2017/2018 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

7 million for Nylander?!?! Good god the Leafs will be in cap hell once all those guys are signed. If Ny is at the very least 7 mill and Matthews is making more than Mc######vid (13 mill?) than that means Marner is at least gonna cost 8 mill.

That's 28 to 30 mill just for their top 3 forwards alone and Marleau is making 6.25 mill too for two years after this... expensive no doubt.

Why are teams in such a hurry to sign all their young players to these massive deals? You can just see the Leafs heading down the same road as the Oilers where they will have 35% of their salary cap tied up in Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. I'm not sure if having such a large portion of salary cap tied up into a few players is the way to build a perennial cup contender. Seems like it's going to yield a year to year thing where if these teams have ELC's overachieve and strike gold on cheap UFA's they can be a really good team and if all of those things don't happen then result in a mediocre top heavy team.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Why are teams in such a hurry to sign all their young players to these massive deals? You can just see the Leafs heading down the same road as the Oilers where they will have 35% of their salary cap tied up in Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. I'm not sure if having such a large portion of salary cap tied up into a few players is the way to build a perennial cup contender. Seems like it's going to yield a year to year thing where if these teams have ELC's overachieve and strike gold on cheap UFA's they can be a really good team and if all of those things don't happen then result in a mediocre top heavy team.

It does seem to be the approach for a few teams. Hope that your elite players dominate and then the other guys just need to plug up the ice and play close to even.

[BrownDrake]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Why are teams in such a hurry to sign all their young players to these massive deals? You can just see the Leafs heading down the same road as the Oilers where they will have 35% of their salary cap tied up in Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. I'm not sure if having such a large portion of salary cap tied up into a few players is the way to build a perennial cup contender. Seems like it's going to yield a year to year thing where if these teams have ELC's overachieve and strike gold on cheap UFA's they can be a really good team and if all of those things don't happen then result in a mediocre top heavy team.

I think the game has changed so much with speed etc., the big contract used to be the 7 year deal from age 27 or 28 to 34/35 now it appears in your 30's you don't get paid. Maybe the new move is to sign the big 7-8 year contract between 21-22 years of age taking them to 30 years old. The bridge contract is going the way of the dinosaur. Will be the reason for the next lock-out and I'm sure it will be addressed hence the push by these players and agents to do these longer term deals more now than ever. Owners probably push for a second contract after the ELC that's capped or the ELC is bumped from 3 to 4 or 5 years.

[JerryUnderscore]

These teams are using the Chicago model. Sign your best players to long-term high cap deals and find a rotating cast of $1M players to fill out the bottom of the roster.

I don't know that's the best way to go but it's probably better than having a $10M fourth line.

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by Wyguy

What kind of number should we expect for Chucky? I was thinking 3m but I doubt many people have him that low. 3m for 6 that is.

Tkachuk can't sign a new deal until this coming July 1st and his agent will be smart enough to let his entire ELC play out before signing a new deal. The Flames would probably want to sign his next contract as soon as possible but Chucky's going to get better and better. Having that third year to show trajectory will be useful for his camp.

All that to say that it's way to early to speculate about his next contract. We have almost two full years of work to see before that next contract.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by JerryUnderscore

These teams are using the Chicago model. Sign your best players to long-term high cap deals and find a rotating cast of $1M players to fill out the bottom of the roster.

I don't know that's the best way to go but it's probably better than having a $10M fourth line.

But Chicago waited until they were actual proven elite players before giving them the massive contracts.

Nobody can take what Draisaitl did last year away from him, but given he played wing and not center for a good chunk of his production and that he only did it in one year to date they really jumped the shark in that negotiation and messed up the league.

The Bruins held firm on Pastrnak and other GMs have to do the same.

Be less worried about a guy potentially leaving in free agency after six years to keep the sanity in check on these lengthy deals at too high a cap hit.

[Tinordi]

The market is rebalancing to pay the best players the most money. In this case the best players are those aged 21-28 years old. In the old days you paid big money to players based on what they did in the past. Now that money is going to an anticipation of what players will do in the future. Both methods of compensation have equal and opposite problems of making the wrong bet.

The anti competitive RFA rules in the league are pricing to be only a minor blip holding back the animal spirits or the invisible hand of the market. I think every GM realizes that the most probable path to success is with elite young talent locked down with cost certainty.

What people conflate is in the old days there was no salary cap meaning that a big 'oops' contact didn't hurt anyone besides ownership and budget teams. That's not a function of the compensation schedule of playing for past or potential, it's a result of the cap.

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But Chicago waited until they were actual proven elite players before giving them the massive contracts.

Nobody can take what Draisaitl did last year away from him, but given he played wing and not center for a good chunk of his production and that he only did it in one year to date they really jumped the shark in that negotiation and messed up the league.

The Bruins held firm on Pastrnak and other GMs have to do the same.

Be less worried about a guy potentially leaving in free agency after six years to keep the sanity in check on these lengthy deals at too high a cap hit.

Yeah, I'm not saying it's the way to go. Chicago looks hamstrung at this point.

It would be interesting to go back and look at the salary structure of each Stanley Cup winner in the cap era. How top heavy was each team?

I might have an afternoon project...

[Buff]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Insider trading:
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/insider-...tthews~1230997

Dreger suggests that Matthews may get more than McDavid. Watch the video for the logic.

My thought process on that:
Matthews more than McDavid? Yeah, maybe... no, wait. It's a comparison to McDavid.... Matthews won't get more than McDavid, how could that happen? Oh wait, "Dreger suggests". Yeah, not bloodly likely. I wouldn't doubt if he gets close, but he won't surpass McDavid's cap hit.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But Chicago waited until they were actual proven elite players before giving them the massive contracts.

They also haven't made it out of the first round of the playoffs since those contracts kicked in.

[t0rrent98]

Anybody hear that Jagr may call it quits after 10 games? Apparently Jagr made the decision himself... That's definitely a little disappointing if he does call it quits... I think he just needs more time to stretch out those legs...

[GioforPM]

The biggest problem with these large contracts for me is what it does for still useful older players. It's already started to happen. Soon, a guy like Frolik will find himself unable to get a spot or else will have to sign for league minimums.

[AC]

Originally Posted by t0rrent98

Anybody hear that Jagr may call it quits after 10 games? Apparently Jagr made the decision himself... That's definitely a little disappointing if he does call it quits... I think he just needs more time to stretch out those legs...

Where are you getting this from?

The only thing I've seen is this dumb tweet:

@TSNSimmer
Give Jagr 10 games. If he's not feeling it. I think he steps away. @TSN1200

[t0rrent98]

Originally Posted by AC

Where are you getting this from?

The only thing I've seen is this dumb tweet:

@TSNSimmer
Give Jagr 10 games. If he's not feeling it. I think he steps away. @TSN1200

Yeah that's where I saw it from too. Just had to ask.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by AC

Where are you getting this from?

The only thing I've seen is this dumb tweet:

@TSNSimmer
Give Jagr 10 games. If he's not feeling it. I think he steps away. @TSN1200

Is that Craig Simpson??

If so, what the heck gave him the notion to post that?

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by t0rrent98

Anybody hear that Jagr may call it quits after 10 games? Apparently Jagr made the decision himself... That's definitely a little disappointing if he does call it quits... I think he just needs more time to stretch out those legs...

Where did you hear this?

Massively disappointing but not super surprising if true, he looked totally gassed after the LA game and seems to be taking a lot of time just to get into game shape. Maybe not dissimilar to the Theo comeback attempt - still a great player who makes for a fun story, but the legs just aren't there anymore.

Hoping it's just a matter of getting the conditioning back after spending most of the summer off.

[AC]

Originally Posted by t0rrent98

Yeah that's where I saw it from too. Just had to ask.

So where did your "apparently Jagr made the decision himself" line come from?

Originally Posted by Karl

Is that Craig Simpson??

If so, what the heck gave him the notion to post that?

No, Craig doesn't work for TSN. It's from Shawn Simpson, a nobody as far as TSN employees go.

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by t0rrent98

Anybody hear that Jagr may call it quits after 10 games? Apparently Jagr made the decision himself... That's definitely a little disappointing if he does call it quits... I think he just needs more time to stretch out those legs...

Did Jagr actually say that? I thought it was nothing but idle speculation.

Jagr said it will take him some time to get back to game shape.

[Savvy27]

Originally Posted by t0rrent98

Anybody hear that Jagr may call it quits after 10 games? Apparently Jagr made the decision himself... That's definitely a little disappointing if he does call it quits... I think he just needs more time to stretch out those legs...

I'm pretty sure that was just speculation from a random TSN radio guy. Jagr has been clear all along that he knows he is going to need time to get up to speed. The Flames were happy enough with how he performed that he ended up with 13 minutes of ice time instead of the 10-11 that they planned on giving him.

It seems to me that the media are overreacting to one game where everyone who was paying any attention at all knew he was going to be a step behind. There is a ridiculous Justin Bourne article in the The Athletic where goes off about how terrible Jagr looked and then qualifies it with a wait-and-see caveat.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by t0rrent98

Anybody hear that Jagr may call it quits after 10 games? Apparently Jagr made the decision himself... That's definitely a little disappointing if he does call it quits... I think he just needs more time to stretch out those legs...

Originally Posted by AC

Where are you getting this from?

The only thing I've seen is this dumb tweet:

@TSNSimmer
Give Jagr 10 games. If he's not feeling it. I think he steps away. @TSN1200

Originally Posted by t0rrent98

Yeah that's where I saw it from too. Just had to ask.

How did you ever come up with "apparently Jagr made the decision himself" from that tweet? That's an incredible leap.