Also Prighozin doesn't need to use the nukes to be dangerous, he can simply threaten to destroy them which would cause a significant blow to Putin's threats. Honestly the 'oh no my family' angle seems much more farfetched.
The next few days may show details of the deal.
Yes, he's alive. And I also don't think this is over. But he was also surrounded by friendly Wagner troops and was not going to be assassinated then anyways.
As for the nukes, you don't just pack these up quick and hold them hostage. They're not mobile. They took over the military base temporarily and moved on. The nukes happened to also be at the base, they were not the destination. There's also many other tactical nukes elsewhere so inactivating a few is not really much of a blackmail. This is silly speculation that not a single nuclear expert or Russian expert is paying a second of attention to. The only place I've seen this speculation is from that account you quoted that seems to be one of those guys tweeting juicy scoops for influence. I'd bet he's got a Patreon and a YouTube channel too. Prighozin doesn't have nukes and didn't start planning this 8 months ago. It's all nonsense
Edit: here's an actual Russian nuclear expert pointing out how stupid this conjecture is:
Also Prighozin doesn't need to use the nukes to be dangerous, he can simply threaten to destroy them which would cause a significant blow to Putin's threats. Honestly the 'oh no my family' angle seems much more farfetched.
So I took a look into who that person is that tweeted the nuclear weapons stuff.
Igor Shusko seems to be an American in some sites and Ukrainian in others. Apparently he was a race car driver for a few years, now somehow he's a Russian war expert?
Starting a few months after the invasion he's become extremely active on social media starting with some unverified letters apparently from the FSB through some exiled Russian source. Where it gets pretty fishy is that right in his bio is a link to a "non-profit" that solicits donations as a think tank. Depending on where you look, it's a non-profit funding his fight against Putin, a children's charity, or a think tank promoting democracy. The only person registered to the non profit is, you guessed it, Igor Shusko. No employees, no financials, no history, no information.
There's so many of these grifters
Last edited by Street Pharmacist; 06-25-2023 at 08:57 PM.
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Yes, he's alive. And I also don't think this is over. But he was also surrounded by friendly Wagner troops and was not going to be assassinated then anyways.
As for the nukes, you don't just pack these up quick and hold them hostage. They're not mobile. They took over the military base temporarily and moved on. The nukes happened to also be at the base, they were not the destination. There's also many other tactical nukes elsewhere so inactivating a few is not really much of a blackmail. This is silly speculation that not a single nuclear expert or Russian expert is paying a second of attention to. The only place I've seen this speculation is from that account you quoted that seems to be one of those guys tweeting juicy scoops for influence. I'd bet he's got a Patreon and a YouTube channel too. Prighozin doesn't have nukes and didn't start planning this 8 months ago. It's all nonsense
Did you bother to check where Voronezh-45 is on the map?
Care to explain how going on a 200km + detour in the wrong direction with heavy infantry (and taking control of the base) makes any sense for a mercenary army supposedly very shorthanded (with 5K troops over multiple areas) and rolling towards Moscow if it was solely for a sightseeing tour? Surely there are closer military bases that don't have nukes (Kursk, Belgorod) if nukes were not the objective?
Also tactical nuclear warheads are small in size, some small enough to fit on an office table.
It's speculation yes as we do not know the objective, but Wagner did indeed send a significant enough number of troops towards a destination 200km away in the middle of a mutiny / coup towards what should be a well defended base and took control of it. If you can provide a logical explanation on how that would make sense, go right ahead.
Euromaidenpress has also reported on it. Pravda has also corroborated this was planned for longer than a few days.
A number of western media sources including CNN have used gulagu.net / Vladimir Osechkin as a reliable source in the past. Igor Shusko is only parroting this source, not the source itself.
Care to explain how going on a 200km + detour in the wrong direction with heavy infantry (and taking control of the base) makes any sense for a mercenary army supposedly very shorthanded (with 5K troops over multiple areas) and rolling towards Moscow if it was solely for a sightseeing tour? Surely there are closer military bases that don't have nukes (Kursk, Belgorod) if nukes were not the objective?
Also tactical nuclear warheads are small in size, some small enough to fit on an office table.
It's speculation yes as we do not know the objective, but Wagner did indeed send a significant enough number of troops towards a destination 200km away in the middle of a mutiny / coup towards what should be a well defended base and took control of it. If you can provide a logical explanation on how that would make sense, go right ahead.
Euromaidenpress has also reported on it. Pravda has also corroborated this was planned for longer than a few days.
A number of western media sources including CNN have used gulagu.net as a reliable source in the past. Igor Shusko is only parroting this source, not the source itself.
Firstly, the only source suggesting that Prighozhin or Wagner went there was Visograd quoting Russia Freedom Legion who were nowhere near there and Wagner would likely despise. Prighozhin was going to bring his forces there to kill them. How the hell does "Russia Freedom Legion" know where Wagner went, and why are they the only ones who know it?
Secondly, it appears that trusting Google to find a nuclear arsenal is a bad idea as that is not the actual location of Voronezh-45. Stop giving these people attention.
This war is being fought in the age of social media and there's a lot of crap out there. Ask yourself this: if this was a real concern, why is there not a single Russian expert, Ukraine expert, nuclear expert, anyone else, concerned? If there could be nuclear warheads in the possession of a madman, but no one is concerned? Why are they all saying this is stupid?
Edit: so I looked into the sourcing of that Euromaiden article. It sources Gulag.net, which sources a fellow named Vladimir Osechkin who just happens to be Igor Shusko's buddy as he is the source for basically all of Igor's nonsense. This whole idea that this was planned 8 months ago was not discovered 8 months ago, it was discovered..... yesterday. Vladimir Osechkin is completely full of poop. Seriously, check your sources
Last edited by Street Pharmacist; 06-25-2023 at 09:36 PM.
I'm not so sure about this. Can't find any sources on this anywhere and I really doubt Ukraine would be quiet about this
Valerii Shershen is who reported it...who do you think he speaks for?
bbc.com/news/world-europe-65873831
It's use is also extremely recent and not validated. And considering how slow western media was to report on a historical event like a mutiny / coup against Moscow, surely the slowness of reporting on this should not be a surprise?
Your current incessant push to discredit any and all statements you don't agree with, even when they come from sound sources that have been used by western media on many occasions prior and are even spokeperson (in the case of Shershen), seems rather peculiar for you.
Secondly, it appears that trusting Google to find a nuclear arsenal is a bad idea as that is not the actual location of Voronezh-45. Stop giving these people attention.
It's all the same place. Where do you suggest it is?
Quote:
Edit: so I looked into the sourcing of that Euromaiden article. It sources Gulag.net, which sources a fellow named Vladimir Osechkin who just happens to be Igor Shusko's buddy as he is the source for basically all of Igor's nonsense. This whole idea that this was planned 8 months ago was not discovered 8 months ago, it was discovered..... yesterday. Vladimir Osechkin is completely full of poop. Seriously, check your sources
That Vladimir Osechkin is the one you are calling completely full of poop. You must think BBC, France24, CNN and CBS are all poop too for giving him interviews?
I'm not so sure Prigozhin couldn't have taken Moscow, but I'm not sure he realized it himself. Obviously he wasn't willing to risk it.
You can stage a coup with a really small force, if your troops aee loyal and no one on the other side is eager to die in defense of the previous regime.
Judging from the reactions in Rostov and the lack of pushback from Russian military at basicallyany point, Russians are about ready to accept any change as improvement.
In any case this was an obvious sign that Putin has trouble holding things together.
Last edited by Itse; 06-25-2023 at 10:43 PM.
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Valerii Shershen is who reported it...who do you think he speaks for?
bbc.com/news/world-europe-65873831
It's use is also extremely recent and not validated. And considering how slow western media was to report on a historical event like a mutiny / coup against Moscow, surely the slowness of reporting on this should not be a surprise?
Your current incessant push to discredit any and all statements you don't agree with, even when they come from sound sources that have been used by western media on many occasions prior and are even spokeperson (in the case of Shershen), seems rather peculiar for you.
I don't want to gum this thread up with arguing, but my point is that we're consuming news in the social media age and it's incumbent on everyone to call out irresponsible "news" when we see it. I'm not pushing to "discredit any and all statements I don't agree with". I'm calling out misinformation. We all should
As for the chemical weapons headline, the quote from Shershen did not really support the headline. It was "We recorded the fact of dropping a prohibited chemical munition with an aerosol-suffocating effect on one of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The wind was [blowing] toward the enemy"
That's it. No other information. And only that one quote found in one outlet with all other references lining back to that one story from one outlet. No one serious is talking about it. Zelensky is going to be quiet about Russia using chemical weapons? I doubt it. Could it be? Sure. But there's a lot more clicks to be generated by scaring everyone into clicking than by not making scary headlines.
That Vladimir Osechkin is the one you are calling completely full of poop. You must think BBC, France24, CNN and CBS are all poop too for giving him interviews?
You know "virtual globe trotting" just uses google maps, right? The base may be there, but the storage location isn't right there. A few posts up I shared the tweet from Pavel Podvig (a Russian nuclear weapons expert) that says that particular location isn't the nuclear storage facility
Here's people who actually know how this works and don't need to Google it or make money by selling Twitter subscriptions or phoney non profits. There's not a need to scare people into thinking a madman stole nukes
You can usually get a good read on who's reliable by looking at what people have said in the past and compare it to what actually happened. And a 30 second look through Shusko guy's feed and it's pretty clear he's just saying whatever will get him attention.
So many grifters and OSINT people have popped up as a result of the war and they're basically all useless. So much propaganda that needs to be viewed extremely critically.
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Seems like we should expect reprisals against the perpetrators.
There are already horrifying videos out there on russian social media of troops carrying out forest executions by slitting the throats their own comrades who voiced support for Wagner.
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You know "virtual globe trotting" just uses google maps, right? The base may be there, but the storage location isn't right there. A few posts up I shared the tweet from Pavel Podvig (a Russian nuclear weapons expert) that says that particular location isn't the nuclear storage facility
Here's people who actually know how this works and don't need to Google it or make money by selling Twitter subscriptions or phoney non profits. There's not a need to scare people into thinking a madman stole nukes
Did you check the coordinate I gave? It's slightly south of where google places the word 'Voronezh-45' but still in the same base.
Pavel even admitted later in his chain he's been deliberately obtuse on the location of the building, that the whole thing is the base, but the storage within the same base is a bit further south. We are talking a few hundred meters here.
The photo is part of the facility and correct.
As to speculation of it being captured or not as we do not have video evidence of such, what we do know and can corroborate is a Ka 52 helicopter was downed in the direction to this base, south east of Voronezh. You didn't acknowledge my reply on Vladimir Osechkin.
