Dan Vladar and his advanced stats

[ST20]

The original post brought up two years of numbers. I am not sure why you are focusing on the last two games.

Management's stubbornness to try to recoup value on Vladar will result in a lost year of development for Wolf if they continue prioritizing his minutes over Wolf. It could also result in some lost goodwill if Wolf does pan out and the Flames find themselves trying to sign another key American player in the future.

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

How about we look at it another way.

Rewatch the 13 goals over the last 2 games, and with no model whatsoever, ask yourself ‘should he / the average goalie have stopped that’?

The xG for those games were 3.21 and 3.02

Did those games against the Canes and Avs look like 3-2 games to you?

Because that’s what the fancy stats say they were, and that’s why some people are questioning the tending

Be honest

Are those what nice tight 3-2 games look like?
Or did they look very different in terms of skill and execution from both sides

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Toonage

He gets beat over the shoulder(s).

A lot.

Ive been saying the same thing since last year.

Im no goalie guru but have been around it most of my life to varying degrees.

This guy has never been anything more than a big body with flawed fundamentals IMO.

He drops to his knees so quickly (and often unnecessarily) and exposes two large holes over his shoulders....NHL shooters are way too good too give them such a target. Then to compound things, both his glove and blocker hands are a bit slow at best.

He is good in tight and during scrambles where he uses his length to cover a lot of area along the ice.....but really that's it.


Just not a very good NHL G.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm always honest, first off.

I agree to a point for sure on the last two games. They were not that close. But score effects changed the trend in both.

Both games had the other team run up the score and then call it a day letting the Flames take over for the final 15-25 minutes and even up the end results.

If a goalie is ranked 63rd out of 63 goalies in low danger save percentage he's probably not having a great season.

I agree, no way he is pleased with his season. Nor would anyone call it great

But there are a few nights in there that are statistically quite bad where he wasn’t actually bad (imo) by the eye test.

You don’t see these goalies in Boston having 6-8 cross seam one timers to deal with. And look at our old pal David Rittich. Is he now a genius at goaltending? Was he really an awful goaltender for a few years?

Team defence is really a huge factor in this. Specifically breakdowns

The Flames goalies were both in a hole at the beginning of the year when they laid an egg the first 10 games, still figuring out the system. Marky’s been great for a while and has had the quantity of games to right the ship, plus played lights out. I’ve found the team to be up and down with Vladar, and simply very bad with Wolf

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I agree, no way he is pleased with his season. Nor would anyone call it great

But there are a few nights in there that are statistically quite bad where he wasn’t actually bad (imo) by the eye test.

You don’t see these goalies in Boston having 6-8 cross seam one timers to deal with. And look at our old pal David Rittich. Is he now a genius at goaltending? Was he really an awful goaltender for a few years?

Team defence is really a huge factor in this. Specifically breakdowns

The Flames goalies were both in a hole at the beginning of the year when they laid an egg the first 10 games, still figuring out the system. Marky’s been great for a while and has had the quantity of games to right the ship, plus played lights out. I’ve found the team to be up and down with Vladar, and simply very bad with Wolf

I don't think you and I are as far apart on this stuff as we used to be.

It took about 10,000 words each to get here though.

My game story said it's tough to fault him on a lot of the goals so I agree to an extent. But then NHL goaltenders save 87% of the tough ones so you can't just dismiss a game where the team lets him down either.

But yeah rough season.

[GioforPM]

I think you need Vladar in for a series of games at a time to really know where he is. He wasn't even supposed to play last game.

I do think he needs better coaching because I think he is out of control a lot, and tracks the puck less well than Markstrom and other goalies. I do think he has ability and I hate to give up on a guy like that.

[Kipper_3434]

Vladar being dead last at stopping easiest shots is a huge red flag. There are way worse teams than the flames and their goalies aren't dead last so can't just blame the team.

[Delthefunky]

Originally Posted by neo45

A few insiders have reported that he could fetch a 2nd round pick. I don’t really get it but that would be cool. Seravalli, who is usually pretty accurate on our trade returns, is high on him. I think also Lebrun or Friedman recently mentioned the 2nd rounder being the ask

Just seems high based on his numbers

Reto Berra!

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think you need Vladar in for a series of games at a time to really know where he is. He wasn't even supposed to play last game.

I do think he needs better coaching because I think he is out of control a lot, and tracks the puck less well than Markstrom and other goalies. I do think he has ability and I hate to give up on a guy like that.

What concerns me is that he's in year three with the Flames and he's not really improved in the aspects you are talking about as that's exactly the way he was in his first season. It's hard to judge backup goaltenders when they aren't getting a lot of work but at the same time there's kind of a minimum standard for any NHL goaltender and he's not meeting that. If they move Markstrom over the summer we are going to find out what the Flames have in both Vladar and even the early returns for Wolf because they would both get ample chances to start.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

What concerns me is that he's in year three with the Flames and he's not really improved in the aspects you are talking about as that's exactly the way he was in his first season. It's hard to judge backup goaltenders when they aren't getting a lot of work but at the same time there's kind of a minimum standard for any NHL goaltender and he's not meeting that. If they move Markstrom over the summer we are going to find out what the Flames have in both Vladar and even the early returns for Wolf because they would both get ample chances to start.

Like I said, better coaching (and maybe more concsistent game time).

[Finger Cookin]

Trade Vladar for pucks, or whatever you can get. Circle back with Jersey and consummate that deal for Markstrom. Sign a vet who's willing to be a 1B or a 2 but who has had some experience and success as a pro, pair him with Wolf, and see what happens. This is going to be a young team that loses a lot next year, might as well lean into it a bit. Wolf needs NHL minutes and to experience the ebbs and flows and ups and downs of an NHL season.

Broissoit, Raanta, Reimer, Talbot, Jones, Wedgewood are the kind of vets I have in mind. Hell, bring back Rittich. They're a stopgap for a couple of seasons until Wolf takes the #1 spot and runs with it or until we otherwise acquire a longterm #1 candidate.

[Jason14h]

It’s amazing the same team gets all the luck ! Luckiest lucks who ever did luck

And then we get stuck with the team the NHL has a conspiracy to keep down and is the most unlucky team in the NHL!

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

It’s amazing the same team gets all the luck ! Luckiest lucks who ever did luck

And then we get stuck with the team the NHL has a conspiracy to keep down and is the most unlucky team in the NHL!

Said nobody, but what the hell, keep beating that strawman. The straw might not be dead yet.

[Blaster86]

Yeah, the Canucks are the team that there's a conspiracy to keep down. Everyone knows that.

[Caged Great]

Vladar’s flashes of higher end skill are enough in my opinion to throw him out there as a starter for a year or two. Just like miromanov, and the other young d have lots of potential, it comes down to needing an opportunity to see if there’s anything there there.

Vladar has not really had a run of games where he was the go to guy except early last season when he was stellar. The flames need to give him an actual shot to see if the potential can be realized or turn it over to wolf and carry on.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Vladar’s flashes of higher end skill are enough in my opinion to throw him out there as a starter for a year or two.

That's an awful lot of rope to give a guy who has already played 70 games for the team and shown no improvement. In fact, Vladar's save percentage, quality starts percentage, and GSAA are all worse this year than last, and were worse last year than the year before. I don't have access at the moment to his GSAx numbers from past years, but this year Moneypuck rates him 91st out of 93 goalies, so it's safe to say he has not improved there either.

[Jason14h]

All the statistically worse goalie in the league needs is more games , or at least 1-2 seasons as a starter …. Insanity

Why is it so hard for some Flames fans to admit it didn’t work with him ? How many more years are we investing in this horrible goalie?

It was a low risk gamble , and he didn’t turn into anything here. It happens all the time around the league . No big deal , and I actually like the gamble on a youngish goalie at the time

However I am hoping for a last place finish next season so I fully support keeping vladar and giving him the starter gig! Should guarantee a bottom 3 finish

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Last night, you'd like a save on the Nichushkin goal. You need a save on the Mittlestadt goal.


Other than that, what's he supposed to do?

If he follows what most of the other players have done I would say ask for a trade.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

All the statistically worse goalie in the league needs is more games , or at least 1-2 seasons as a starter …. Insanity

Why is it so hard for some Flames fans to admit it didn’t work with him ? How many more years are we investing in this horrible goalie?

It was a low risk gamble , and he didn’t turn into anything here. It happens all the time around the league . No big deal , and I actually like the gamble on a youngish goalie at the time

However I am hoping for a last place finish next season so I fully support keeping vladar and giving him the starter gig! Should guarantee a bottom 3 finish

I wouldn’t say make him the starter. But play him 50/50 with Wolf.

If you’re going to kneecap the team by dumping all of your veteran UFAs why in the world would you keep Markstrom. Markstrom ends up being the finger in the dike.

Embrace this wonderous rebuild I keep hearing about. Throw Vladar and Wolf into the fire and lets join the San Jose’s and the Blackhawk’s of the hockey world in the basement of the league.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Goriders

If you’re going to kneecap the team by dumping all of your veteran UFAs why in the world would you keep Markstrom.

Because Markstrom can show Wolf how to be a #1 goalie in the league. Vladar can't, because he has never learned how himself.

Mario Lemieux said the most valuable experience of his career was being on the 1987 Canada Cup team with Gretzky, who showed him how he had to play to win a championship. Crosby said the same thing about his rookie year with Lemieux.

Institutional memory is a real thing, and it's important. And it is very, very hard to rebuild once it's been lost.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by neo45

A few insiders have reported that he could fetch a 2nd round pick. I don’t really get it but that would be cool. Seravalli, who is usually pretty accurate on our trade returns, is high on him. I think also Lebrun or Friedman recently mentioned the 2nd rounder being the ask

Just seems high based on his numbers

That was around October and no one bit on the Flames bluff. Since about December or so the insiders changed their tune and confirm the Flames can't get much of anything for him.

I guess I don't blame them for trying but at some point getting Wolf into the NHL groove is more important than continuing to have him buried for the sake of trying to turn an investment of a 3rd into a 2nd.