ESPN's mock Vegas expansion draft

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I remember when people were freaking out that the Flames would lose Jokipaka to Las Vegas. It was a more complicated time back then.

I remember being terrified that the Flames would lose him. I wanted them to protect 4/4/1. Ah, those were the days.

But yeah, I can't think of any possible scenario where the Flames expose Ferland. That doesn't make one iota of sense.

[Duffalufagus]

By giving up a second round pick for Lazar, the Flames would look foolish not protecting him and then losing him. He could skate through without being claimed, but that would be a big gamble and potential egg on the face moment for management.

IMO - the decision to protect Lazar was made when they traded for him. They knew it was a long term project. Him stink bombing the Caps game did nothing to change that.

That leaves Brower and Ferland who potentially get exposed.

On the one hand, you have a guy who makes little cash, brings his lunch pail everyday and has lit a fire on the top line helping to squeeze out some residual 16' - 17' value on 13mil worth of contract cash paid this year.

On the other hand you have a guy who, despite reports of being great in the room (positive, of course), has vastly underproduced on the ice and is inked long term at a number that just does not make any sense.

Unless we make a deep run (conf finals minimum) and he is a major contributor, I just don't see protecting that kind of cash and term for the current results.

Final thought: If Ferland is exposed he is as good as gone. If Brouwer is exposed I'd take the under on Vegas rolling the dice on him. There is better value out there. Tre knows this. The interesting question at this point is how he will feel if Troy gets scooped. I bet he would prefer to unload the salary. That may change in the next few weeks.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Maybe a side deal with Vegas to not take Ferland, say Bouma instead with the Flames tossing in a mid-level prospect.

Don't discount Matt Stajan being picked. He's overpaid but a good locker room guy and would be a solid bottom 6 player. We have kind of been lucky as Flames fans to have a 4th line center that's been as steady as he has been for his tenure here.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I remember being terrified that the Flames would lose him [Jokipakka]. I wanted them to protect 4/4/1. Ah, those were the days.

Yeah, but traditionally your over-evaluation of bottom half of the roster players is notorious. Perhaps you should dial back the love for these guys a bit?

BTW, how's that David Jones bet going for you "dickbutt"?

[ResAlien]

Brouwer or Lazar will be exposed IMO. Brouwer because of the emergence of Ferkland and Troy's lackluster play this year, optics of newly signed FA be damned. If Lazar is exposed it's not the end of the world, if he goes we basically paid a second round pick for Vegas to not take anyone.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Yeah, but traditionally your over-evaluation of bottom half of the roster players is notorious. Perhaps you should dial back the love for these guys a bit?

BTW, how's that David Jones bet going for you "dickbutt"?

Fifteen goals in six games? For a guy as good as Jones, that should be a walk in the park.

[GoJetsGo]

With Ferland's size and truculence in addition to his emerging skill and chemistry on the top line, there's no chance he'e left exposed. None. The mould and style of the player (and at such a young age) is something this organization covets.

[doctajones428]

Nearly quadruples his goal scoring from last year

"Ferland is as good as he's ever going to be!"

Since joining the top line he's been on a 38 goal, 49 point pace. Hes not going to be exposed over Brouwer

[dino7c]

would you trade a 2nd round pick in this draft to protect your entire roster?

I would, losing Lazar wouldn't be that big a deal

That being said expose TB, worst case is we have some cap space to play with.

Sorry Stajan but I would be doing the moonwalk if they took him

[TheScorpion]

If they picked Stajan, I'd be sad to see him go, because he seems like a really terrific guy. But for the kind of player he is... the Flames could very easily replace him with a guy like Derek Ryan out of Carolina (I think he'll be a Flame on July 1st).

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Custance looks like he was the only one operating with a realistic list of players left unprotected. There's some very valuable players on the other guy's list that have no chance of being left unprotected: Silfverberg? Marchessault? Methot? Hagelin? Very doubtful that one of those guys is available, let alone all four.

Re: Silfverberg
Anaheim already has Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler and Bieksa to automatically protect due to NMCs. After that there's a combination of Rakell, Silfverberg, Lindholm, Vatanan and Fowler. Either they expose one of the defensemen or one of Rakell/Silfverberg depending on which combination they go with.

Not sure where Marchessault comes in since he's easily the 6th choice to protect in a 7/3 combo.

Methot is a real possibility if Phaneuf refuses to waive his NMC in order to be exposed.

Don't know about Hagelin since he seems to be easily protected.



Of course any of these could technically be avoided by making a side deal, but it better be a hell of a deal if the choice is some picks versus getting Silfverberg for free.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

If they picked Stajan, I'd be sad to see him go, because he seems like a really terrific guy. But for the kind of player he is... the Flames could very easily replace him with a guy like Derek Ryan out of Carolina (I think he'll be a Flame on July 1st).

No! Bad scorpion! You don't bring in 4th line guys, you develop and replace them on the cheap. Top line salaries don't kill a team, inflated bottom 6 salaries do.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Anduril

Of course any of these could technically be avoided by making a side deal, but it better be a hell of a deal if the choice is some picks versus getting Silfverberg for free.

They can ideally only make so many side deals as they do have to ice a competitive team that entertains a non-traditional market.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

No! Bad scorpion! You don't bring in 4th line guys, you develop and replace them on the cheap. Top line salaries don't kill a team, inflated bottom 6 salaries do.

Derek Ryan should cost $1 million max

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by doctajones428

Nearly quadruples his goal scoring from last year

"Ferland is as good as he's ever going to be!"

Since joining the top line he's been on a 38 goal, 49 point pace. Hes not going to be exposed over Brouwer

That's a sample size of 15 whole games. You can't extrapolate such a small data set for a full season.

Meanwhile, Brouwer has put up multiple seasons of 20 goals and 40+ points, yet nobody wants to consider this season a blip.

BTW, Brouwer has scored 3 goals in his last 4 games. He's on pace for 60 goals by your logic.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Anduril

Re: Silfverberg
Anaheim already has Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler and Bieksa to automatically protect due to NMCs. After that there's a combination of Rakell, Silfverberg, Lindholm, Vatanan and Fowler. Either they expose one of the defensemen or one of Rakell/Silfverberg depending on which combination they go with.

Not sure where Marchessault comes in since he's easily the 6th choice to protect in a 7/3 combo.

Methot is a real possibility if Phaneuf refuses to waive his NMC in order to be exposed.

Don't know about Hagelin since he seems to be easily protected.



Of course any of these could technically be avoided by making a side deal, but it better be a hell of a deal if the choice is some picks versus getting Silfverberg for free.

You forgot Vermette also has a NMC and is on the books for another year.

It does appear the Ducks are going to lose a good player either at forward or defense if they don't do a side deal with Vegas, so I guess I was a little quick on that one. Perhaps they buy out Bieksa's final year to get rid of his NMC and make their protection list a little more palatable.

Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Vermette, Rakell, Silfverberg, Cogliano

Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen

Gibson

If I'm their GM I have no problem dumping the 35 year old in favor of keeping the rest of that roster together.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

That's a sample size of 15 whole games. You can't extrapolate such a small data set for a full season.



Meanwhile, Brouwer has put up multiple seasons of 20 goals and 40+ points, yet nobody wants to consider this season a blip.



BTW, Brouwer has scored 3 goals in his last 4 games. He's on pace for 60 goals by your logic.

You said you aren't advocating for anyone scenario, but to me it sure sounds like you want/expect the Flames to protect Brouwer over Ferland which I don't understand.

The way I see it BT rolls the dice with leaving Brouwer exposed. It's 50/50 if he gets picked or not in my opinion.

If he decides he wants to keep Brouwer at all costs I assume he just gives up a pick to Vegas and then they end up taking Kulak or somebody

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by bax

You said you aren't advocating for anyone scenario, but to me it sure sounds like you want/expect the Flames to protect Brouwer over Ferland which I don't understand.

The way I see it BT rolls the dice with leaving Brouwer exposed. It's 50/50 if he gets picked or not in my opinion.

If he decides he wants to keep Brouwer at all costs I assume he just gives up a pick to Vegas and then they end up taking Kulak or somebody

No, I'm saying that if they choose the veteran Brouwer over Ferland, it's not exactly a stupid decision, and there are reasons to do it.

People have really bad recency bias when evaluating this situation. I like both players, but both players have flaws. It depends on which player's flaws the franchise is more comfortable with going forward. There are pros and cons to both scenarios.

[Southside]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I know what that's called but I have a feeling that expansion was addressed in negotiations with a lot of UFA's last season. Could be nothing more than a hand shake agreement that I'm sure Treliving would honor. I want Brouwer to be exposed and picked if possible but I'm just not sure he's going to be exposed. Time will tell on this one.

That's not what you said. "That said I wouldn't be surprised if Brouwer and his agent covered their bases when they signed the deal and has something written in it about the expansion draft."

Brouwer has no protection and everyone knew this expansion draft was coming, so any handshake deal would have been properly negotiated in the form of a NMC. That is the "something written" in the deal that you are referring to.

[hurtin_albertan]

People here seem to be forgetting how massive a force Ferland was for the Flames when they last made the playoffs. He had Bieksa afraid to even touch the puck by the end of the series against the Canucks. It's not just that he's found a groove on the top line but if he's in there punishing the opponent's top D pair that will be on the ice against Johnny and Monny, it could be the difference between moving on and going home.

If it's between Ferland and Brouwer, I think performance in this year's playoffs decides it.