[Trade] Oilers trade Smid and Olivier Roy to Flames for Horak and Brossoit

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

A viedo is evidence.

You watching the video is not (and neither is me watching it).

We derive opinions from watching the video.

As we do by looking at advanced stats

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

Thanks - and very fair points, I did not consider that in my analysis.

Still, the point remains, starting with the 23 teams I mentioned earlier, how many of them have such extenuating cirumstances that the have since added sufficient cap space to add a Smid? I'm guessing there would still be sufficient teams to find a market for him, otherwise presumably the Flames wouldn't have had to give up anything for him?

They gave up pretty close to next to nothing

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

That's some good work Lou

I would assume a satisfactory IP address search would indicate I am not the same guy.

A quick look at his posts would suggest to me that the topics discussed by myself and him appear to be somewhat similar, but he does not even seem to be trying to engage in a two sided discussion. And he seems to quite enjoy the Oilers.

I have said almost nothing good about them except for suggesting that they are not automatically dumb for using Petry over Smid as a puck mover, that it may have been done to empluy best usage of their personnel's skillset.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

As we do by looking at advanced stats

True. But I'm also not saying that my opinion is 100% right. I'm simply saying it's worth discussing.

But the actual stats don't change from one opinion to another. They are verifiable and can be looked up. They are the same on your computer and mine.

I used the same stats you could do make an opinion. I am all ears to hear your opinion from using the exact same stats, or others of your choice. I am willing to change my tune if you were to offer a persuasive argument with some verifable evidence beyond what you have seen. I don't personally know you, so it is difficult to agree with your snyopsis simply from what you saw. I could just as easily say I think Smid looks awful therefor I am right, however, that is unlikely to change your opinion because you have no idea who I am or my experience and knowledge of hockey.

[JiriHrdina]

I suspect you know full well it is easy to get around IP checks. Which is fine. You aren't doing anything to necessitate a ban. Just watch knocking the board you have just joined

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

They gave up pretty close to next to nothing

I made a similar point in one of my first posts saying I didn't think either was an essential piece.

At the same time it wasn't long ago that a lot of Flames fans were quite high on Horak and thought he would be a fit as a good checking line player. He still has that skill set and has youth on his side and could yet transform himself into an NHL player. He has some value, but I agree, not a significant loss by any means.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

True. But I'm also not saying that my opinion is 100% right. I'm simply saying it's worth discussing.

But the actual stats don't change from one opinion to another. They are verifiable and can be looked up. They are the same on your computer and mine.

I used the same stats you could do make an opinion. I am all ears to hear your opinion from using the exact same stats, or others of your choice. I am willing to change my tune if you were to offer a persuasive argument with some verifable evidence beyond what you have seen. I don't personally know you, so it is difficult to agree with your snyopsis simply from what you saw. I could just as easily say I think Smid looks awful therefor I am right, however, that is unlikely to change your opinion because you have no idea who I am or my experience and knowledge of hockey.

The stat is verifiable but whether or not it holds any merit is subjective. For a player like Smid I think Corsi is a very poor metric to use

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I suspect you know full well it is easy to get around IP checks. Which is fine. You aren't doing anything to necessitate a ban. Just watch knocking the board you have just joined

Lol, I actually don't know much how it works. I'm not that computer savvy. You are probably right, but I assumed it wouldn't be that difficult to check.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

I made a similar point in one of my first posts saying I didn't think either was an essential piece.

At the same time it wasn't long ago that a lot of Flames fans were quite high on Horak and thought he would be a fit as a good checking line player. He still has that skill set and has youth on his side and could yet transform himself into an NHL player. He has some value, but I agree, not a significant loss by any means.

Horak's issue is he doesn't play big enough to be effective in the bottom six and his offensive skill set isn't good enough to be in the top six. He's a perfect guy to go up and down from the AHL for years but nothing more.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

The stat is verifiable but whether or not it holds any merit is subjective. For a player like Smid I think Corsi is a very poor metric to use

See, I have no problem with that opinion.

If you had just explained that initially, and perhaps elaborated as to why, I would think that would be an interesting rebuttal worth discussing and IMO would be an engaging conversation.

Nobody did that.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

Thanks - and very fair points, I did not consider that in my analysis.

Still, the point remains, starting with the 23 teams I mentioned earlier, how many of them have such extenuating cirumstances that the have since added sufficient cap space to add a Smid? I'm guessing there would still be sufficient teams to find a market for him, otherwise presumably the Flames wouldn't have had to give up anything for him?

Most of the ones using the LTIR would not be able to make room for Smid at the time of the trade. At least not without some additional housekeeping.

Go down the line with those with 3M+ cap (and remembering that was less when the trade occurred). Pittsburgh is spending 69M on their roster, they have nearly 4M in "cap space" because Martin, Scuderi, Vokoun are on LTIR. Toronto is spending 67M but have 4M+ "cap space" because Bozak and Bolland are on LTIR. Columbus is spending 64M but have cap space because Horton is on LTIR. Keep going through the list and it's going to be the same. Once all these players start coming back they no longer have the listed cap space, they no longer would be able to keep Smid without major changes. Pretty much the only team that is using LTIR today and would have been able to take on Smid was Carolina because Pitkanen is out for the season. There is a reason that over half the teams in the league are using the LTIR, it's because they need the cap relief that comes with it.

So now you're looking at only a very small handful of teams that could have taken on the cap space the Oilers needed to sign Bryzgalov. Smid, like you suggested, wasn't the only way to do so though. So maybe they would have started to look at other options or bigger deals (like Hemsky for example) if the Flames didn't offer them at least Horak. But the fact remains that Smid was a pure and simple salary dump trade. Oilers needed cap space, they needed it fast, but very few teams had to offer it. The Flames got a bargain, pretty much regardless of what you view Smid as.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Horak's issue is he doesn't play big enough to be effective in the bottom six and his offensive skill set isn't good enough to be in the top six. He's a perfect guy to go up and down from the AHL for years but nothing more.

The first part can be learned. He wouldn't be the first guy to learn how to play in a checking role. The same description could be applied to Andrew Shaw in each of his three draft years.

But I agree, there isn't anything particularly compelling as to why Horak has a better chance than the next AHL guy.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Most of the ones using the LTIR would not be able to make room for Smid at the time of the trade. At least not without some additional housekeeping.

Go down the line with those with 3M+ cap (and remembering that was less when the trade occurred). Pittsburgh is spending 69M on their roster, they have nearly 4M in "cap space" because Martin, Scuderi, Vokoun are on LTIR. Toronto is spending 67M but have 4M+ "cap space" because Bozak and Bolland are on LTIR. Columbus is spending 64M but have cap space because Horton is on LTIR. Keep going through the list and it's going to be the same. Once all these players start coming back they no longer have the listed cap space, they no longer would be able to keep Smid without major changes. Pretty much the only team that is using LTIR today and would have been able to take on Smid was Carolina because Pitkanen is out for the season. There is a reason that over half the teams in the league are using the LTIR, it's because they need the cap relief that comes with it.

So now you're looking at only a very small handful of teams that could have taken on the cap space the Oilers needed to sign Bryzgalov. Smid, like you suggested, wasn't the only way to do so though. So maybe they would have started to look at other options or bigger deals (like Hemsky for example) if the Flames didn't offer them at least Horak. But the fact remains that Smid was a pure and simple salary dump trade. Oilers needed cap space, they needed it fast, but very few teams had to offer it. The Flames got a bargain, pretty much regardless of what you view Smid as.

Thanks. The Flames clearly got a bargain as far as personnel they had to give up. I guess the question is whether Smid was even worthy of the $3.5 cap hit, which could be argued on both sides.

He certainly wouldn't be the cheapest guy around at that cap hit, but also not the worst (ie. Komisarek).

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

The first part can be learned. He wouldn't be the first guy to learn how to play in a checking role. The same description could be applied to Andrew Shaw in each of his three draft years.

But I agree, there isn't anything particularly compelling as to why Horak has a better chance than the next AHL guy.

Actually with Shaw the Hawks figured they had a good bottom six guy...it's the offence that is a surprise.
Horak is going the other way needing to reshape himself from a junior scorer to two way pro. Not easy and many fail at it

[puckluck2]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

Thanks. The Flames clearly got a bargain as far as personnel they had to give up. I guess the question is whether Smid was even worthy of the $3.5 cap hit, which could be argued on both sides.

He certainly wouldn't be the cheapest guy around at that cap hit, but also not the worst (ie. Komisarek).

Komisarek has a cap hit of 700k.

[RichKlit]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Horak's issue is he doesn't play big enough to be effective in the bottom six and his offensive skill set isn't good enough to be in the top six. He's a perfect guy to go up and down from the AHL for years but nothing more.

I always liked Horak but I always felt that when the Flames become a good team he wouldnt be on the team. Just my opinion but i dont think winning teams have a lot of Horak type guys.

[bubbsy]

this thread has gone off the rails a bit. in the end, the flames got a quite servicable defenceman who is willing to play the game in a way that all good teams require (take the hit to make a play, get down to block a shot, get nasty in front of the net kind of way). Flames needed that, have a pretty crappy d-core, and then injuries on top of that.

The fact that we got one from a rival who's d is much worse than the flames (in all the regards mentioned above), and the fact it cost little to the flames is just gravy. Then, looking at it from the oilers perspective, where they gave up one of the only players who has those qualities or knows anything about playing defense is even better. THEN when you consider the MacT, i'm impatient/bold moves new GM trading this player for players that aren't helping the oilers become a playoff team in at least 3 years is even better.

Can't tell if you're a closet/cloaked oiler fan or not, but almost any NHL fan can find this trade just laughable. Oilers suck, their management is flat out stupid, and the fact that they are a flames rival makes it all the more fun. Does that burn to read or are you really not an oilers fan here?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

Can't tell if you're a closet/cloaked oiler fan or not, but almost any NHL fan can find this trade just laughable. Oilers suck, their management is flat out stupid, and the fact that they are a flames rival makes it all the more fun. Does that burn to read or are you really not an oilers fan here?

All the guy is saying is it wasn't some kind of great trade because it was for a supporting player, not a mainstay. Doesn't have to be an Oilers fan to make that assessment. And he's been a lot more deliberate and even-handed expressing his opinion than the posters who jumped down his throat. IMHO, these sorts of posts bring more to the table than gifs of dancing TV characters.

[Vinny01]

I really think this was a great trade for Calgary. Horak is a fringe NHLer at this point and unlikely to ever be a solid regular in the league. Brossiot reminds me so much of Keetley and was an expendable piece for the Flames. Smid is a valuable player now and moving forward. He is only 27/28 and the guy lays it all on the ice. He is a warrior, big body that will hit and block shots all game long. It still surprises me that Edmonton would part with one of their only gritty players but they needed to sign Bryz

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

All the guy is saying is it wasn't some kind of great trade because it was for a supporting player, not a mainstay. Doesn't have to be an Oilers fan to make that assessment. And he's been a lot more deliberate and even-handed expressing his opinion than the posters who jumped down his throat. IMHO, these sorts of posts bring more to the table than gifs of dancing TV characters.

not every trade is for a blockbuster/1st line player in order to be deemed a success.

Flames got a defenceman who's willing to battle, a guy who's ranked #9 in the entire league for blocked shots, and is definitely a mainstay anywhere in the #4-6 spot in the dcorpse. They traded him for a horak/broissot.... as an oiler fan, how many trades can oiler fans live through that only provide potential hope 3 years down the road??

in the end, the flames got the better NHL'er today, and we can debate this point 3 years down the road, but i am confident it will be a close call even then.