Russia invades Ukraine

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by calculoso

Thanks. Don’t speak Russian, never watched Russian TV to know they are unusual, never would have known.

Yes I was perplexed with the subs since I've watched these shows a lot and these are Putin's mouthpieces and they always tow the party line. They would never undermine the mobilization to that extent or call each other out as it weakens Putin's message. The most they have done is call out the recruitment leadership and say that they are failing their great leader.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Can someone in O&G confirm or deny if Canada and the US could supply natural gas to the EU on a temporary basis? Like, could we ramp up production now and send it over on tankers in time for winter?

No, we have 0 export capacity. We can only sell to gulf coast for export today.

[Fuzzy14]

Canada should have been in a position to step in and stand with our allies on the energy front.

20+years of Canadian energy policy/economic suicide has landed us in the position where we wouldn't be in a position to help for years and years to come, even if we jumped on it right now.

[SebC]

Britain: we have the greatest queue in the world!
Russia: hold my vodka!

[burn_this_city]

US sending another 18 Himars to Ukraine, on top of the 12 that were already game changers, hopefully cancels out the 300k mobiliks.

[Jacks]

Looks like that Niki Proshin Youtube guy got out of Russia. Smart of him to pretend that he wasn't going until he got out of the country.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

US sending another 18 Himars to Ukraine, on top of the 12 that were already game changers, hopefully cancels out the 300k mobiliks.

I wouldn't waste HIMAR rockets on conscripted grunts. The HIMARs will be used for the assault on Donetsk and Luhansk.

[Fuzz]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia...599203?cmp=rss

Russia now setting up draft offices at border crossings. Surprised it took this long. Russians will soon feel trapped, their options being go to war/death, or fight the government. Hopefully they choose the later. I don't see this ending any other way.

[Street Pharmacist]

As for the Nordstream sabotage, some game theory:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575137413340561411

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575137421481676800

[chemgear]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1574938449853190144

[Street Pharmacist]

And there's this:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575228136253706240

[chemgear]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575113910658678786

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

As for the Nordstream sabotage, some game theory:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575137413340561411

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575137421481676800

Nice, our thread nailed that series of thought yesterday, almost to a t.

I think it's becoming clear that it was Russia, now to understand their exact angle...

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Nice, our thread nailed that series of thought yesterday, almost to a t.

I think it's becoming clear that it was Russia, now to understand their exact angle...

Their angle?

They just mobilized a million men, collapsed their economy, raving like lunatics about nukes.

And now right after their sham referendum and plan to formally annex the regions, the Kremlin is deciding to postpone the annexation

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575197790401007616

Turns out that annexing Ukraine territory that is imminently about to fall in Ukrainian hands automatically proving that Russia is losing hard, while simultaneously explaining why mobilization is needed to angry Russians, makes for a very very bad look.

There is no angle. They are insane and head deep in their own pile of #### and have truck loads of #### ready to pile on their own heads. The moment they stop piling on the ####, they will face the reality that they are head deep in ####.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Their angle?

They just mobilized a million men, collapsed their economy, raving like lunatics about nukes.

And now right after their sham referendum and plan to formally annex the regions, the Kremlin is deciding to postpone the annexation

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575197790401007616

Turns out that annexing Ukraine territory that is imminently about to fall in Ukrainian hands automatically proving that Russia is losing hard, while simultaneously explaining why mobilization is needed to angry Russians, makes for a very very bad look.

There is no angle. They are insane and head deep in their own pile of #### and have truck loads of #### ready to pile on their own heads. The moment they stop piling on the ####, they will face the reality that they are head deep in ####.

You're allowing too much emotion into this. Read the thread I quoted in the post and you'll understand what I said about angle.

In short:

- Is Putin trying to prove he can strike european infrastructure?
- Is Putin trying to tie hands for military/populace/any potential successor in ensuring continued state of war?
- Is another actor within Russia trying to tie the government into this position?

Etc.

Yes, Russia has gone of the rails. But they're very, very likely still approaching the war effort with some elements of strategy. This type of action isn't like mobilizing a huge amount of troops, it's a precision strike. That probably doesn't happen in a flailing sense.

[activeStick]

I thought Nordstream 2 would have potentially allowed Russia to bypass Poland and Ukraine in delivery of gas to Europe?

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Yes, Russia has gone of the rails. But they're very, very likely still approaching the war effort with some elements of strategy. This type of action isn't like mobilizing a huge amount of troops, it's a precision strike. That probably doesn't happen in a flailing sense.

Not many believe this to be true Monny. Its a delay tactic period in a weak attempt to somehow save face. It will fail.

The USA is shipping another 18 HIMARS today, on top of the 16 that have been HIGHLY effective at destroying the Russian command posts and ammunition dumps.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575206419061563392

I think the Ukrainians are going to decapitate the Russians sooner than you think. The ONLY option the Russians have is the nuclear option, and if used, Russia will cease to exist. They do not scare anyone any longer, it was all bluster.

Mark Hertling thinks it will be a slaughter. I think I believe him.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1574895107437993991

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Nice, our thread nailed that series of thought yesterday, almost to a t.

I think it's becoming clear that it was Russia, now to understand their exact angle...

It is not clear at all that it was Russia.

My money is still on the US.

They benefit from high natural gas prices & restricted supply.
Russia has no more ability to keep the Europeans from freezing this winter which gives the US more leverage over both Russia & Germany.
Keeps the strength of USD high.

I know the pipeline was turned off, but I think it was pretty clear Russia was going to use it to get sanctions removed. They even said as much. Now it wouldn't even matter if the sanctions were removed as they can't turn on the gas again.

The US is really benefiting from all of this.
The EURO and English Pound has dropped a lot compared to the USD, which I'd imagine has a lot to do with energy independence.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Yes, Russia has gone of the rails. But they're very, very likely still approaching the war effort with some elements of strategy. This type of action isn't like mobilizing a huge amount of troops, it's a precision strike. That probably doesn't happen in a flailing sense.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Bulge

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operat...ring_Awakening

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nero_Decree

Putin is desperate and clinging to power, the moment he wavers and shows weakness he will be instantly killed.

That's the only thing that keeps Russia going right now.

Quite frankly I fully believe he will use nukes and the US and NATO firmly believes it is not a bluff. There's a very good reason why NATO went off the grid a few weeks ago.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Spot on - issue is you need to get the product to the water, liquify it to load onto ships, transport it, offload the liquid on the other side and regasify, and get into pipelines infrastructure.

Truth is Europe didn't plan for this and hamstrung themselves. Canada, is Canada and we let 2 decades of regulation hamper both our ability to get product to tide water and to build the LNG facilities to liquify it.

If Europe didn’t see the need for LNG until now how would east coast LNG terminals in Canada have been justified?