10-29-2022, 05:40 PM
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#3781
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
And not all markets all the time. You can get a bubble so big that it wipes out decades of returns. If the Nikkei goes up another 30% or so it'll be back to even from its all time high - which was in 1989 (over 30 years ago). And it's not like Japan is a weak economy or had political upheaval during that period (if you include those there are LOTS of markets with similar characteristics for many decades: Argentina, Spain/Italy, etc).
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The statement isn’t that it will go up. It’s that the Dollar cost averaging will out perform market timing.
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10-29-2022, 06:40 PM
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#3782
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
The statement isn’t that it will go up. It’s that the Dollar cost averaging will out perform market timing.
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The implicit assumption in DCA is that the trend is upwards over time. In North America that has been true since the beginning of stock markets. That doesn't make it an immutable law.
It's also quite difficult to statistically determine how good at market timing to make a backrest. If you made it perfect it would hugely outperform (but that's obviously unrealistic). On the other hand, market levels are at least partially psychology so technical indicators that market historians use as a proxy for market timing tend to be poor.
It's like the old "if you miss the best/worst ten days" commentary. It's nearly impossible to miss only one set because they generally take place at the same time during periods of high volatility (generally at lows).
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10-30-2022, 06:47 AM
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#3783
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
The implicit assumption in DCA is that the trend is upwards over time. In North America that has been true since the beginning of stock markets. That doesn't make it an immutable law.
It's also quite difficult to statistically determine how good at market timing to make a backrest. If you made it perfect it would hugely outperform (but that's obviously unrealistic). On the other hand, market levels are at least partially psychology so technical indicators that market historians use as a proxy for market timing tend to be poor.
It's like the old "if you miss the best/worst ten days" commentary. It's nearly impossible to miss only one set because they generally take place at the same time during periods of high volatility (generally at lows).
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The underlying assumption is that you can’t predict a lost decade rather than improving markets.
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10-30-2022, 04:27 PM
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#3784
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Lifetime Suspension
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Liquidated all of my DOGE on Friday, felt kinda bad about it. Holy carp on a stick it's tanking today. Got lucky.
Still slightly down on Rivian.
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10-30-2022, 05:20 PM
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#3785
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler
Still slightly down on Rivian.
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My EV plays (LEV and VMC) are completely dog sh*t as are my clean tech, green energy holdings.
Should have stuck to Oil and Gas as I can't really miss with them.
__________________
It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?
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10-30-2022, 07:46 PM
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#3786
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleK
My EV plays (LEV and VMC) are completely dog sh*t as are my clean tech, green energy holdings.
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I'm very certain that will change only a matter of how long.
Quote:
Should have stuck to Oil and Gas as I can't really miss with them.
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I've never owned conventional energy stocks not my smartest non move.
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10-30-2022, 09:12 PM
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#3787
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
The underlying assumption is that you can’t predict a lost decade rather than improving markets.
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Not really. If the general trend in markets was flat with large up and down swings DCA averaging would produce zero returns. That's why, for example, nobody suggests putting a specific amount into roulette bets from your paycheck every month. In North American markets the trend has been upwards for generations, with wide swings that have made DCA more profitable.
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11-02-2022, 01:22 PM
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#3788
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Lifetime Suspension
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Markets are not too pleased with Jarmoe Powell's little talk.
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The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to zamler For This Useful Post:
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11-02-2022, 02:09 PM
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#3789
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler
Markets are not too pleased with Jarmoe Powell's little talk.
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Haha, thanked particularly for "Jarmoe"!
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11-02-2022, 02:32 PM
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#3790
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Shanghai
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The real Jarmoe would spin things to sound optimistic. He would never close a press conference by saying the chances of a soft landing have narrowed.
__________________
"If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can't it get us out?"
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The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to JohnnyB For This Useful Post:
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11-02-2022, 04:10 PM
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#3791
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler
Markets are not too pleased with Jarmoe Powell's little talk.
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Crazy 4% intra day swing
__________________
It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?
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11-03-2022, 08:11 AM
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#3792
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: N/A
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For the past 2 months all I've been doing is writing covered calls and raising cash. Working out well so far and I think in this market its a good time to do it. Been called only once.
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11-03-2022, 09:02 AM
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#3793
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Franchise Player
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I'm feeling not too bad about my Boeing recommendation last week. Up nearly 10% in a bad week. But this isn't one I'd flip, so that doesn't mean much.
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11-03-2022, 11:51 PM
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#3794
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Franchise Player
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Chinese markets popping. Should be a strong open Friday.
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11-04-2022, 06:35 AM
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#3795
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Vernon, BC
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makes sense why oil prices are up 4% pre market.
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11-04-2022, 08:35 AM
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#3796
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First Line Centre
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Both Canada and USA with strong jobs numbers. If this continues BoC will keep interest rates elevated for long if not raise it.
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11-04-2022, 12:12 PM
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#3797
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Seattle, WA
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RNW missed and is yeilding almost 7%.
If you need a renewable company in your portfolio I'd give them a look. There is some good news baked in related to the repairs of the Kent Hills wind facility. I would expect them to recoup the costs through litigation.
__________________
It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?
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11-09-2022, 10:52 AM
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#3798
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Lifetime Suspension
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If you hold
AMZN
AAPL
NFLX
GOOG
TSLA
NIO
XPEV
XPeng
LCID
RIVN
F
DIS
RBLX
COIN
BILI
Don't look at your portfolio.
Amazon and Tesla hit 52 week lows. Whoa AFRM is down over 20%.
Last edited by zamler; 11-09-2022 at 10:55 AM.
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11-09-2022, 10:59 AM
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#3799
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Pickle Jar Lake
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TSLA down ~40% since mid Sept. Guess the market doesn't really like the Twitter purchase.
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11-09-2022, 11:07 AM
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#3800
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz
TSLA down ~40% since mid Sept. Guess the market doesn't really like the Twitter purchase.
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Tesla killer Lucid is down 20%. Today.
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