Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Slava]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

They didn't vote for us because they are stupid is not a good political message.

Folks didn't vote for the NDP for
1. anxiety surrounding their policies that relate to O and G
2. a general mistrust of sweeping social cultural changes
3. fatigue with left wing political rhetoric.

If the NDP wants to govern they need to work hard on their PR as it relates to these three subjects.

4. Concerns about their fiscal plans.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Slava

4. Concerns about their fiscal plans.

I believe the corporate/business tax hikes soured a lot of people in Calgary and definitely made things tougher on the NDP.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I believe the corporate/business tax hikes soured a lot of people in Calgary and definitely made things tougher on the NDP.

And played right into the hands of the UCP, without question. It was entirely stupid to roll that out, and right before the debate nonetheless.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I believe the corporate/business tax hikes soured a lot of people in Calgary and definitely made things tougher on the NDP.

Originally Posted by Slava

And played right into the hands of the UCP, without question. It was entirely stupid to roll that out, and right before the debate nonetheless.

Case in point. A return to a more normal level of taxation(good policy!) that would effect very very few voters, but all their simple minds could read was "tax increase!" as they voted against their own best interests.

So the failing is that they overestimated the intelligence of the average voter and underestimated the loudness of dog whistles.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Case in point. A return to a more normal level of taxation(good policy!) that would effect very very few voters, but all their simple minds could read was "tax increase!" as they voted against their own best interests.

So the failing is that they overestimated the intelligence of the average voter and underestimated the loudness of dog whistles.

That is only part of the story and Notley failed to sell the tax increase effectively to voters and the numbers that they provided for increased revenue were debunked by people in the economic world like Trevor Tombe.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

That is only part of the story and Notley failed to sell the tax increase effectively to voters and the numbers that they provided for increased revenue were debunked by people in the economic world like Trevor Tombe.

There you are, using Smith's talking points instead of the reality of what Tombe said. Tombe did not debunk the fact that revenue would increase, he offered reasons why it might not be as large as the NDP stated. And there is always room to debate the numbers once you agree on the principle of it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...enue-1.6855807

So he was still saying it would bring in an extra billion dollars. Maybe not enough to make up for Kenney flushing $1.5 billing down the toilet.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

There you are, using Smith's talking points instead of the reality of what Tombe said. Tombe did not debunk the fact that revenue would increase, he offered reasons why it might not be as large as the NDP stated. And there is always room to debate the numbers once you agree on the principle of it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...enue-1.6855807

So he was still saying it would bring in an extra billion dollars. Maybe not enough to make up for Kenney flushing $1.5 billing down the toilet.

And Notley's response to being questioned on the figures didn't help the situation because all she could say is that they are right and maybe even conservative and if they are wrong at least they can fall back on the surplus.

"First of all, let me just say that other economists have actually countered the statements made [by Tombe] and have actually suggested that our numbers are conservative and reasonable," said Notley during a news conference on Thursday.

"We know that our budget as it stands right now has a solid $1 billion surplus built into it, so we can move forward with our plans even if it takes a bit longer for that revenue to come in."

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Geraldsh

Is Nenshi going to run or not? What does he, or the party, gain by him playing coy? I too would like to see Pancholi as leader and Nenshi as advisor if he can’t commit to more.

When Hoffman runs second, who will she throw her weight behind?

Radio the other day mentioned that he would have to get an exemption from the NDP to run as he is currently not eligible (was not a member of the NDP at some predetermined time which is a prerequisiet to run). The party would need to waive that requirement.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

And Notley's response to being questioned on the figures didn't help the situation because all she could say is that they are right and maybe even conservative and if they are wrong at least they can fall back on the surplus.

And again, they were the only adults in the room. Smith wasn't even pretending their was a way to balance the budget without shrugged her shoulders and pointing to resource revenues. UCP voters showed they don't actually care about reality, budgets, and good governance, otherwise they would have voted for the only party proposing those things.


Is it really so hard to believe voters went with their emotional response vs a fact based logical one? have you been paying any attention over the last decade?

[woob]

Fuzz, I'll beat the "voters are stupid" drum right along with you all day long, but at some point you have to put the onus on the campaign and campaign staff to realize the provincial hatred for anything taxes. That should have been an after an election win item, no matter if it would have angered the masses. Especially when you're the NDP and already at a disadvantage.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I hung out last night with a friend who’s big enough in NDP circles in this city that he’s having private lunches with all the leadership candidates. At his lunch with Ganley, he warned that making Alberta NDP party membership automatically include federal NDP membership is a problem in this province. She did say she’d raise the matter at the party convention, so he probably isn’t the only person telling her that.

It should be a problem in every Province and I know its 'gauche' to say 'change the name and colours' but if you want to get elected here?

We have people who have respect for Notley, regardless of the fact that she's gone now, but I remember when the Federal NDP released the 'LEAP Manifesto' and its like you could see Notley's eyes bulge out like a Looney Tunes cartoon and announce:

"Uh, we have nothing to do with this. Do not associate us with this."

Nobody should want to be associated with the Federal NDP least of all if they want to be elected in Alberta. They're viewed as Liberal Lap-Dogs.

If you're going to try and elect someone why elect the Lap-Dog rather than the Lap that they're sitting in?

[Monahammer]

The mention of taxation was a classic "left shooting itself in the foot with honesty" moment.

They could have had that as a central plan, they just didn't need to talk about it. In fact, I would assume that virtually everyone in the know already realized and understood that was the plan (how else could they fund better social programs while also adding to the heritage fund as discussed in their plan?!!)
But, this is where the unscrupulous win. They know that they can have plans that they don't campaign on, whereas the NDP take is that transparency should roll through everything and they should lay their plans bare on the table.
If the UCP ran on the actual positions they are currently following they would have lost. In fact, we can see direct evidence of them downplaying APP and the curriculum during the election, only to revive them immediately and use them as foundational pieces once government was formed.

If the NDP hadn't had Todd Hirsch tell everyone the secret sauce they probably would have won.

In current state, I don't think they can win again. Notley had really good name recognition and remarkably wasn't hated. Begrudging acceptance. Without Notley IMO the brand remains unelectable in alberta. This is also why Nenshi won't run as an NDP candidate (IMO).

It's a shame the AB party moniker was already used up by a bunch of losers. We need a new party to take up the fight.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

It's a shame the AB party moniker was already used up by a bunch of losers. We need a new party to take up the fight.

"The Alberta Wokist Union"

Give it a try!

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

Radio the other day mentioned that he would have to get an exemption from the NDP to run as he is currently not eligible (was not a member of the NDP at some predetermined time which is a prerequisiet to run). The party would need to waive that requirement.

Nenshi has the name recognition, but it’s a pretty big issue that he isn’t even a member of the NDP. Being a party leader isn’t like being mayor. A mayor is an independent actor who doesn’t have to forge and lead a team.

There’s a precedent in Klein, who wasn’t a member or active in the PCs until he switched to provincial politics. But Klein had fixers and policy people who handled all that stuff. Nenshi seems more independent-minded.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

The mention of taxation was a classic "left shooting itself in the foot with honesty" moment.

They could have had that as a central plan, they just didn't need to talk about it. In fact, I would assume that virtually everyone in the know already realized and understood that was the plan (how else could they fund better social programs while also adding to the heritage fund as discussed in their plan?!!)
But, this is where the unscrupulous win. They know that they can have plans that they don't campaign on, whereas the NDP take is that transparency should roll through everything and they should lay their plans bare on the table.
If the UCP ran on the actual positions they are currently following they would have lost. In fact, we can see direct evidence of them downplaying APP and the curriculum during the election, only to revive them immediately and use them as foundational pieces once government was formed.

If the NDP hadn't had Todd Hirsch tell everyone the secret sauce they probably would have won.

In current state, I don't think they can win again. Notley had really good name recognition and remarkably wasn't hated. Begrudging acceptance. Without Notley IMO the brand remains unelectable in alberta. This is also why Nenshi won't run as an NDP candidate (IMO).

It's a shame the AB party moniker was already used up by a bunch of losers. We need a new party to take up the fight.

That's a trap too, though. Smith would have grilled Notley into committing to not raising taxes, and if Notley couldn't do that she'd have the spectre of an unknown tax hanging over every minute of the campaign. So she either gets busted in a lie, or comes out with a small reasonable return to normal taxation levels for business. Many here ask why we can't have honest politicians. Why are they all so awful? Well this is why. You get an honest one with integrity and she didn't get elected because of it.


I take a lot of heat for pointing out the obvious, and I'm sorry if the truth is ugly, but it is.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Locke

"The Alberta Wokist Union"

Give it a try!

lol.

The main problem is the machinery of a party takes a while to establish. Even two years for a brand spanking new party would be a very tight timeline. Unless they had very substantial initial funding and a strong and motivated volunteer base right out of the gates.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That's a trap too, though. Smith would have grilled Notley into committing to not raising taxes, and if Notley couldn't do that she'd have the spectre of an unknown tax hanging over every minute of the campaign. So she either gets busted in a lie, or comes out with a small reasonable return to normal taxation levels for business. Many here ask why we can't have honest politicians. Why are they all so awful? Well this is why. You get an honest one with integrity and she didn't get elected because of it.


I take a lot of heat for pointing out the obvious, and I'm sorry if the truth is ugly, but it is.

I'm not disagreeing with your take- she lost because she was honest.

But, you can have an honest politician that knows how to play the game.

IMO that's an easy win from a strategy perspective. You just dodge it like all the times Danielle refused to talk APP or Curriculum. If the other party is just saying it about you it is easy enough to dismiss. She wouldn't have had to commit to anything other than a constant campaign of dodging that one specific issue.

[Monahammer]

" Commit to not raising taxes on business! "

" our economic platform proposes numerous tax incentive programs for new business... "

"Are you planning to raise taxes on business?"

"We have a number of new business supports proposed in our economic plan..."

Etc ad infinitum

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

" Commit to not raising taxes on business! "

" our economic platform proposes numerous tax incentive programs for new business... "

"Are you planning to raise taxes on business?"

"We have a number of new business supports proposed in our economic plan..."

Etc ad infinitum

This is just it. As if Notley would've been the only politician who didn't answer the question and give non-answers.

But no...according to Fuzz and others on this board, the voters are just stupid and should've voted for the NDP for their own good. But they're also not stupid enough that they would believe that the NDP by any other name is just as socialist. It's a perplexing conundrum really.

[Fuzz]

Non-answers let your opponent define you. There'd be a load of op-eds about Notley's unknown taxes, frank questions from reporters asking "why cant you just say an NDP government wouldn't implement or increase taxes?" And you are essentially asking for politicians to lie just to get elected.

"But why can't we have honest politicians!?!" they yell...maybe look in the mirror.