Russia invades Ukraine

[undercoverbrother]

Good #### those ####s

[chemgear]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1674495301061693446

[FlamesAddiction]

That is pretty much why there are already so many Russians living in Ukraine. The ancestors of those who died or left during the Holodomor had Russians taking over their ancestral homes about 15 minutes later. They did the same thing in the Caucasus and Kazakhstan as well.

I wouldn't be upset at all if after the war, Ukraine sends every Russian living on Ukrainian territory back to the mother land whether they were born in Ukraine or not. Having a large ethnic Russian population just guarantees future conflict because they always lust over other people's land.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I wouldn't be upset at all if after the war, Ukraine sends every Russian living on Ukrainian territory back to the mother land whether they were born in Ukraine or not. Having a large ethnic Russian population just guarantees future conflict because they always lust over other people's land.

You wouldn't be upset with ethnic cleansing?

Obviously Russians who don't have a legal right to reside in Ukraine should be booted out, but you honestly think Ukrainian citizens or permanent residents should be thrown out of their country because of their ethnicity? Do you realize how insane that would be? Not to mention, anyone undertaking that would be risking getting a one way trip to the Hague for crimes against humanity.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by opendoor

You wouldn't be upset with ethnic cleansing?

Obviously Russians who don't have a legal right to reside in Ukraine should be booted out, but you honestly think Ukrainian citizens or permanent residents should be thrown out of their country because of their ethnicity? Do you realize how insane that would be? Not to mention, anyone undertaking that would be risking getting a one way trip to the Hague for crimes against humanity.

I agree it would never happen, but it wouldn't bother me.

After WW2, 14 million ethnic Germans were sent to Germany from countries that were invaded by the Nazis and no one today sheds a tear for them (500k from Kaliningrad alone). The Potsdam Conference after the war even facilitated the expulsion of Germans from Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary. It was recognized by the governments at the time that having large German populations in their borders was an existential threat for future invasions. Russians have earned themselves a similar reputation with their irredentist doctrines and desire to unite all Russians under one flag. The presence of a large Russian population in Ukraine will always be an existential threat to Ukraine. Same thing with the Baltics.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

a large ethnic Russian population just guarantees future conflict because they always lust over other people's land.

I've known some pretty cool Russians. Never knew they harbored that kind of lust for land theft. Actually, one of them is now living in a Baltic state as a prof at one of their universities. I think it would suck for anywhere to lose someone super-smart and very cool like her, but I guess if she has some hidden a lust to steal land she should go too. She probably shouldn't have wasted all that effort going to do a PhD abroad to get out of Russia.

[activeStick]

Xenophobia is not cool and should never be cheered on. Simply terrible.

[Huntingwhale]

Yeah, I would re-word some of what FA posted and instead say that every Russian national who moved from Russian to Ukraine without proper Ukrainian authorization, and onto a stolen piece of Ukrainian land should be sent packing. Nobody is rounding up all the Ukrainians with Russian heritage and sending them packing. That's just dumb. Literally the entire east would be deported, as there is so much russian heritage there. Heck, my FIL was born in russia and I can assure you he is at the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to supporting russian imperialism. I'm trying to visualize someone telling him to pack his bags and go live in russia...hilarious.

[FlamesAddiction]

Ok, fair enough. It was an emotional response to the Mariupol headline. It just pisses me off to read about this kind of colonial activity going on in 2023. Modern sensibilities probably don't reconcile with the sensibilities of 70 years ago when Germans in Central and Eastern Europe were forced to re-settle in Germany, or Japanese civilians in China were sent to Japan. I get that. But then I see Russians applying sensibilities from 300 years ago, and the sensibilities from 70 years ago seem more humane in comparison.

[jeffman]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Xenophobia is not cool and should never be cheered on. Simply terrible.

It’s only a tragedy if it affects his people but if it happens to others he will laugh and cheer it on

[FlamesAddiction]

Alright, so side bar question here.

Assuming Ukraine wins in the end and establishes control over its borders. How do you reintegrate the roughly 3 million Russians in Donetsk and Luhansk who welcomed the invasion, voted in the sham referendum to join Russia, and accepted Russian citizenship? They obviously have no interest in being Ukrainian citizens and behaved in such a way that allowed for the mass murder of Ukrainians, the mass rape of Ukrainian women, and the kidnapping of Ukrainian children. How do you welcome back into the body politic of a nation, a large number of people who want to see the nation destroyed? Especially when you consider that the demographics of the region of now changed since Ukrainians have been killed or forced to flee with many of them likely never to return, combined with new Russian settlers.

[Gemnoble]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

I've known some pretty cool Russians. Never knew they harbored that kind of lust for land theft. Actually, one of them is now living in a Baltic state as a prof at one of their universities. I think it would suck for anywhere to lose someone super-smart and very cool like her, but I guess if she has some hidden a lust to steal land she should go too. She probably shouldn't have wasted all that effort going to do a PhD abroad to get out of Russia.

The Russian government has the land lust. Not necessarily specific individual Russians and you knew that, and if you didn't, you should have.

The Russian government has said "Well it's mostly Russians anyway, let's take it." So why not remove that justification? Especially if Putin somehow remains in charge.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Gemnoble

The Russian government has the land lust. Not necessarily specific individual Russians and you knew that, and if you didn't, you should have.

The Russian government has said "Well it's mostly Russians anyway, let's take it." So why not remove that justification? Especially if Putin somehow remains in charge.

So if the murderous dictator of a neighbouring country uses you as an excuse to invade your country, that means you have to move to that neighbouring country?

How does that make sense to you?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Alright, so side bar question here.

Assuming Ukraine wins in the end and establishes control over its borders. How do you reintegrate the roughly 3 million Russians in Donetsk and Luhansk who welcomed the invasion, voted in the sham referendum to join Russia, and accepted Russian citizenship? They obviously have no interest in being Ukrainian citizens and behaved in such a way that allowed for the mass murder of Ukrainians, the mass rape of Ukrainian women, and the kidnapping of Ukrainian children. How do you welcome back into the body politic of a nation, a large number of people who want to see the nation destroyed? Especially when you consider that the demographics of the region of now changed since Ukrainians have been killed or forced to flee with many of them likely never to return, combined with new Russian settlers.

It's not really something that can be solved easily. And that was the case pre-war as well, so it's not really a new issue. Around the time of the Maidan Revolution in 2014, the majority of the populations in Crimea and Donbas supported separation from Ukraine or becoming autonomous states within a federation with Ukraine, and there was very little support for the status quo in those areas.

And it's not even just a question of ethnicity. At that point at least, ethnic Ukrainians made up a significant majority of the population in Donbas (almost 60%), but from the 2010 election, you can clearly see how divided the country was by region. Yanukovich (who was largely pro-Russian and who was eventually tossed out in the Maidan Revolution) got 80-90% support in those Ukrainian-majority areas:





And Crimea has been a Russian-majority region for almost 100 years. Even if Ukraine regained control and the demographics were restored to their pre-2014 makeup, there would probably not be a whole lot of appetite for re-joining Ukraine without essentially being an autonomous republic.

So how do you solve that? There's no real easy answer. If Ukraine does get back to its 2014 borders (which is probably exceedingly unlikely), then Crimea and Donbas are probably going to want a lot of autonomy, if not independence. But actually achieving that while maintaining peace and recovering from the war is probably going to be nearly impossible.

[PeteMoss]

TBF - the 2019 election was a lot different from that one. Russia's popularity in the Ukraine had declined greatly country wide even before this war after Crimea and their other 'semi-invasions'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_U...n,_round_1.svg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_U...%83%D1%80).svg

The pro-Russian candidates did lead in round 1 in Donbas but it was a lot lower levels than in 2010 (although it is possible that a bunch of pro-Russian candidates didn't vote in 2019).

I would assume its probably worse now for Russia in those area.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by opendoor

It's not really something that can be solved easily. And that was the case pre-war as well, so it's not really a new issue. Around the time of the Maidan Revolution in 2014, the majority of the populations in Crimea and Donbas supported separation from Ukraine or becoming autonomous states within a federation with Ukraine, and there was very little support for the status quo in those areas.

And it's not even just a question of ethnicity. At that point at least, ethnic Ukrainians made up a significant majority of the population in Donbas (almost 60%), but from the 2010 election, you can clearly see how divided the country was by region. Yanukovich (who was largely pro-Russian and who was eventually tossed out in the Maidan Revolution) got 80-90% support in those Ukrainian-majority areas:





And Crimea has been a Russian-majority region for almost 100 years. Even if Ukraine regained control and the demographics were restored to their pre-2014 makeup, there would probably not be a whole lot of appetite for re-joining Ukraine without essentially being an autonomous republic.

So how do you solve that? There's no real easy answer. If Ukraine does get back to its 2014 borders (which is probably exceedingly unlikely), then Crimea and Donbas are probably going to want a lot of autonomy, if not independence. But actually achieving that while maintaining peace and recovering from the war is probably going to be nearly impossible.

Russian majority language who didnt want anything to do with Russia.
https://www.lse.ac.uk/research/resea...ore-annexation


Among those I interviewed, there was also little support for annexation or separatism before 2014. Annexation, or separatism, seemed inconceivable and undesirable.
Instead, most of those I interviewed supported the territorial status quo. They viewed Crimea as a legitimate part of Ukraine and themselves as legitimate citizens of Ukraine.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

TBF - the 2019 election was a lot different from that one. Russia's popularity in the Ukraine had declined greatly country wide even before this war after Crimea and their other 'semi-invasions'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_U...n,_round_1.svg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_U...%83%D1%80).svg

The pro-Russian candidates did lead in round 1 in Donbas but it was a lot lower levels than in 2010 (although it is possible that a bunch of pro-Russian candidates didn't vote in 2019).

I would assume its probably worse now for Russia in those area.

The thing is though, of the two, Zelensky was seen as more pro-Russian than Poroshenko. That was one of Poroshenko's lines of attack, that Zelensky would return Ukraine to Russia's sphere of influence. And as ridiculous as it looks now, even Western publications were printing things with headlines like this:

Ukraine’s TV President Is Dangerously Pro-Russian

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/01...y-pro-russian/

That's why you can see that Poroshenko's base of support was in the more pro-European west while Zelensky's strongest region was the east. I mean, he dominated almost everywhere, but his support was definitely less strong in the western parts of the country:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ound_2.svg.png


That's not to say those areas were "pro-Russian", just that there have always been significant regional differences in how people view Ukraine and their position within it, and it's not solely due to ethnicity.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Russian majority language who didnt want anything to do with Russia.
https://www.lse.ac.uk/research/resea...ore-annexation


Among those I interviewed, there was also little support for annexation or separatism before 2014. Annexation, or separatism, seemed inconceivable and undesirable.
Instead, most of those I interviewed supported the territorial status quo. They viewed Crimea as a legitimate part of Ukraine and themselves as legitimate citizens of Ukraine.

I don't know if the evidence backs that up. This polling in 2013 and 2014 showed 35-40% support for joining Russia in Crimea:

https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&ca...6&page=1#_ftn1

That probably overstates it, but I also wasn't even really talking about annexation. My point was more that even before all of this, there wasn't a ton of support for the status quo in Crimea. By and large, Crimeans seemed to want more autonomy from Ukraine or even independence. Given that, the notion of reintegrating Crimea into Ukraine is one that is tough to envision ever really happening successfully, unless it's as a quasi-independent Republic.

[FlamesAddiction]

Keep in mind that the information and propaganda war started long before the conventional war and invasion of Crimea. Russian interference and continuous settling of ethnic Russians in Ukraine have been ongoing since the fall of the USSR. The demographics are also largely the result of past ethnic cleansing committed against Ukrainians, so if you accept independence or autonomy of Russians in Ukraine, you are justifying ethnic cleansing. It just teaches countries that you can ethnically cleanse regions and then claim it as your own if you wait long enough and use post-ethnic cleansing or post-war demographics as a justification.

[afc wimbledon]

Support to be Russian is going to be a whole lot different when the war is over, Russia has lost, looks powerless, is broke and can't afford to rebuild these regions while Ukraine look powerful and has a Marshal Plan of rebuilding with western help going on, I can see Rostov trying to work out how it can join slide into Kherson or declare itself 'Greater Crimea' and leave Russia.

Things don't go back to where they were before if Russia losses, this breaks Russia, it goes back to 1991, chaos, poverty and instability, no one wants to be saddled to that