Why do the forecasts suck so badly for Calgary? Rain at 10am, then rain at 3pm, now rain at 10pm? Why do they seem to be so consistently wrong at forecasting?
Yeah, and while I get it's a hard thing to predict especially in these parts and prone to going sideways, it's not even an understandably inconsistent thing at this point. Just consistently wrong every time the past few weeks. I don't get it..
Why do the forecasts suck so badly for Calgary? Rain at 10am, then rain at 3pm, now rain at 10pm? Why do they seem to be so consistently wrong at forecasting?
I knew a meteorologist who said about Calgary "that s*** that comes over the mountains, that's not weather." She said that basically they can forcast the wind and temperature reasonably well, but predicting precipitation based on what's just over the mountains is near impossible. That was probably a decade ago, when the industry was less reliant on computer-modelling, but it seems like heavy computer-modelling hasn't made it any easier to forcast.
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100 years of improper forest management will take some time to make up for. But once all of that burns I think you return to more normal forest cycles.
You could maybe make a point that silviculture decisions makes forest fire burn more land or maybe burn hotter, but I don't think changing that affects the fact that we've had 3 of the driest springs on record combined with some of the hottest summers ever. I mean, the key determinant for whether or not there's a fire risk is precipitation and temperature. Trees don't spontaneously combust
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I knew a meteorologist who said about Calgary "that s*** that comes over the mountains, that's not weather." She said that basically they can forcast the wind and temperature reasonably well, but predicting precipitation based on what's just over the mountains is near impossible. That was probably a decade ago, when the industry was less reliant on computer-modelling, but it seems like heavy computer-modelling hasn't made it any easier to forcast.
I took a violent weather course in University and that's almost word for word what the prof said at the time. The airflows in that corridor are virtually impossible to predict
Yeah, this is looking really, really bad for the summer. Undercoverbrother will be happy because literally all he cares about is heat even if the entire forest burns up around him, but for everyone else, she ain't looking good. We need those spring and early summer rains and they just aren't happening.
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Yeah, this is looking really, really bad for the summer. Undercoverbrother will be happy because literally all he cares about is heat even if the entire forest burns up around him, but for everyone else, she ain't looking good. We need those spring and early summer rains and they just aren't happening.
mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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Captain James P. DeCOSTE, CD, 18 Sep 1993
You could maybe make a point that silviculture decisions makes forest fire burn more land or maybe burn hotter, but I don't think changing that affects the fact that we've had 3 of the driest springs on record combined with some of the hottest summers ever. I mean, the key determinant for whether or not there's a fire risk is precipitation and temperature. Trees don't spontaneously combust
Add in the fact that fully 50% of the forested area in BC is inoperable, but hey let's blame forest management!!!
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You could maybe make a point that silviculture decisions makes forest fire burn more land or maybe burn hotter, but I don't think changing that affects the fact that we've had 3 of the driest springs on record combined with some of the hottest summers ever. I mean, the key determinant for whether or not there's a fire risk is precipitation and temperature. Trees don't spontaneously combust
For sure the likelyhood of fires increases as we dry.
But we spent years fighting forest fires and not letting things burn. There is a whole bunch of forest that should have burned down already that hasn’t burnt down yet.
So in the future we should reach a lower steady state of forest fires than peak.
Yeah, this is looking really, really bad for the summer. Undercoverbrother will be happy because literally all he cares about is heat even if the entire forest burns up around him, but for everyone else, she ain't looking good. We need those spring and early summer rains and they just aren't happening.
Yup, it's going to be a dry and dusty July and August, we've seriously had next to go rain days. One, maybe? It's insanely terrible.
