Federal Election Polling Thread

[karl262]

Are there polls we can see that are specific to ridings?

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[starseed]

Originally Posted by karl262

Are there polls we can see that are specific to ridings?

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Yes, check out threehundredeight.com

[SebC]

308 is riding projections, not riding polls, I believe. Leadnow did a riding poll for Calgary Centre (check out the election polling thread).

[Parallex]

Ekos...

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.ph...e-the-economy/

... Cliff Note Version: Same three way deadlock we've more or less seen elsewhere: LPC: 27.7, CPC: 29.5, NDP 30.2

[rubecube]

New EKOS poll out:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.ph...e-the-economy/

NDP 30.2%
CON 29.5%
LIB 27.7%
GRN 6.4%
BQ 4.21%
OTH 1.9%

Probably the most important development is that Liberals are now first in Ontario. I still don't see how they form a government without gaining seats in Quebec or BC but credit where it's due.

[Bownesian]

It's probably worth reminding people that the regional results like the Ontario observation above have a much higher margin of error due to having a much smaller sample size. You probably have to look at 4 or 5 polls together to see if the LPC trend is real or a sampling blip.

[killer_carlson]

And this poll was done essentially at the peak of the Duffy scandal's impact.

I wonder if Duffy will be a lingering issue or if it will tail off towards the end of September.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Probably the most important development is that Liberals are now first in Ontario. I still don't see how they form a government without gaining seats in Quebec or BC but credit where it's due.

I found the vote ceiling barometer interesting as well... The Tories are in trouble as they're the second choice of almost nobody.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I found the vote ceiling barometer interesting as well... The Tories are in trouble as they're the second choice of almost nobody.

Harper's approval rating compared to the other leaders is pretty dismal, too.

[rubecube]

Got an Angus Reid survey in my inbox today, so I'm thinking they'll have results out next week.

[FlamesAddiction]

Some new polls out suggesting the Conservatives are now in 3rd, the NDP are lagging, and the Liberals are gaining steam.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cana...sep4-1.3216128

I am curious as to what soft conservatives see as the lesser evil... Trudeau, or the pinkos. If it starts to look like the Conservatives may not even be the opposition, I wonder how many will strategically vote for the Liberals just to keep the NDP out, then appoint a new leader for the next election to take on the Liberals.

I also wonder how many "flavour of the month" supporters will jump ship from the NDP to the Liberals just to be on the winning team, assuming that the above scenario plays out.

[AcGold]

I'm shocked Trudeau is making progress, months ago he was being trashed in our national media.

I'd read newspapers that would assert he's too young still, not ready. News broadcasts that condemned him harshly for his fiscal policies, radio and television ads saying his first priority is legalizing marijuana. Not a single good thing to say about him but here he is, hanging in tight.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by AcGold

I'm shocked Trudeau is making progress, months ago he was being trashed in our national media.



I'd read newspapers that would assert he's too young still, not ready. News broadcasts that condemned him harshly for his fiscal policies, radio and television ads saying his first priority is legalizing marijuana. Not a single good thing to say about him but here he is, hanging in tight.

Trudeau is very personable and several commentators have noted that he does very well with crowds and campaign activities. People generally like him, which is why the Conservatives adopted a not ready (yet) campaign rather than just smearing him (and the fact that it resonates).

I think that everything you mentioned has set the bar low and he is exceeding those expectations throughout the campaign. I expect the Liberals to pass the NDP by the election, whether they win or not remains to be seen.

[JohnnyB]

What was it that caused the NDP's numbers to start rocketing upwards back in May?

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Trudeau is very personable and several commentators have noted that he does very well with crowds and campaign activities. People generally like him, which is why the Conservatives adopted a not ready (yet) campaign rather than just smearing him (and the fact that it resonates).

I think that everything you mentioned has set the bar low and he is exceeding those expectations throughout the campaign. I expect the Liberals to pass the NDP by the election, whether they win or not remains to be seen.

I agree.

Trudeau is drawing a line in the sand. He's going with the Wynne model of running deficits at least until 2019 so that Canadians can get important stuff, like factories and infrastructure. He just pledged 20B for transit over the next 10 years. Harper will argue that voting Liberal is basically voting Kathleen Wynne into Ottawa. Trudeau will argue that Wynne has done well for Ontario with her recent majority win.

He will also drive a bigger wedge between Harper and Mulcair saying Harper will give you nothing to balance the budget and Mulcair will tax you do death to balance the budget. Is balancing the budget the be all and end all is his argument. He's playing the honest politician role casting the others as snakes and it seems to be working.

[Fuzz]

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Liberals take a lot of NDP votes and move into the lead. I think C-51 really hurt the Liberals, but people will move on by the election. They are starting to see Mulcair is not like Lack Layton. A few more debates is going to sink them, and the only place for those votes to reasonably go is the Liberals.

All personal opinion of course, but I think the Liberals are going to come out with a minority, not sure who will be in opposition. They have the ability to suck Conservative voters who don't want an NDP in, and NDP supporters who don't want Conservatives. I'm not sure there are all that many people REALLY afraid of a Liberal government.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Liberals take a lot of NDP votes and move into the lead. I think C-51 really hurt the Liberals, but people will move on by the election. They are starting to see Mulcair is not like Lack Layton. A few more debates is going to sink them, and the only place for those votes to reasonably go is the Liberals.

All personal opinion of course, but I think the Liberals are going to come out with a minority, not sure who will be in opposition. They have the ability to suck Conservative voters who don't want an NDP in, and NDP supporters who don't want Conservatives. I'm not sure there are all that many people REALLY afraid of a Liberal government.

Veteran Liberals like Martin, Goodale and Axworthy have been increasingly visible in this campaign which helps shore up Trudeau. Most people couldn't name many NDP outside of Mulcair

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Two more to mention: Forum (who had the NDP at 40% a while ago) has:
NDP: 36
LPC: 32
CPC: 24

Meanwhile, Leger has new numbers today as well, and show what by any standard is a three-way tie:
NDP: 31
LPC: 30
CPC: 29

Forum is starting to look like the odd one out, frankly.

[rubecube]

I said from the beginning that the worst thing that could happen for the CPC was if they couldn't put Trudeau away early because he'd end up being a lot more palatable than Mulcair for centre-right voters. If you're a strategic voter in Ontario or BC, it makes way more sense to vote Liberal than Conservative if you're trying to block the NDP.

[Caged Great]

I think with the recent immigration/refugee incident that that will pretty much be the death knell for the Conservatives in this election. They were trending towards defeat anyway with a near 3 way tie, but I think this incident has disgusted a lot of Canadians to the point where it's time to go in another direction.

At this rate, I'm expecting the Liberals to win the election and the NDP forming the opposition. Some of the more left wing conservatives will likely vote Liberal to avoid the NDP winning and we're seeing that with the conservatives losing support in Ontario.

Whether it becomes a Liberal or NDP majority is still yet to be seen. I think the winning party will have about 130-140 seats with the other being at 120-130. I could see an evacuation of conservative support sort of like what happened last time to the Liberals and if that's the case a majority could happen.