Occupy HK/Umbrella Protest

[Rerun]

I heard on the radio today that the China media is portraying the protesters as "thousands of Hong Kong people come out to celebrate China National Day".

[Northendzone]

I know my office shut down for a couple of hours to celebrate them same thing........we are looking forward to celebrating Hong Kong day tomorrow and many other holidays over the next week or so......

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

A tough military crackdown isn't that likely. In Hong Kong, China does not have any of the censorship control that they do on the mainland. The international community, as well as the international press, will be observing. Right now China's great firewall is full of holes with news getting back to the Mainland quite easily despite strong filtering. If a crackdown were to happen the entire world would see it, as well as a good number of their own citizens, which would cause unrest at home and abroad since the protesters have been clean, peaceful and there is zero looting or violence against authorities. What minuscule support the Beijing government had in HK would quickly melt away as well.

Tough military crackdowns will cause two things. Strong international condemnation w/ dire economic consequences and news of the crackdown spreading at home. Both of which are not desirable for China. With so much press and international attention on HK, China cannot afford another crackdown scandal or else they will jeopardize the trade deals that are the life blood of the Communist party.

Recent surveys of Chinese citizens show that the Communist party is only staying in power with their citizens (w/ relatively little unrest) because of the continued strong economic growth and standard of living increases. This is placating some of the Chinese citizen's calls for greater autonomy and democracy. Will they risk cracking down on HK and cause a domino effect of economic downturn and increased domestic unrest? This is something I don't think the Chinese central leadership will risk given the whole amounts of visibility into this area of the world. HK is one of the major economic hubs of Asia after all.

CaptainCrunch, you are right that the Chinese central leadership doesn't care about the HK people... but what they do care about is maintaining their power and appearance of legitimacy governing the Chinese people (while lining their own pockets). A strong crackdown would be horrible for business for them so to speak, especially against peaceful protesters (For crying out loud... protesters are still doing their homework.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29423147). More than likely there will be some kind of negotiated compromise that they'll scale back on very slowly later through subterfuge and intimidation... though it's not like the Chinese government hasn't backed down before. Last decade Tung Che Wah, the Beijing appointed overlord of HK (Chief Executive), was run out of office when over 500k people marched and protested on the street for his resignation. Beijing did nothing to help out their appointed leader then (despite the HK people basically overthrowing him), there is a good chance they will do nothing drastic now. Giving the protesters what they want on the other hand...

Yeah, I don't think a big military crackdown is likely either, I was just saying it's a possibility of course. Kinda taking a middle of the road posting position there, in case someone who knew more about it told me they thought it might happen. As I mentioned, it would really slow down the economy, which is already suffering a bit right now.

That does make it interesting though, cause I really don't know what the government does in this situation. I can't imagine they give in. There has got to be some middle of the road compromise they might try? Or maybe they are thinking the protesters will tire and give up after time?

I guess it gets interesting tomorrow when the holiday ends. We'll see how much it starts affecting business there. Heard that the major financial companies were setting up sites outside of downtown so they won't have to contend with the protesters to get to work.

Your first post was an excellent rundown. It's very important to note HK isn't the crown jewel it used to be for China. Don't get me wrong, it's still one of the most important and profitable cities there, but it's not near the level of GDP it used to be as you mentioned.

The one thing I mentioned was that the longer they allow the protests, the more it may 'spread' to the mainland by encouraging them or showing them it's possible to 'fight back'. I guess you seem to think that's not as much of a threat? The propaganda net is that tight? Or maybe the culture is still that different? Would love to hear your thoughts, obviously you've got a good grasp on this.

[CaptainCrunch]

A military crackdown isn't likely unless the crowd gets violent or too volatile, or embarrasses the government.

However I wouldn't put it past the MSS to infiltrate some people into the mob to stir it up and give the Chinese government the option to forcefully end the protest.

[bizkitgto]

Can we expect more of these protests and unrest from now until 2047, when HK will be officially absorbed back into China? I don't know 100% of the details, but I thought after 2047 there will only be 'China' no Hong Kong.....if people thought Vancouver house prices got expensive in the 90's we ain't seen nothing yet!

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by bizkitgto

.....if people thought Vancouver house prices got expensive in the 90's we ain't seen nothing yet!

Coming to a street, mall or restaurant near you:

Spoiler!

Actually, this is from Richmond last year:

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Daradon

Yeah, I don't think a big military crackdown is likely either, I was just saying it's a possibility of course. Kinda taking a middle of the road posting position there, in case someone who knew more about it told me they thought it might happen. As I mentioned, it would really slow down the economy, which is already suffering a bit right now.

That does make it interesting though, cause I really don't know what the government does in this situation. I can't imagine they give in. There has got to be some middle of the road compromise they might try? Or maybe they are thinking the protesters will tire and give up after time?

I guess it gets interesting tomorrow when the holiday ends. We'll see how much it starts affecting business there. Heard that the major financial companies were setting up sites outside of downtown so they won't have to contend with the protesters to get to work.

Your first post was an excellent rundown. It's very important to note HK isn't the crown jewel it used to be for China. Don't get me wrong, it's still one of the most important and profitable cities there, but it's not near the level of GDP it used to be as you mentioned.

The one thing I mentioned was that the longer they allow the protests, the more it may 'spread' to the mainland by encouraging them or showing them it's possible to 'fight back'. I guess you seem to think that's not as much of a threat? The propaganda net is that tight? Or maybe the culture is still that different? Would love to hear your thoughts, obviously you've got a good grasp on this.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

A military crackdown isn't likely unless the crowd gets violent or too volatile, or embarrasses the government.

However I wouldn't put it past the MSS to infiltrate some people into the mob to stir it up and give the Chinese government the option to forcefully end the protest.

Yea the decrease in the importance of HK to China is not so much because of a real slowdown in HK growth so much as an exponential and increased focus on development in the rest of mainland China proper. I suspect it'll be similar to the last time. The executive official will get canned or resign... China will allow some sort of deal that will placate a lot of the protesters and cause the movement to lose steam. After a good amount go home, the protest leaders will likely be silenced through threats to the protesters families and the like.

This is a tactic they've used before. Awhile back there was a prominent Canadian Cantonese talk show host who had a knack of leaking insider information about corruption and communist mainland scandals and was an extremely vocal critic of the government. One day after an especially strong rant from him regarding the last chief executive of Hong Kong, he suddenly quit his show and was relegated to doing cooking shows and other small time TV pieces. Rumor was then that someone got to his family overseas.

Propaganda net is tight, but not that tight. People in mainland China are getting news of the situation for sure. But the communist government is passing that off as Hong Kong people coming out celebrating the national holiday

So today the HK protesters have gather in strength with tens of thousands more protesters. They have effective shut off the entire area and surrounded two important government buildings

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29460525

Chinese authorities issued a strongly worded statement filled with many veiled threats as usual.

“Occupy Central” has destroyed the foundations of society in Hong Kong. One of these foundations, the rule of law, is also one of Hong Kong’s core values. An extremely small number of “Occupy Central” people have, for their own self interest, ignored the law. They have incited the masses, paralyzed transportation, disrupted businesses, stirred up conflict, and interfered with the daily lives of Hong Kong people. This has gone so far as to threaten people’s safety, as well as their property. These activists ought to be held legally responsible for this unlawful behavior. Therefore, we first insist that we will resolutely support legal action taken by the government of Hong Kong to defend the Special Administrative Region’s core values and its people. We also advise that those responsible for “Occupy Central” and any other participants stop their illegal activities at once, and restore calm and order.

In Hong Kong, the channels of communication are wide open. Anyone who disagrees with the stance taken by the Standing Committee is more than welcome to use normal, sensible channels of appeal. To communicate, one ought not resort to extremes like “Occupy Central.” This is not communication, it is confrontation. By now, a small number of people in Hong Kong are insistent on resistance and provocation, and in the end they will suffer because of it.

“Occupy Central” has undermined Hong Kong’s unwavering prosperity. The vast majority of people in Hong Kong agree that economic growth and the improvement of people’s livelihoods are the most important challenges facing them today. But “Occupy Central” tosses aside economic growth and people’s wellbeing, and does immediate damage. It’s not fair that Hong Kong’s stock market tumbles day after day, with financial institutions being forced to temporarily shut down some operations. Many organizations have also cancelled trade and social events. The traffic and safety situation now in Hong Kong has led schools to close, even leading to the cancellation of the much-anticipated National Day fireworks. “Occupy Central” has shamed Hong Kong. If it continues, it will undoubtedly damage Hong Kong’s reputation as a hub of international business, directly harming the lives of everyday people.

“Occupy Central” will obstruct Hong Kong’s smooth transition to democracy. The Standing Committee’s August 31 decision on the general election of the Special Administrative Region’s chief executive is based on the provisions of the basic law, and was made with full awareness of the views of all the people of Hong Kong. It was made in accordance with the realities on the ground in Hong Kong, and is favorable to upholding its sovereignty, safety, economic growth, and long-term prosperity. It has unshakable legal status and validity. What the “Occupy Central” activists have done is to harm such legal foundations, impeding the way to the original goal of universal suffrage by 2017.

We hope all people in Hong Kong treasure and defend this favorable phase of stability and growth, act in accordance with basic law and the Standing Committee’s decision, behave reasonably and pragmatically, come to a common understanding, and join together in promoting a transition to democracy that suits the realities on the ground in Hong Kong.

http://qz.com/274425/here-is-the-ful...-to-hong-kong/

I'm not sure the surrounding of the government builds is embarrassing enough right now, though, according to some theories, there is apparently there is a power struggle going on within Chinese communist party that may be pushing for a violent crackdown to discredit the other faction's credibility to govern. Its an interesting view of parts of the communist government that outsiders normally don't have access to, though it could very well just be speculation on the author's part.
http://m.theepochtimes.com/n3/960940...hat-you-think/

[FlameOn]

The protesters are calling for Leung CY, the current executive of HK, to resign due to his actions against the protesters earlier. He has refused so far.

[The Yen Man]

Would mainland Chinese even sympathize with the Hong Kong people even if they knew of the protest? From my experience, there is a lot of tension and disdain between the two groups.

After travelling around in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong, the general sentiment I get is that they they all hate each other. Beijing looks down on both Guangzhou and Hong Kong (Cantonese people in general). Guanghzou hates Hong Kong for looking down on them, and hates Beijing for trying to breed them out. Hong Kong hates Beijing for ruling them and looks down on Guangzhou as no manner hicks from the mainland.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Would mainland Chinese even sympathize with the Hong Kong people even if they knew of the protest? From my experience, there is a lot of tension disdain between the two groups.

After travelling around in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong, the general sentiment I get is that they they all hate each other. Beijing looks down on both Guangzhou and Hong Kong (Cantonese people in general). Guanghzou hates Hong Kong for looking down on them, and hates Beijing for trying to breed them out. Hong Kong hates Beijing for ruling them and looks down on Guangzhou as no manner hicks from the mainland.

Yea well everyone hates each other all over China... People forget that China is not really one homogenous ethnic group, Xinjiang hates Beijing, Gangzhou hates Beijing, HK hate Biejing. Sympathy towards HK is one thing, desire for greater autonomy is another... everyone has a common hate for Beijing after all and may view it as an opportunity to fight back against Beijing for their own misgivings while Beijing is pre-occupied elsewhere. This is a possibility, though unlikely... depends on how much information gets out and how motivated the dissenters are.

[CaptainCrunch]

O'Brien: If you want a vision of the future, Winston, imagine a boot stamping on a human face forever.

[alan21]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Would mainland Chinese even sympathize with the Hong Kong people even if they knew of the protest? From my experience, there is a lot of tension and disdain between the two groups.

After travelling around in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong, the general sentiment I get is that they they all hate each other. Beijing looks down on both Guangzhou and Hong Kong (Cantonese people in general). Guanghzou hates Hong Kong for looking down on them, and hates Beijing for trying to breed them out. Hong Kong hates Beijing for ruling them and looks down on Guangzhou as no manner hicks from the mainland.

That is the general attitude that I have experienced as well.

My family actually left HK due to the uncertainty of HK being under China's rule back in 1997.
I'm actually surprised by all these protesters that have come out and try and have their voice heard.

I'm waiting for this to get out of control with either the HK police force joining with the protesters or this all becomes violent and we will see the military move in and possibly move up that 2047 date of absorbing HK back into China and not allow it to operate as a separate zone.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Yea well everyone hates each other all over China... People forget that China is not really one homogenous ethnic group, Xinjiang hates Beijing, Gangzhou hates Beijing, HK hate Biejing. Sympathy towards HK is one thing, desire for greater autonomy is another... everyone has a common hate for Beijing after all and may view it as an opportunity to fight back against Beijing for their own misgivings while Beijing is pre-occupied elsewhere. This is a possibility, though unlikely... depends on how much information gets out and how motivated the dissenters are.

Is it a real 'hate' or is it more negative sentiment like we have in Alberta v Quebec?

I would imagine it's neither, but closer to the first? It's world examples like this which you have brought up that I like to point to when people here start whinging about how different and divisive Canada is.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Daradon

Is it a real 'hate' or is it more negative sentiment like we have in Alberta v Quebec?

I would imagine it's neither, but closer to the first? It's world examples like this which you have brought up that I like to point to when people here start whinging about how different and divisive Canada is.

Xinjiang is a genuine hate... That is like will go out and murder people with a meat cleaver if they see that someone is from Beijing. I would characterize Guangzhou and Beijing as something similar to Alberta, Quebec but quite a bit stronger due to Beijing trying to get rid of Cantonese as a language in China through strict migration and education policies.

[FlameOn]

It seems Leung CY is actively being sabotaged in his damage control by his own daughter. Leung CY's own daughter has just posted that she's happy that her $60k diamond necklace was bought with "silly" taxpayer's money.

BEIJING: The daughter of Hong Kong chief executive CY Leung has poured a good amount of cold water on China's carefully crafted public relations strategy to persuade agitating youth to end their agitation.

The daughter, Chai Yan Leung, said in a Facebook post that her diamond necklace was bought on "silly" tax payer's money.

Showing the origin of the post as 'Government House, Hong Kong', Chai Yan challenged those who taunted her new necklace.

"The necklace on my profile pic is not a dog collar, silly!!!" she said. "This is actually a beautiful necklace bought at Lane Crawford (yes - funded by all you HK taxpayers!! So are all my beautiful shoes and dresses and clutches!! Thank you so much!!!!)".

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/w...w/44115995.cms

Even if it was mostly just a youth protest before, these statements are going to fan the anger among other demographics. It also gives the ICBC (HK's anti corruption bureau) and Beijing an excuse to remove him from power on charges of corruption



Wow... what a spoiled little child. Total attitude problems and still complaining that other people don't know what it's like to be rich.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

It seems Leung CY is actively being sabotaged in his damage control by his own daughter. Leung CY's own daughter has just posted that she's happy that her $60k diamond necklace was bought with "silly" taxpayer's money.



http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/w...w/44115995.cms

Even if it was mostly just a youth protest before, these statements are going to fan the anger among other demographics. It also gives the ICBC (HK's anti corruption bureau) and Beijing an excuse to remove him from power on charges of corruption

That might be the best possible face-saving (and we know how important face-saving is in China generally and for the CPC in particular) exit strategy for Beijing. It might give the protesters enough to walk away while allowing Beijing not to bend on the screened-candidate front?

Although, in reality, that would be a pretty hollow outcome for the protesters.

[CaptainCrunch]

Conspiracy theorist in me says that she didn't write that, or that she wrote it under some duress.

The timing is way to convenient and it reads like a stereotypical character in a bad romance novel.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Conspiracy theorist in me says that she didn't write that, or that she wrote it under some duress.

The timing is way to convenient and it reads like a stereotypical character in a bad romance novel.

Having lived in China for a number of years (and having studied modern Chinese history), I must admit that your conspiracy theory is not implausible.

[CaptainCrunch]

I'm just saying that maybe we should be counting her fingers and toenails.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I'm just saying that maybe we should be counting her fingers and toenails.

Subterfuge and intimidation... China's MO.

Though the number of these corrupt government officials that have little princelings and princesses that have a total disconnect w/ the problems of the common people is astounding and is also within the realm of possibility. Though it's very poorly timed.