looks like the sample size was only 517 in Calgary Centre, with a MOE of 4.3%. Riding-level polls are tough for this reason. I'm no expert, but isn't that sample almost too small to be significant?

[Bownesian]

Barring systematic bias, the numbers should be within 4.3% of the polled result (19 times out of 20). 1 time in 20 the MOE should be larger than 4.3%, again assuming no systematic bias.

Put another way, they polled 0.5% of the population of the riding, which if one were to scale up to a national poll would be 181,000 people.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Fair enough. I suppose one way to look at those numbers then is that if Crockatt won 36-34, it would still be within the MOE.

You never know what will happen, I suppose--but I would think Crockatt is in trouble just as a result of the fundamentals that are at play. It's a "change" election for a majority of voters, the Tories are polling nearly 10% behind where they were last time, Harper has net unfavourables in the high 30s.... And yet an unpopular incumbent MP who is widely thought of as a nincompoop, and who barely eked out a by-election win over a split-vote opposition, is supposed to beat a popular MLA, challenging in a riding that is largely his home turf?

I guess I am skeptical--but again, that is just my gut, without numbers to back it up.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

On another note, Forum's numbers from yesterday look about the same as their numbers from last week: NDP 34, CPC 29, Liberals 28.

Interestingly, the regionals bear out the CROP poll, showing a big NDP lead in Quebec. Meanwhile, Ontario is still deadlocked, with the CPC perhaps clinging to a narrow lead.

To me this raises the question of whether the NDP vote will be "efficient" in the sense of translating into enough seats to form government. If the CPC win Ontario, I doubt it will matter which party wins the popular vote; they should, in that case, hang on to a minority government.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

To me this raises the question of whether the NDP vote will be "efficient" in the sense of translating into enough seats to form government. If the CPC win Ontario, I doubt it will matter which party wins the popular vote; they should, in that case, hang on to a minority government.

True, but losing the popular vote opens the door that much wider for an NDP/Liberal coalition.

[Bownesian]

I agree that the Calgary Center poll might not be representative of what happens in 8 weeks or whatever it is until the polls start to open up. I would guess that a lot of the CPC vote may be softened by the Duffy business and the general hyperpartisan idiocy of the current government and that may lead to conservative voters staying home.

As for a coalition, I don't see that happening in a formal sense, but I also don't see a Conservative minority passing a speech from the throne unless it's an extremely really strong minority.

[SebC]

Polling is where you should express your preference purely. At the ballot box is where you make a strategic shift. IIRC the NDP were at 8% in the by-election polls, but finished with 4%. If half of that 15% moves to Hehr, it becomes a lot closer.