This is a rebuild

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Kucherov: drafted 58th overall.
Vasilevskiy: 19th.
Hedman: 2nd.

Apparently you don't need to win the lottery to get talented players. Which is what the argument has been about all along.

That argument is flawed regarding Tampa
Although they managed to get Kuch, Vas and Point lower , they started the build with Stamkos and Hedman. Two top foundation picks

[Jay Random]

Actually, the argument isn't flawed.

There have been multiple threads on CP about this, detailing the exact math involved. Having a top-3 pick does not significantly improve your odds of winning the Stanley Cup. Roughly 90% of Cup winners are drawn from the 90% of teams that have one, and 10% of winners are drawn from the 10% of teams that don't have one.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

If this is true, Flames are staying mediocre for a long time. Time to stock up draft picks make the picks and keep doing it for another few years.

Time will tell. Nashville is trying something similar. Vegas and Seattle were both built this way.

As much as people want to pretend otherwise and just lump it in with some “mushy middle” nonsense of constant minor tweaks, this approach is actually pretty new. I’m pretty interested to see it play out, honestly, and I think it’d be pretty foolish to write it off before seeing how things play out.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Time will tell. Nashville is trying something similar. Vegas and Seattle were both built this way.

As much as people want to pretend otherwise and just lump it in with some “mushy middle” nonsense of constant minor tweaks, this approach is actually pretty new. I’m pretty interested to see it play out, honestly, and I think it’d be pretty foolish to write it off before seeing how things play out.

Dallas is currently a team that has built a contender without tanking

They had one lowly year and lucked out by winning the lottery and jumping up to grab Heiskenen but the rest of their roster is built through very good drafting, some solid trades and the odd smart UFA signing.

But in order to do this you have to get Robertson's, Hintz's and the like later in the draft, instead of Stromgrens and Kuznetsov's

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Dallas is currently a team that has built a contender without tanking

They had one lowly year and lucked out by winning the lottery and jumping up to grab Heiskenen but the rest of their roster is built through very good drafting, some solid trades and the odd smart UFA signing.

But in order to do this you have to get Robertson's, Hintz's and the like later in the draft, instead of Stromgrens and Kuznetsov's

fortunately despite the notable whiffs , there is precedent that the Flames can accomplish this (although I'd love a sweet sweet top 3 superstar too)


https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/calgar...over-the-years

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Actually, the argument isn't flawed.

There have been multiple threads on CP about this, detailing the exact math involved. Having a top-3 pick does not significantly improve your odds of winning the Stanley Cup. Roughly 90% of Cup winners are drawn from the 90% of teams that have one, and 10% of winners are drawn from the 10% of teams that don't have one.

This has been fleshed out alot but theres a key difference in having a player drafted top-3, which almost every team has including the flames, verse having a player that you've drafted top 3.


The only teams to win the cup in the last decade without having a top-3 picked player that they draft are:

Blues (had pietrangelo though, they drafted 4th oa)
Golden knights (recent expansion team)


If you go back 20 years to 2004 you can throw in bruins, ducks and wings.

So 2/10 last 10 years and 5/20 cup teams didn't have a top 3 player they drafted.
If you change it to a top 5 player they drafted that number is further reduced by half.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

I hate their apprehensivenese around "rebuild"

You're rebuilding. So what? Embrace that. Shows weakness to walk on eggshells around the obvious after trading away 5 ufas! Who do you think you're kidding.

[Roof-Daddy]

I don't really care what they do or don't call it, just don't eff it up his time.

[blender]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Are you suggesting that Point is better than McKinnon because he had 1 more cup?

Come on. You are smarter than that; you know what he means.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by traptor

This has been fleshed out alot but theres a key difference in having a player drafted top-3, which almost every team has including the flames, verse having a player that you've drafted top 3.

The numbers only include teams that draft a player top-3. The difference is already accounted for.

So 2/10 last 10 years and 5/20 cup teams didn't have a top 3 player they drafted.
If you change it to a top 5 player they drafted that number is further reduced by half.

Right, but how many teams DON'T win the Stanley Cup and have a top-5 player that they drafted? Nearly all of them.

Don't make me explain the concept of correlation to you… AGAIN.

[Kipper_3434]

There's still a very real chance that they use cap space and picks to aquire quality players and get back in the playoff mix. So not necessarily a rebuild til after the draft.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

There's still a very real chance that they use cap space and picks to aquire quality players and get back in the playoff mix. So not necessarily a rebuild til after the draft.

I can definitely see them luring a quality UFA this summer with a nice contract to help out the roster.

Maybe two.

[ComixZone]

Just as important as the elite #1 centre is the elite #1 defenceman.

We still don’t have that either. We have a #2 in Weegar, and a #3 in Andersson.’

When it comes to rebuilds, I still hear a lot of what I believe to be complete mis-assessments of the failures in Edmonton and Buffalo.

I don’t believe there to be any truth to this perceived “losing culture” when it comes to the players - I think these failed rebuilds are 100% the fault of the organizations being outright terrible at drafting. Nothing to do with anything magic in the water, or a losing culture with certain players but rather just a complete inability to hit on any picks other than their top-end first rounders. They fail to draft correctly, and then have to go scrounge through free agency and make asset-depleting trades in an effort to fill the gaps that should be done through internal development.

Everytime I hear someone bring up Edmonton or Buffalo as the reason why the Flames shouldn’t rebuild, I cringe. Edmonton is a better team than we have been in spite of their horrid drafting - which speaks to the value of getting those top players at the top of the draft.

If the Flames could get a 1st overall, and another one or two top-10 picks I think they could actually build a Championship quality team thanks to how good they are at pulling players throughout the draft…but the lack of those top picks will prevent them from becoming a Tampa/Colorado/Chicago/LA.

[PepsiFree]

LA did it with one top ten pick.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

LA did it with one top ten pick.

True, but they also did it on the backs of:

2005 - 11th Overall: Anze Kopitar
2013 - 13th Overall: Duston Brown
2008 - 3rd Overall: Drew Doughty

and also made some of the most significant trades in modern NHL history when they acquired Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, and they were only able to do that because they had spent years building an asset base that was viewed as being valuable enough to pull off those trades.

2005 - 3rd Overall: Jack Johnson (Traded)
2003 - 11th Overall: Jeff Carter (Trade - Team Canada player)
2003 - 24th Overall: Mike Richards (Trade - Team Canada player)

And then A LOT of excellent internal development/drafting.

If we can snag an elite #1 centre at 11 like Kopitar (could Berkly Catton slide that far? I think the end of this 2023/2024 could be an absolutely massive launching point for the future), then that makes a lot possible.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

I can definitely see them luring a quality UFA this summer with a nice contract to help out the roster.

Maybe two.

Go look at the upcoming UFA list.

I don't see anyone on there that you'd actually want to give a big contract to and/or would pick Calgary over other suitors.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Go look at the upcoming UFA list.

I don't see anyone on there that you'd actually want to give a big contract to and/or would pick Calgary over other suitors.

We'll go give Sam Reinhart $11M AAV, and he'll drop to 16 goals next season.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

We'll go give Sam Reinhart $11M AAV, and he'll drop to 16 goals next season.

Could you imagine? Another 8 figure AAV winger?

And any of the top C's in the UFA class are all 30+ and I don't see any of them picking CGY anyways.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

We'll go give Sam Reinhart $11M AAV, and he'll drop to 16 goals next season.

1 year and trade him at the deadline half retained

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by dino7c

1 year and trade him at the deadline half retained

Someone is probably going to give him $70+ million this off season, IMO I don't see him taking a 1 year deal anywhere.