Craig Conroy and "The Dallas Model"

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

A Canadian team hasn't won a cup for over 30 years. It's about time Canadian owners, management teams, and fans take a step back and realize that (outside the Flames possibly being a replay away from Cup) that it's not bad luck and simply the fact that Canadian organizations are not run the same. Canadian teams simply haven't accepted the model that has delivered Stanley Cups to the Hawks, Penguins, Lightning, Avalanche, etc. The fact that Conory is even discussing the Dallas model simply shows how hopeless the situation is for Canadian fans.

I assume you mean by this, tanking.

Montreal, Ottawa, and Edmonton have tanked. Hard. Edmonton was tanking for more than half of the entire 30-year drought.

Toronto tanked for a while too.

Tear-down rebuild does not equal cups - for every team that it results in success (CHI, TBL, PIT), there are 2 teams for whom it didn't.

I think the bigger factor for Canadian teams is that they are less desirable as destinations. Having to pay more for players is a distinct disadvantage.

[Savvy27]

My interpretation of what Conroy meant by the Dallas model was that they used every lever available to them, draft picks/signings/trades/waivers/reclamation projects to re-tool after falling to 24th overall in 2016-17. They bounced back to 92 points but missed the playoffs in 2017-18, and were back in a wildcard spot in 2018-19. They went on an unlikely run in the 2020 playoffs, but it really took them until last season to start competing for the division title and returning to contender status.

Having taken a pretty in-depth look at the Dallas Model, I think the Flames are taking a slightly different approach by focusing more on players that were being under-utilized like Nils Lundqvist. This is likely a result of having a few weak drafts in recent years (Zary and Pospisil being the only impact players for the Flames in the NHL drafted after 2016, so far).

It's a long road back to contention, even if things go right like they did for Dallas, but they did demonstrate that there is a path that doesn't involve lingering at the bottom of the league for an extended period. And as much I get tired of people insisting that top picks are necessary, the Heiskanen pick was immediately huge for them and at 20 years old he was third on the team in scoring and leading them on the back end to the Stanley Cup final.

Dallas Starts Depth Chart
Robertson - Hintz - Pavelski
Marchment - Duchene - Seguin
Benn - Johnston - Stankoven
Faksa - Steel - Dadonov

Harley - Heiskanen
Lindell - Tanev
Suter - Lundkvist

Oettinger
Wedgewood

Current Dallas Stars roster composition:
11 Draft Picks (Top 5: 1 / Mid-first: 3 / Late first: 1 / 2nd RD: 3 / Later: 2)
8 Free Agent Signings
5 Trades


Let's see how they got to be a Stanley Cup Contender:

Dallas Draft Picks:
Miro Heiskanen 2017 3rd OVR
Radek Faksa 2012 13th OVR
Ty Dellandrea 2018 13th OVR
Thomas Harley 2019 18th OVR
Wyatt Johnston 2021 23rd OVR
Jake Oettinger 2017 26th OVR (Dallas traded up to get this pick 29th+70th)

Roope Hintz 2015 2nd RD
Jason Roberston 2017 2nd RD
Logan Stankoven 2021 2nd RD
Esa Lindell 2012 3rd RD
Jamie Benn 2007 5th RD

Very impressive, particularly 2017 where they acquired an all-star forward, franchise D, and franchise G in one draft. Hintz was a brilliant pick in the 2nd round. Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley and Logan Stankoven look like great picks too.


Free Agents:
Mason Marchment 2022 4YR $4.5M NTC
Joe Pavelski 2019 signed 3YR $7.0M then re-signed for $3.5M
Matt Duchene 2023 signed 1YR $3.0M after buyout by Nashville
Craig Smith 2023 signed 1YR $1M
Sam Steel 2023 signed 1YR $850k
Ryan Suter 2021 signed 4YR $3.6M after buyout by Minnesota
Jani Hakanpaa 2021 signed 3YR $1.6M
Derek Pouliot 2023 signed 1YR $775k

Mason Marchment does fit into the suggestion that Dallas is a preferred destination. He was coming off of an incredible season in Florida in 2021-22 where he scored 47 points in 54 games and reached UFA at 27 years old. Year 1 wasn't that great but he's bounced back with a nice 22G 31A season this year. That was a player who had a great contract year and chose Dallas who offered a reasonable $4.5M AAV and kicked in an NTC.

The Pavelski signing was the best one. He's been so solid for them and San Jose just let their captain walk after he scored 38 goals in 75 games. Pretty crazy looking back. Dallas had just made it to the second round, so he did join a team that looked like it was on it's way to contention. They also gave him an NMC/NTC in the last year plus a raise on the $6M AAV he had in San Jose.

Suter and Duchene are very interesting since they were both bought out by prior teams and signed for a bit of a discount. They offered Suter quite a lot considering he was a buyout candidate and 35+, including 4 years at $3.6M with a full NMC. Duchene on the other hand seems to have preferred Dallas as a choice since he signed for only 1 year at $3M with no trade protection.

I don't think the other signings are significant to review, every team is able to sign those types of deals.

Conclusion: Dallas does seem to have some cache as a destination, as the Marchment and Duchene signings demonstrate, yet they are still giving out lengthy contracts at the upper end of value along with NMC's and NTC's to players they covet, so I don't think it is quite the same as Tampa or the Rangers.


Trades:
[Bruins] Tyler Seguin (Matt Fraser, Loui Eriksson, Joe Morrow, Reilly Smith for Rich Peverley, Tyler Seguin, Ryan Button)

[Canadiens] Evgeni Dadonov (Dadonov [$2.5M retained] for Denis Gurianov)

[Flames/Devils] Chris Tanev (Tanev 75% retained, three way trade but Dallas gave up Artem Grushnikov, 2024 2nd, 2026 3rd [only if Dallas makes the final], 2026 4th)

[Rangers] Nils Lundkvist (Nils Lundkvist for 2023 1st, 2025 4th [could have been a third but Lundkvist didn't get 55 cumulative points over these past two seasons])

[Coyotes] Scott Wedgewood (Wedgewood for 2023 3rd [again they had a condition and this time it was met - they made the 2022 playoffs)

The only really noteworthy things I can find here are:
1) they have a good sense of value and will give players a change of scenery
2) they are prolific in attached conditions to trades involving draft picks

The Seguin trade involved a lot of players and may seem lopsided in Dallas's favour but Eriksson was only 28 and was coming off of 4 straight 25+ goal seasons (ignoring the lockout year where he had 12G in 48 games). Add in Joe Morrow who was a highly coveted prospect back then and Reilly Smith and Dallas took a big swing there. Rich Peverley was a good player too.

The Lundkvist trade is probably something that the Flames are looking at with their extra 1st in 2024 and 2026. Dallas grabbed a guy who was drafted in the first round of 2018 and was buried behind an excellent group in NYR, so they jumped at a player who was ready to step into the league. Similar to Miramanov in a way but only 22 years old.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

After taking a look at these moves more closely:

Draft Picks Replicating the draft performance is, unsurprisingly, the tallest task ahead for Conroy and Button. I like Zary, Pospisil, Pelletier, and Coronato a lot, but they are unlikely to become franchise level guys like Heiskanen or likely perennial all-stars like Robertson.

The Flames already have Wolf, so I doubt they are looking for a goalie with their high picks.

Unrestricted Free Agents I'm not sure that I buy the narrative that Calgary can't pull the kind of free agents that a team like Dallas can. Kadri, Markstrom, and Tanev are in the same range that Pavelski, Duchene, and Suter were. This summer, it will probably be hard to attract top-end guys (so they shouldn't try), but once the team looks competitive again and the new building is closer, this is an avenue they would be foolish to ignore. Especially for guys undervalued by the market like Pavelski due to age or Duchene after having been bought out.

Trades The Flames are already making trades for players they feel are buried:
Sharangovich
Kuzmenko
Miromanov
Brzustewicz
Grushnikov


What I like about Conroy's approach to this is that he didn't trade draft picks for these guys. In fact, he was able to acquire picks along with all of these players including two 1sts and a 2nd.

Waivers
Dallas may have tried to pick up a few guys on waivers but I can't find evidence that they stuck around. This makes sense. Unless something strange happens, it's not likely that a Stanley Cup contender would have players that were available on waivers as significant parts of the team. Teams like the Stars lose players on waivers because they have too many appealing players to keep everyone. Hanley and Greer seem more like stop-gaps until guys like Poirier, Solovyov, Brzustewicz, Pelletier, Schwindt, etc., are ready to be everyday players. Pachal is a bit different since he is still pretty young... it'll be interesting to see if he sticks as a regular next year.

Reclaimation projects Duchene may be one, however he was less than two seasons removed from a 43G 86P season. Derek Pouliot and Sam Steel are better examples of that and the results are about what you would expect, though Steel seems to be doing pretty good. Okhotiuk and Hunt fit pretty well into this category and the results are mixed so far.

---------------------------------------------------------------

I've only highlighted the moves made by Dallas that resulted in players that are on the team currently but they tried some other things too.

Trades:
Acquired Ben Bishop at trade deadline 2017
Acquired Marc Methot at draft for 2020 2nd and prospect
Acquired Andrew Cogliano for Devin Shore 2019
Acquired Ben Lovejoy for Carrick and a 2019 3rd
Acquired Mats Zuccarello for 2nd and 3rd draft picks
Acquired Ryan Hartman for Tyler Pitlick
Acquired a 3rd for Jason Dickinson
Acquired 1st (Wyatt Johnston) 2nd (Grushnikov) + 5th for 15th overall
Acquired Vladislav Namesnikov for a 4th in 2022
Acquired Max Domi for Khudobin and a 2nd in 2023

[GullFoss]

Who is going to read that?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Is Dallas even a model? They struck gold with draft. They got a Norris calibre defenceman, a goalie and a 100 point winger.

The idea of stockpiling picks is right, but it sounds like they are open to trading the picks for 18-20 year old players. We need to hit the next 2 drafts and get as many picks as we can get.

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Is Dallas even a model? They struck gold with draft. They got a Norris calibre defenceman, a goalie and a 100 point winger.

The idea of stockpiling picks is right, but it sounds like they are open to trading the picks for 18-20 year old players. We need to hit the next 2 drafts and get as many picks as we can get.

What the Dallas model gives teams is an excuse to give their fanbase on why they do not need a full rebuild.

"See, Dallas turned it around fast. We don't need to be bad for years and years".

Every team would love to be a Dallas and hit gold on every pick in a draft. It just isn't realistic. And with this team, I wouldn't say scouting has been a big strength over the years.

So while it is certainly a possibility we absolutely kill the draft the next couple years and are good 4 years from now, it isn't something you should be banking on.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Actually, his option is the most likely path to a cup. Within 2-3 years of picking high for the first time, rebuilding teams should be adding talent and “going for it,” as that the typical turnaround for most teams in that situation. The teams that take longer are the teams you don’t like when people mention because it’s “lazy” to bring them up or they’re just outliers.

If a team isn’t a contender in year 3-4 after a top pick, they need to rebuild/retool or aggressively add veterans. Most teams that rebuild remain in the middle ground and never really accomplish anything. A big part of this is the fact that Cup winners very often have star-calibre players on entry level deals. As soon as a couple of the young guys are on their second contract, you’re basically in the #### for the foreseeable future and the job becomes significantly more difficult.

Goriders option is best for a cup? goriders has many times this late season/off season expressed that he's done with sucking and wants conroy to be using our excess cap space to bring ufas in and try to compete next season....1/4 season after selling players off at the deadline for the first time in this rebuild.

I mean if you include back to last summer with the tofolli trade that's a one year rebuild before adding ufas and going for it.

[jayswin]

And suggesting that we shouldn't read too much into buffalo/Ottawa and length of rebuild due to ownership/financial issues is a legitimate point.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

6 years is just too long to be stockpiling talent. Even 5 years is too long. At that point you should already be adding through trade and free agency to build around the core you drafted. If you aren’t, you’re likely looking at another rebuild or retool.

By that point, you’re in danger of ruining players, whether by developing them in a losing system or by making them want out. You’re also flirting with cap hell as the core you presumably drafted is out of their ELCs and making the vast majority of your cap. It’s really no surprise that as soon as teams have to pay their star players full ride they start to struggle and fall off. The rare exception is having franchise/generational players as part of that mix.

How many teams were garbage for 6 years from the point they made their first high pick and went on to win the cup or even become contenders with the core they drafted? Genuine question, but my guess is few if any.

If we go by the Gaudreau/Monahan rebuild, Johnny was drafted in 2011. Tkachuk was drafted in 2016.

In between, they drafted Monahan, Bennett, Fox, Andersson, and Kylington.

They added Hamilton in 2015 and finally made their last major addition with the Lindholm/Hanifin trade in 2018.

That’s seven years right there.

Calgary’s “stockpiling of talent” should factor everyone from the Zary draft onward.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

If we go by the Gaudreau/Monahan rebuild, Johnny was drafted in 2011. Tkachuk was drafted in 2016.

In between, they drafted Monahan, Bennett, Fox, Andersson, and Kylington.

They added Hamilton in 2015 and finally made their last major addition with the Lindholm/Hanifin trade in 2018.

That’s seven years right there.

Calgary’s “stockpiling of talent” should factor everyone from the Zary draft onward.

Players are more ready early now. Like Tkachuk. Johnny took time to mature and get NHL ready.

Picking early the draft we should be getting NHL players right away. The clock starts ticking right away because that 2nd contract will make it hard to compete. We had that big 50 win season won the west on the last year of Tkachuk ELC. That was the time to strike for that group.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Players are more ready early now. Like Tkachuk. Johnny took time to mature and get NHL ready.

Picking early the draft we should be getting NHL players right away. The clock starts ticking right away because that 2nd contract will make it hard to compete. We had that big 50 win season won the west on the last year of Tkachuk ELC. That was the time to strike for that group.

Debatable - Tkachuk was ready early.

Slafkovsky wasn’t.

Nemec wasn’t.

Is Adam Fantilli with his 27 points and -21 ready?

[CliffFletcher]

I don’t understand why having a rabid fanbase handicaps efforts to rebuild. Surely it’s much more risky to rebuild in markets where the fans won’t show up when you have a bad team than in markets where you have sellouts or near-sellouts rain or shine.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Debatable - Tkachuk was ready early.

Slafkovsky wasn’t.

Nemec wasn’t.

Is Adam Fantilli with his 27 points and -21 ready?

Look at the teams Fantiili and Slafkosky play for.

Nemec came in a year later.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Players are more ready early now. Like Tkachuk. Johnny took time to mature and get NHL ready.

Picking early the draft we should be getting NHL players right away. The clock starts ticking right away because that 2nd contract will make it hard to compete. We had that big 50 win season won the west on the last year of Tkachuk ELC. That was the time to strike for that group.

It’s not all the common for players drafted in the range the Flames will be picking to contribute right away.

Player drafted 7th to 11th from 2017 to 2020:

Andersson - bust
Mittlestadt - first cracked 50 pts at D+5
Rasmussen - established as middle-six forward at D+4
Tippet - first cracked 50 pts at D+5
Vilardi - established as middle-six forward at D+4

Q Hughes - top-pairing d-man at D+2
Boqvist - bottom pairing d-man at D+3
Kravtsov - bust
Bouchard - top-pairing d-man at D+5
Wahlstrom - third-paring d-man at D+3

Cozens - second-line C at D+2
Broberg - bust
Zegras - top-six winger at D+3
Podkolzin - bust
Soderstrom - bust

Holtz - middle-six winger at D+4
J Quinn - middle-six winger at D+3
Rossi - middle-six winger at D+4
Perfetti - middle-six center at D+3
Askarov - ?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It’s not all the common for players drafted in the range the Flames will be picking to contribute right away.

Player drafted 7th to 11th from 2017 to 2020:

Andersson - bust
Mittlestadt - first cracked 50 pts at D+5
Rasmussen - established as middle-six forward at D+4
Tippet - first cracked 50 pts at D+5
Vilardi - established as middle-six forward at D+4

Q Hughes - top-pairing d-man at D+2
Boqvist - bottom pairing d-man at D+3
Kravtsov - bust
Bouchard - top-pairing d-man at D+5
Wahlstrom - third-paring d-man at D+3

Cozens - second-line C at D+2
Broberg - bust
Zegras - top-six winger at D+3
Podkolzin - bust
Soderstrom - bust

Holtz - middle-six winger at D+4
J Quinn - middle-six winger at D+3
Rossi - middle-six winger at D+4
Perfetti - middle-six center at D+3
Askarov - ?

When I said picking early I meant top 5 probably top 3.

We have to hit our picks, and get more picks. If they want to turn it around in 3 years we can’t have any bad drafts really.

[Savvy27]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I don’t understand why having a rabid fanbase handicaps efforts to rebuild. Surely it’s much more risky to rebuild in markets where the fans won’t show up when you have a bad team than in markets where you have sellouts or near-sellouts rain or shine.

True. I don't think the it was the fans that forced Treliving to jump the gun on the rebuild and start trading away picks. I remember the fans giving the Flames huge ovations even when they lost close games in the early stages of the rebuild.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

If we go by the Gaudreau/Monahan rebuild, Johnny was drafted in 2011. Tkachuk was drafted in 2016.

In between, they drafted Monahan, Bennett, Fox, Andersson, and Kylington.

They added Hamilton in 2015 and finally made their last major addition with the Lindholm/Hanifin trade in 2018.

That’s seven years right there.

Calgary’s “stockpiling of talent” should factor everyone from the Zary draft onward.

I’m not sure what your point is in bringing up the last Flames rebuild.

But, if you’re arbitrarily starting Calgary’s stockpiling of talent at the Zary draft, then good news! They’re already 4 of the 6 years into the stockpiling of talent you’re looking for. Though I have a feeling you aren’t actually talking about drafting 24th overall for a few years.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I don’t understand why having a rabid fanbase handicaps efforts to rebuild. Surely it’s much more risky to rebuild in markets where the fans won’t show up when you have a bad team than in markets where you have sellouts or near-sellouts rain or shine.

If tickets are being sold there won’t be any pressure to accelerate the build. In fact, ownership would love the full house with the cheaper payroll.
The ticket buying public needs to be just as committed (if not more committed) to a rebuild than any of the other parties involved

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by jayswin

And suggesting that we shouldn't read too much into buffalo/Ottawa and length of rebuild due to ownership/financial issues is a legitimate point.

Sure. But it just seems like the list of teams we’re not allowed to use as examples, including Buffalo and Edmonton and Ottawa and Dallas and whoever else is long, but the list of actual examples we can use is short or non-existent.

By all means, point out a team that rebuilt for 4-5 years and didn’t have to hit reset before they magically became contenders. Because most seem to do so pretty quick or not at all.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I don’t understand why having a rabid fanbase handicaps efforts to rebuild. Surely it’s much more risky to rebuild in markets where the fans won’t show up when you have a bad team than in markets where you have sellouts or near-sellouts rain or shine.

Yeah it's used as an excuse. I believe that they're risk-averse and want to play it safe.

It's easier to roll out a consistently middling product that sometimes gets in and sometimes doesn't but has consistently higher numbers.

It's a higher priority to this organization to run a safe business then it is to build a legit contender. It is what it is.

Also I think people overestimate how well CSEC is operated. This isn't even a huge dig as most businesses aren't run as well as people think and im not just refering to hockey ops.

Like many businesses theyre understaffed and overworked. Theirs weird ungainly processes and a culture of ineffective micromanagement.
I believe Conroy is the best man for the jib but I bet he has to do a ton of "managing up". Even how he's framing things in his interviews, you can tell he's treading the line carefully.

It's not as smooth running of a machine as many would hope and I can gurantee there's not a greenlight for competitive at all costs.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by traptor

Yeah it's used as an excuse. I believe that they're risk-averse and want to play it safe.

It's easier to roll out a consistently middling product that sometimes gets in and sometimes doesn't but has consistently higher numbers.

It's a higher priority to this organization to run a safe business then it is to build a legit contender. It is what it is.

Also I think people overestimate how well CSEC is operated. This isn't even a huge dig as most businesses aren't run as well as people think and im not just refering to hockey ops.

Like many businesses theyre understaffed and overworked. Theirs weird ungainly processes and a culture of ineffective micromanagement.
I believe Conroy is the best man for the jib but I bet he has to do a ton of "managing up". Even how he's framing things in his interviews, you can tell he's treading the line carefully.

It's not as smooth running of a machine as many would hope and I can gurantee there's not a greenlight for competitive at all costs.

I am curious as to how much experience you have managing companies.