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Old 01-23-2013, 02:07 PM   #1
troutman
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Default Playoff Chances

Too Soon?

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...t/Calgary.html

Calgary Flames Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.3 to 30.7%
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:10 PM   #2
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I will post my thoughts after the Edmonton game.
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:10 PM   #3
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So you're saying there's a chance?...
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:11 PM   #4
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to quote Ash from Army of Darkness: "Somewhere between Jack and s---, and Jack just left town"
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:23 PM   #5
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Too early to be talking playoffs. Look around the league and there are a handful of teams including the Flames still working to get their feet under them (Flyers, Rangers, Canucks all come to mind right away). Although, it would be fair to say a prolonged losing streak like 5 games or so is certainly the closest thing to a season killer you can have in this short season. If the Flames win tonight and/or Saturday I hope we can keep the playoff (or early golf tee time) talk away for another ten games or so because things can change pretty quick and trying to call it so soon is just going to do harm to our blood pressure.
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:32 PM   #6
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Oh man this would be a good spot to post the playoffs video...

"Don't talk to me about playoffs, I just hope we can win a game"
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:40 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SofaProfessor View Post
Too early to be talking playoffs. Look around the league and there are a handful of teams including the Flames still working to get their feet under them (Flyers, Rangers, Canucks all come to mind right away). Although, it would be fair to say a prolonged losing streak like 5 games or so is certainly the closest thing to a season killer you can have in this short season. If the Flames win tonight and/or Saturday I hope we can keep the playoff (or early golf tee time) talk away for another ten games or so because things can change pretty quick and trying to call it so soon is just going to do harm to our blood pressure.
It should also be noted that the 1995 New Jersey Devils started their season 0-3-1 and had another 0-3-1 streak right at the end of their season. To be fair there wasn't nearly the same level of league parity in those days (3 teams made the playoffs with sub-.500 records), but it does show that all is not lost yet.

That said, the Flames need to start accumulating wins right now if they want a chance as every win and loss is magnified in a shortened season.
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:44 PM   #8
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:50 PM   #9
Mister Yamoto
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Wow. I clearly do not understand complex math formulas. I don't see how 0-2 gives you a 30.7% chance.
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:52 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman View Post
Too Soon?

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...t/Calgary.html

Calgary Flames Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.3 to 30.7%
So you're saying our odds will go up each day we don't play?

FLAMES WALK OUT!

(I know how it works I'm just being an arse)
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:53 PM   #11
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Wow. I clearly do not understand complex math formulas. I don't see how 0-2 gives you a 30.7% chance.
Since we haven't played a divisional opponent yet it's probably giving us that chance based on the ability to win our division. Vancouver is 0-1-1, Edmonton is 1-1, Colorado is 1-1, and Minnesota is 2-1.
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:53 PM   #12
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I think things are going to be very unpredictable this year because of the shortened season. Some teams are going to be giving up points on the second game of back to backs, due to fatigue. I'm sure the standing on the final day are going to look a lot different from the past few years.

I really think the Flames chances rest on Kipper, and goaltenders around the league.
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:55 PM   #13
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edmontons chances of getting a #1 draft pick is 100% every year
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:56 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto View Post
Wow. I clearly do not understand complex math formulas. I don't see how 0-2 gives you a 30.7% chance.
I believe it's on trends & tendencies. Start of the season everyone's 50/50 (even odds), Flames have lowered that tendency/likelihood of a win with 2 losses thus far... 2 losses doesn't mean they're likely to go 0-48. The system is also built on only needing to do better than 7 other teams. Right now, there are a few winless teams, a few that are 1-1, etc... It just means they're 30.7% likely (right now) to pass 7 other teams to get a playoff spot.
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Old 01-23-2013, 03:12 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman View Post
Too Soon?

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...t/Calgary.html

Calgary Flames Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.3 to 30.7%
I wonder if Bouwmeester was traded if it would read "Bouwmeester traded, playoff odds up to now possible."
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Old 01-23-2013, 04:00 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Komskies View Post
It should also be noted that the 1995 New Jersey Devils started their season 0-3-1 and had another 0-3-1 streak right at the end of their season. To be fair there wasn't nearly the same level of league parity in those days (3 teams made the playoffs with sub-.500 records), but it does show that all is not lost yet.

That said, the Flames need to start accumulating wins right now if they want a chance as every win and loss is magnified in a shortened season.
and the Flames in 1987-88, under a new coach, won the Presidents Trophy for the first time started their season 2-5
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Old 01-23-2013, 04:06 PM   #17
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Also the 1926 Montreal Maroons went 0-4 to start there cup winning season!
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Old 01-23-2013, 04:43 PM   #18
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As of right now, our odds of making the playoffs are 3 percent lower than Sean Connery's chances of successfully delivering the Red October to the Americans.
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Old 01-23-2013, 05:04 PM   #19
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Statistically, I'd argue that since the season is so new, that it would be more accurate to use the 50/50 variant, instead of the weighted version. That says the Flames are at 40%.
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Old 01-23-2013, 05:09 PM   #20
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Statistically too small of a sample size for this to be accurate yet... but love the website.
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