Craig Conroy and "The Dallas Model"

[Toonage]

We're probably getting Jake Allen back from NJD to be the vet who mentors Wolf and saying good bye to both Markstrom & Vladar for next season.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Ashes

I fully agree with this, and I think our future success will also largely depend on the Flames learning from their own mistakes and fighting the urge to "accelerate" the process. The biggest lessons I've learned from watching this franchise:

- Don't spend big $$$ on FA's until you're ready to compete (1-3 year deals for now, max. Which to Conroy's credit is what he talked about on garbage bag day.)
- Don't let any UFA's walk - get value for them no matter what. draft capital is the lifeblood of the league.
- Don't trade away draft picks (especially 1st rounders) before you're a team on the cusp of competing, and even then sometimes we should hold on to them and keep the pipeline stocked.
- Prioritize skill and compete over everything else at the draft.

Kind of amusing that all of the above are things that Brad Treliving did during the last rebuild and nobody really faulted him for it.

Conroy appears to have his head in the game and there is far less concern from my end that he will be tempted to rush it and do something stupid.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I hope they don't rush it.

The team will be entertaining and on the upswing likely in 2-3 years. Enjoy that period of time and don't jump the shark to get them over the edge before they are ready organically.

Rushing it is the Dallas model though.

When the Stars had their worst season in 16/17, they went and traded for Bishops' rights and signed Radulov in the next offseason.

They literally went out and got the two biggest names on the market.

The Flames were 29th in points percentage from the trade deadline to the end of the regular season. If they want to remain competitive during their rebuild like Dallas was, they are going to have to make some aggressive moves.

If a team doesn't make big moves to improve, they are unlikely to remain "competitive" during a rebuild and then there is a good chance they spend over half a decade rebuilding.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Rushing it is the Dallas model though.

When the Stars had their worst season in 16/17, they went and traded for Bishops' rights and signed Radulov in the next offseason.

They literally went out and got the two biggest names on the market.

The Flames were 29th in points percentage from the trade deadline to the end of the regular season. If they want to remain competitive during their rebuild like Dallas was, they are going to have to make some aggressive moves.

If a team doesn't make big moves to improve, they are unlikely to remain "competitive" during a rebuild and then there is a good chance they spend over half a decade rebuilding.

I guess Dallas may have felt emboldened to do so by winning the lottery. They also had a 24-year-old Tyler Seguin — the Flames don't have a single piece like that.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I guess Dallas may have felt emboldened to do so by winning the lottery. They also had a 24-year-old Tyler Seguin — the Flames don't have a single piece like that.

That, and they are also Dallas.

No one wants to come to Canadian teams when they aren't winning.

[Erick Estrada]

A Canadian team hasn't won a cup for over 30 years. It's about time Canadian owners, management teams, and fans take a step back and realize that (outside the Flames possibly being a replay away from Cup) that it's not bad luck and simply the fact that Canadian organizations are not run the same. Canadian teams simply haven't accepted the model that has delivered Stanley Cups to the Hawks, Penguins, Lightning, Avalanche, etc. The fact that Conory is even discussing the Dallas model simply shows how hopeless the situation is for Canadian fans.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

A Canadian team hasn't won a cup for over 30 years. It's about time Canadian owners, management teams, and fans take a step back and realize that (outside the Flames possibly being a replay away from Cup) that it's not bad luck and simply the fact that Canadian organizations are not run the same. Canadian teams simply haven't accepted the model that has delivered Stanley Cups to the Hawks, Penguins, Lightning, Avalanche, etc. The fact that Conory is even discussing the Dallas model simply shows how hopeless the situation is for Canadian fans.

I don't really buy this. Since 2000, Canadian franchises have appeared in the Stanley Cup Finals in 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011, and 2021 - five times. While not great for Canada's record, it ain't terrible either. Calgary, Edmonton and Vancovuer all could have won their respective series - what happens on the ice in those moments on those games isn't determined by the 'ownership model' of the franchise; it comes down to the play directly on the ice, the players, the coaches, the atmosphere... and often times luck.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Muta

I don't really buy this. Since 2000, Canadian franchises have appeared in the Stanley Cup Finals in 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011, and 2021 - five times. While not great for Canada's record, it ain't terrible either. Calgary, Edmonton and Vancovuer all could have won their respective series - what happens on the ice in those moments on those games isn't determined by the 'ownership model' of the franchise; it comes down to the play directly on the ice, the players, the coaches, the atmosphere... and often times luck.

That's still extremely poor when you consider of the 64 teams have competed in the cup finals in that timespan only 5 times has Canada been represented.

[Bingo]

I've always thought there is something to a rabid fan base, and appeasing the quiet minority.

If you're page three of the sports section you can do the right thing and largely go unnoticed.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

That's still extremely poor when you consider of the 64 teams have competed in the cup finals in that timespan only 5 times has Canada been represented.

I don’t know where you got that number from, but it’s 24 unique teams. 5/24 is almost exactly what you’d expect given the ratio of Canadian teams to American teams.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I've always thought there is something to a rabid fan base, and appeasing the quiet minority.

If you're page three of the sports section you can do the right thing and largely go unnoticed.

There's no doubt that most American teams have the advantage of being able be bad for five year period without fans revolting as there's usually MLB, NBA, NFL in those cities to distract sports fans. In Canada it's hard for teams to hide from fan outcry.

I believe the Athletic a few years ago did the odds of American teams winning 30 straight cups and it was extremely low odds which shows that there's more going on besides randomness. This season is probably the closest we have to a handful of Canadian teams good enough to maybe win. If it doesn't happen this year though then it could go decades longer which is defying odds.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

There's no doubt that most American teams have the advantage of being able be bad for five year period without fans revolting as there's usually MLB, NBA, NFL in those cities to distract sports fans. In Canada it's hard for teams to hide from fan outcry.

I believe the Athletic a few years ago did the odds of American teams winning 30 straight cups and it was extremely low odds which shows that there's more going on besides randomness. This season is probably the closest we have to a handful of Canadian teams good enough to maybe win. If it doesn't happen this year though then it could go decades longer which is defying odds.

Two Canadian teams are ascendant - Toronto and Vancouver. So long as their core players are playing near this level, they will continue to matter and be a problem.

One team has the two best forwards on the planet and if they keep even one of them they will continue to be a problem.

The Jets have their core locked up long term and will be difficult for at least another three years.

4/7 are playoff teams, all of whom can do a lot of damage.

Montreal’s rebuild looks to be on the right track - as someone who’s got Slafkovsky in a keeper league, fears of him being the wrong choice at #1 are completely unfounded. He’s nasty, and he’s only going to get better. Suzuki is underrated, and Caufield is a terrific natural goal scorer.

The Senators have been so bad for so long that at some point, they won’t be able to help themselves from being competitive.

Leaving Calgary. Our ownership’s mentality is often criticized, but fundamentally “try to achieve the best results with the resources you have available” is not wrong. If we had better players, that attitude would carry further.

Even when we’re good, this roster is always one player short. They seem to constantly be playing one guy in the top-6/top-4 who doesn’t belong there. And part of this is because they try and speed things up to avoid the institutional rot that exists in places like Buffalo. Which is understandable, but probably cost them millions in lost playoff revenue.

But there is no speeding this up. Even if we win the lottery and get Celebrini, there’s no way a proper rebuild takes anything less than three years, and even that feels wildly optimistic - Vancouver is only now starting to figure it out, and this is Quinn Hughes’ sixth year in the league.

This takes time.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Two Canadian teams are ascendant - Toronto and Vancouver. So long as their core players are playing near this level, they will continue to matter and be a problem.

One team has the two best forwards on the planet and if they keep even one of them they will continue to be a problem.

The Jets have their core locked up long term and will be difficult for at least another three years.

4/7 are playoff teams, all of whom can do a lot of damage.

Montreal’s rebuild looks to be on the right track - as someone who’s got Slafkovsky in a keeper league, fears of him being the wrong choice at #1 are completely unfounded. He’s nasty, and he’s only going to get better. Suzuki is underrated, and Caufield is a terrific natural goal scorer.

The Senators have been so bad for so long that at some point, they won’t be able to help themselves from being competitive.

Leaving Calgary. Our ownership’s mentality is often criticized, but fundamentally “try to achieve the best results with the resources you have available” is not wrong. If we had better players, that attitude would carry further.

Even when we’re good, this roster is always one player short. They seem to constantly be playing one guy in the top-6/top-4 who doesn’t belong there. And part of this is because they try and speed things up to avoid the institutional rot that exists in places like Buffalo. Which is understandable, but probably cost them millions in lost playoff revenue.

But there is no speeding this up. Even if we win the lottery and get Celebrini, there’s no way a proper rebuild takes anything less than three years, and even that feels wildly optimistic - Vancouver is only now starting to figure it out, and this is Quinn Hughes’ sixth year in the league.

This takes time.

I think you are overestimating Montreal's build. Suzuki is pretty mid-level and Caulfield is a Toffoli type player IMO. You can't like their D much or the goaltending. Building around a winger doesn't work very often.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

There's no doubt that most American teams have the advantage of being able be bad for five year period without fans revolting as there's usually MLB, NBA, NFL in those cities to distract sports fans. In Canada it's hard for teams to hide from fan outcry.

I believe the Athletic a few years ago did the odds of American teams winning 30 straight cups and it was extremely low odds which shows that there's more going on besides randomness. This season is probably the closest we have to a handful of Canadian teams good enough to maybe win. If it doesn't happen this year though then it could go decades longer which is defying odds.

For sure its not completely random.

Great teams generally have a 5-10 year run of being at the top of the standings, so odds of winning a Cup is cyclical over the years. Canadian teams were in 9 of 10 finals in the 80s.

From the mid 90s until the cap era, you had money being a huge deciding factor, and now in the cap era Canadian teams are still disadvantaged by things like rabid fanbase, weather, travel, Americans not wanting to be here, etc.

Canadian teams still have the deck stacked against them, but they are in a better spot in the cap world IMO.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think you are overestimating Montreal's build. Suzuki is pretty mid-level and Caulfield is a Toffoli type player IMO. You can't like their D much or the goaltending. Building around a winger doesn't work very often.

They also have quite a few prospects still coming and draft ahead of us and have an extra 1st in this draft. Their team is very young with players signed to very good long-term deals. Their cap situation is very good this summer. They might not get it done but on paper they are on the right track.

They have some very good looking young d and I bet they draft another 1 in this draft early.

That extra 1st in 2025 could be decent too.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think you are overestimating Montreal's build. Suzuki is pretty mid-level and Caulfield is a Toffoli type player IMO. You can't like their D much or the goaltending. Building around a winger doesn't work very often.

They have a lot of accumulated picks over the next few drafts. Certainly in a much better place than the Flames.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

They have a lot of accumulated picks over the next few drafts. Certainly in a much better place than the Flames.

I would hope they would be in a better spot than a team that is just bottoming out lol

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think you are overestimating Montreal's build. Suzuki is pretty mid-level and Caulfield is a Toffoli type player IMO. You can't like their D much or the goaltending. Building around a winger doesn't work very often.

It’s far from complete - but they were bad again this year, and they’ll get to add another top-5 pick.

They’ll probably get to do that next year too.

Caufield is much faster and shiftier than Toffoli - I like Tyler, but Caufield has 40 goal potential. And Suzuki is very good. Add Berkeley Catton or Lindstrom to Nick Suzuki and that could be a foundational pair of centres.

Slaf had the highest ceiling of any player at the top of the draft, and it looks like he’ll be a star player as advertised.

You don’t just turn down stars because they’re wingers.

Stockpiling talent over a 4-6 year period - that’s clearly their goal, and it’s what ours should be too.

[AustinL_NHL]

Yea one quick glance at Montreal's roster and draft picks and it's easy to like their current situation over ours.

But I trust Conroy, Iggy and co to get the team where it needs to be

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

It’s far from complete - but they were bad again this year, and they’ll get to add another top-5 pick.

They’ll probably get to do that next year too.

Caufield is much faster and shiftier than Toffoli - I like Tyler, but Caufield has 40 goal potential. And Suzuki is very good. Add Berkeley Catton or Lindstrom to Nick Suzuki and that could be a foundational pair of centres.

Slaf had the highest ceiling of any player at the top of the draft, and it looks like he’ll be a star player as advertised.

You don’t just turn down stars because they’re wingers.

Stockpiling talent over a 4-6 year period - that’s clearly their goal, and it’s what ours should be too.

6 years is just too long to be stockpiling talent. Even 5 years is too long. At that point you should already be adding through trade and free agency to build around the core you drafted. If you aren’t, you’re likely looking at another rebuild or retool.

By that point, you’re in danger of ruining players, whether by developing them in a losing system or by making them want out. You’re also flirting with cap hell as the core you presumably drafted is out of their ELCs and making the vast majority of your cap. It’s really no surprise that as soon as teams have to pay their star players full ride they start to struggle and fall off. The rare exception is having franchise/generational players as part of that mix.

How many teams were garbage for 6 years from the point they made their first high pick and went on to win the cup or even become contenders with the core they drafted? Genuine question, but my guess is few if any.